Capitol Alert

Preliminary election results may be in, but some races won't be called until officials can count provisional ballots and mail-in votes that were dropped off at polling places Tuesday.

The secretary of state's office reported that "hundreds of thousands" of votes remain to be counted, but won't have a better idea until counties report this week

A Bee survey showed nearly 800,000 uncounted votes in just nine of the state's 58 counties:

Los Angeles County..........................162,008
San Diego County.............................135,000
Orange County.................................113,119
Riverside County................................49,200
San Bernardino County......................29,800
Santa Clara County................86,600-96,600
Alameda County.................................61,100
Sacramento........................................84,000
San Francisco County........................31,000

These votes could determine a handful of tight legislative, congressional and local races and the fate of Proposition 29 to raise the cigarette tax $1 a pack.

With almost 800,000 votes left to be counted in these nine counties alone, it could be a while before final results are known. County election officials must report their final results to the Secretary of State by State by July 6. The Secretary of State then has until July 13 to certify the results.

Gov. Jerry Brown hardly involved himself in the statewide primary election Tuesday, but in the few contests in which the Democratic governor did endorse a candidate or issue public praise, his record wasn't great.

Carmen Trutanich, Brown's choice for Los Angeles County district attorney, was running third, poised to miss a November runoff. Brown made a robotic telephone appeal for the candidate, who had issued a favorable statement about Brown's prison realignment program.

In the throw-down between Democratic Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman in Southern California's 30th Congressional District, Brown's choice - Berman - finished second. The two will face each other in a runoff in the fall.

Brown issued a public statement praising - though not endorsing - Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher in his bid for mayor of San Diego. Fletcher, who abandoned the Republican Party to become an independent during the campaign, finished third, missing a November runoff.

The candidate Brown publicly praised appeared to be doing better in Assembly District 50, where Assemblywoman Betsy Butler held a narrow lead. Four candidates remain separated by less than 2 percentage points in the race this afternoon.

Gov. Jerry Brown has appointed a labor union representative to be deputy director of legislative affairs at the Department of Personnel Administration.

The appointment of Nancy Farias, legislative director for Service Employees International Union Local 1000 since 2009, comes before the Legislature is expected this summer to consider pension changes proposed by Brown. The appointment was announced by the Democratic governor's office today.

Farias, 39, is registered as having no party preference. The Sacramento resident is to be paid $110,004 a year.

The Legislature is expected to consider public employee pension changes following adoption of the state budget this month.

San Francisco's Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House leader, has said that "the road to the majority runs through California," and she and her colleagues have entertained hopes of picking up a half-dozen or more seats in California while seeking the 25-seat national gain they need to make her speaker once again.

On Wednesday, Democratic and Republican congressional campaign operatives were spinning Tuesday's primary election results. Democrats were claiming "the results are clear" and they "have the opportunity to pick up four to six seats" while their Republican counterparts, citing Pelosi's statement, said, "Democrats drove off the cliff last night."

Spin aside, Tuesday's election was somewhat sobering for the Democrats, who saw a couple of their favored candidates fail to make it to the November runoff.

The most serious Democratic setback was in Southern California's 31st Congressional District, where two Republicans survived the "top-two" primary system and will face each other in November while Democrat Pete Aguilar failed to make the cut.

In the San Joaquin Valley's 21st Congressional District, the anointed Democrat, Blong Xiong, also didn't make it into the runoff, improving Republican David Valadao's chances.

The authoritative Rothenberg Political Report, in an extensive, district-by-district rundown on California, concluded Wednesday that Democratic chances of big gains in California have dimmed markedly.

"With President Obama running at the top of the ticket," Rothenberg said, "California is a critical state. But Yesterday's primary results suggest that Democratic prospects in the state are dimming.

"California is a microcosm of Democrats' difficult road to the majority. Democrats likely need to increase their numbers in the delegation from 34 to 39 seats to have any chance to win back the House later this year. But to do that, they will need to win all 11 California races listed on our competitive race chart, even thought they only have the advantage in six districts while another is a pure toss-up."

