Two days after Gov. Jerry Brown announced a compromise ballot measure to raise taxes, California's top budget analyst said today that the measure will generate $2.2 billion less next year than Brown has estimated.
The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office estimated in its review of the measure that the tax increase would generate $6.8 billion in fiscal 2012-13. Brown had estimated raising some $9 billion.
The tax initiative, a compromise Wednesday between the Democratic governor and the California Federation of Teachers, would increase the state sales tax less than Brown originally proposed, but include a larger tax increase on California's highest earners. The state Department of Finance has estimated that the revised plan would raise about $2 billion more through June 2013 than Brown's initial plan.
The LAO's analysis is in line with its review of Brown's first tax plan, in which it also estimated lower revenues than Brown did. Finance spokesman H.D. Palmer attributed the difference to the agencies' different revenue forecasts, with the administration anticipating higher revenue from capital gains.