Republican strategist Kevin Spillane was blunt today after hearing "California Target Book" publisher Allan Hoffenblum's take on what's in store for the 2010 congressional and state legislative races.
"Does anybody have any razor blades?" Spillane quipped. "I'm going to keep this presentation short."
Hoffenblum's prognosis? It's not looking good for the GOP.
At a conference sponsored by Hoffenblum's publication, the Republican identified eight congressional seats and 13 state Assembly seats as competitive. Nearly all of those Assembly seats and more than half of the congressional seats are now held by Republicans.
"I think this is going to be when we find out if the Republican Party has any life left in it whatsoever as far as being a statewide competitive party," said Hoffenblum, whose publication tracks and handicaps races throughout the state.
A drop in Republican registration and an influx in decline-to-state voters who have not traditionally voted with the GOP have put some districts formerly considered "safe" Republican seats into play.
"I think it's going to be a very, very difficult road on the Republican front if they don't do something about registration, something to appeal to decline-to-state voters, many of whom are Latinos and Asians who have not been voting Republican for the last four election cycles," Hoffenblum said.
President Barack Obama outpolled GOP rival Sen. John McCain in all five Republican-held congressional seats that Democrats are likely to target next year. Obama also outpolled McCain in 12 of the 29 Assembly districts now held by Republicans, including six districts in which GOP incumbents are seeking re-election.
But Republican strategists speaking at a morning panel dismissed the idea that Obama's strong performance at the polls last year is an indicator of how Republicans will fare next year.
"Yes, the Republican Party has serious problems in California ... but having said that, the mistake a lot of people make is fighting the last war," Spillane said. "The turnout is very different in a midterm election than it is in the general election year."
Spillane added that he believes the party's strong fundraising numbers and early efforts to register more voters will help combat the challenges created by the electorate's shifting demographics.
Approval levels for Obama and for the Democratic-controlled Congress have dipped in current months, and opposition to Obama's health care and economic proposals have given a boost to the conservative base.
Democratic pollster David Binder said any nationwide Republican trend would likely be "muted" in California.
But Republican strategist Tim Clark said being in the political minority in a time when the public is unhappy about the direction the country is headed gives Republicans the edge.
"We don't have to atone for the White House nor do we have to atone for a majority in Congress. We're on offense," Clark said. "Barack Obama's done more to unify our party than George Bush did in the last eight years."
Strategists and pollsters on both sides of the aisle agreed on one thing: the strong influence of decline-to-state voters.
"Independents right now, these are the folks who decide most elections in the country," Republican pollster Stephen Kinney said.
An earlier version of this post misspelled David Binder's name. The Bee regrets the error.
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