Capitol Alert: Redistricting pool mostly affluent white male Democrats

UPDATED at 3:00 p.m. to add information about auditor's analysis of data.

The 620 remaining applicants for seats on the state's new redistricting commission are mostly affluent white male Democrats, according to a new statistical study by one of those on the list.

Vladimir Kogan, a refugee from the Soviet Union who later became a journalist and political science scholar, reviewed the on-line profiles of all 620 to create his demographic and political profile. He is a researcher on governance issues for the Lane Center for the American West at Stanford University and a doctoral candidate at the University of California, San Diego.

Kogan found that 67.6 percent of those on the list are non-Latino whites -- roughly comparable to the proportion of the electorate that's white but more than 25 percentage points higher than the white non-Latino proportion of the overall population.

His analysis also determined that 53.3 percent are Democrats -- about nine percentage points higher than Democratic voter registration statewide -- and just 28.9 percent are Republicans, about two points below GOP registration.

Kogan determined that 63.2 percent of the remaining applicants are male, even though the electorate is divided almost evenly by gender, and that over 75 percent have incomes of $75,000 a year or higher.

The state auditor's office received 4,547 complete applications for the redistricting commission, created when voters passed Proposition 11 in 2008. The commission will draw new legislative and Board of Equalization districts based on the 2010 census numbers that will be released next April.

Later this year, the selection panel will narrow the 620 remaining applicants on the list to 60 -- 20 Democrats, 20 Republicans and 20 independents or minor party registrants -- before turning those names over to the Legislature.

Legislative leaders can strike up to 24 of those names. The names of those left will go back to the auditor's office to be narrowed again by a random drawing to eight members, who will choose the remaining six members of the 14-person commission from other applicants still in the pool.

That complex selection process, however, could be altered by measures on the November ballot. One, which has already qualified, would extend the commission's authority to congressional districts. Another, still pending signature verification, would abolish the commission altogether and return redistricting to the Legislature.

Detailed data on the 620 remaining on the list - the basis for Kogan's research - can be found here.

Kogan, by the way, is a white male independent who lists his income as under $35,000 a year - not surprising given that he's a graduate student.

UPDATE: The state auditor's office has posted its own analysis of the current pool of redistricting commission applicants with very slightly different data than Kogan generated but the same overall thrust. It can be found here.

Worth noting: Because the current pool of Democrats is larger than those for Republicans and independents, the remaining Democrats have a smaller chance of making the cut for the next pool of 60.