Democrats are expected to give away a large chunk of their advantage over Republicans in voter registration by failing to cast ballots today.
Though California has far more Democrats than Republicans on voter rolls, 44 percent to 31 percent, the latter tends to participate in elections at a higher rate -- a trend that should continue today, according to a Field Poll released today.
Mark DiCamillo, Field Poll director, said his polling projects turnout of 68 percent for Republicans, 55 percent for Democrats, and 38 percent for independent or minor-party voters.
The bottom line for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman is that Democrats' 13-point lead in voter registration will shrink to a 5 percent advantage in votes cast because of the disparity in turnout, the poll found.
DiCamillo said that the Tea Party movement is expected to bolster Republican turnout this year, with roughly 40 percent of likely California voters indicating at least some identification with the populist protest movement.
"They want to send a message," DiCamillo said of Republicans, whose party hopes to break Democratic control of Congress but is solidly in the minority in California's Legislature.
"And if you're identifying yourself with the Tea Party, you're very likely to be voting," DiCamillo said.
The Field Poll also concluded that:
• Women will cast a slightly higher percentage of votes than men, 51 percent to 49 percent.
• Caucasians will cast 71 percent of all votes, compared to Latinos, 16 percent; African American, 5 percent; and Asian or other minorities, 8 percent.
• A majority of voters will be college graduates, 52 percent, while an additional 30 percent will have attended some college or trade school classes, and 18 percent will have a high school education or less.
Click here for the full results.
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