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May 8, 2014
Trade up? 49ers' draft-day scenarios

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Here are three first-day-of-draft scenarios for the 49ers in order of likelihood:

1. Trade up. 52% chance. This is the most likely outcomes for the following reasons: A.) Trent Baalke has done it in the past and it's part of their roster-building strategy - accumulate a lot of picks and then package those picks to target specific players. B.) The team has the means to do it, six selections in the Top 100 slots. C.) It's considered a deep draft, so teams in rebuilding mode might be more apt to exchange a high pick for multiple lower-round picks. How high is Baalke willing to go? My guess he wouldn't part ways with a first- or second-round pick for next year because that would run counter to the team's overall strategy. Therefore, moving into the Top 10 seems unlikely.
Targets: WR Odell Beckham, Jr., CB Justin Gilbert, CB Kyle Fuller

2. Stay put. 26% chance. Sometimes it's hard to find a dance partner. And if pre-draft chatter is even remotely accurate, the 49ers' top target, Beckham, is being eyed by a number of teams. The 49ers had the 30th pick in 2012 and stayed at that spot. If that happens again this year, look for them to take the highest rated receiver or cornerback on their board. Nebraska cornerback Stanley Jean-Baptiste's names has been bandied about as a possibility, but if the team liked Baptiste, they were very discreet about it. Another position would be surprise. But pass rusher always is a possibility.

Targets: WR Cody Latimer, WR Davante Adams, CB Jason Verrett, WR Kelvin Benjamin, WR Jordan Matthews, WR Allen Robinson, OLB Dee Ford, OLB Demarcus Lawrence

3. Trade Down. 22% chance. This is nearly as plausible a scenario because the group of players the 49ers would be eying at pick No. 30 likely would be available early in the second round - but at a cheaper price - as well. A team that passed on a quarterback early in the first round - the Raiders, for example - might want to get back into the round to take that passer. It's conceivable, for example, that Oakland takes Derek Carr at No. 30 and that the 49ers get the Raiders' second-round pick, No. 36, along with an additional pick. The downside of that scenario is that the 49ers would no longer have the benefit of the fifth-year option for that selection.

Targets: WR Cody Latimer, WR Davante Adams, CB Jason Verrett, CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste, WR Kelvin Benjamin, WR Jordan Matthews, WR Allen Robinson, WR Donte Moncrief, OLB Dee Ford, OLB Demarcus Lawrence

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Have last-minute draft questions? I have last-minute draft answers. To find out the latest buzz and who the 49ers spent A LOT of time with in the run-up to the draft, join me on my 11 a.m chat at www.sacbee.com/live.

-- Matt Barrows



MATTHEW BARROWS

Matt was born in Blacksburg, Va., and attended the University of Virginia. He graduated in 1995, went to Northwestern for a journalism degree a year later, and got his first job at a South Carolina daily in 1997. He joined The Bee as a Metro reporter in 1999 and started covering the 49ers in 2003. His favorite player of all time is Darrell Green.

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