For Republican Assemblyman Jeff Gorell, the best route to re-election may be through Afghanistan.

Gorell trounced two Democratic challengers in Tuesday's primary despite missing almost all of the past two-year legislative session because of military deployment to the Middle East.

Gorell was called to duty four months after he joined the Assembly in 2010, and he returned two months ago to find his first term nearly expired and his Ventura County district redrawn.

None of that hurt him Tuesday.

The 41-year-old Camarillo resident captured 58 percent of the vote Tuesday, more than both Democratic challengers combined: Eileen MacEnery received 23 percent of the vote, and Thomas Mullens, 19 percent.

Gorell and MacEnery will run off in November in a district that is almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, 38.3 percent to 37.5 percent, respectively. Nearly 20 percent of voters decline to state a party preference

Tobacco companies have reason to be confident after waking up with a 51-49 lead against an initiative that would raise cigarette taxes by $1 per pack in California, but neither side was prepared to declare the Proposition 29 race over this morning.

The Secretary of State's Office showed the no side with a 63,176 vote lead out of 3.8 million votes counted.

After a night of little sleep, opponents and proponents are calling county election offices throughout California to assess how many mail ballots are left to count - and where. The latter fact may be most relevant to whether the sides consider the race over or wait for more ballots to be counted, since some big counties overwhelmingly swung one way or the other yesterday.

"We're very encouraged with a 63,000 vote lead, but there are obviously ballots still outstanding to be counted," said No on 29 spokeswoman Beth Miller. "We are waiting to get a better assessment of how many ballots are still outstanding and evaluate whether that will have an impact."

Chris Lehman, campaign manager for the Yes on 29 side, acknowledged this morning that proponents have an uphill battle if they are to still win the contest. "This campaign has been about a coalition of cancer survivors and their family members, and they're no stranger to long odds. They're going to vigilantly watch these returns come in and hope for the best."

A Public Policy Institute of California poll showed that 67 percent of voters backed Proposition 29 in March when they were read the ballot language. But that number steadily declined through Election Day. The sides combined spent nearly $60 million in the race, with the tobacco industry-fueled opposition raising nearly $47 million of that.

Lehman said, "$47 million of distortions of the truth tend to have an impact on people. I think they spent a lot of time and an incredible amount of money about something other than tobacco ... and some voters fell for it."

But opponents said the initiative was flawed and appeared to have struck a chord with voters and some editorial boards concerned with how the tax dollars would be spent.

Proposition 29 would raise $735 million annually to pay mostly for cancer research, as well as smoking cessation programs. Backers also highlighted the fact that higher cigarette taxes lead to reduced smoking rates. But opponents compared the spending plan to two previous voter-approved programs for stem-cell research and high-speed rail and questioned why the measure would not raise money for the state budget.

Despite low public approval ratings and California's newly drawn legislative districts, incumbent lawmakers came out big winners Tuesday.

Every incumbent who ran for re-election advanced to the November election.

None received fewer votes than a challenger from the same party.

Tuesday's vote count showed no backlash against a Legislature that recorded only a 22 percent approval rating in a recent Field Poll.

Forty-three incumbent Assembly members were on Tuesday's ballot, of which four ran unopposed. Twelve were challenged by a member of their party, while 27 were not.

Twelve incumbent senators were on the ballot. Two ran unopposed and six were challenged by a member of their party, while four were not.

Under California's new primary system, voters were able to cast ballots for candidates of any party, with the top two vote-getters qualifying for the November general election.

Nearly two-thirds of the 87 local government and school tax and bond measures on Tuesday's ballot passed, according to a compilation by the League of California Cities.

Tax and bond measures requiring less than two-thirds vote margins did particularly well, including 10 of 11 city tax measures. But just two of eight city taxes requiring two-thirds approval made it, according to data compiled by Michael Coleman, a financial adviser to the city government lobbying organization.

Overall, 55 of the 87 revenue and bond measures passed, a 63 percent pass rate. They included 22 of 34 local school bond issues, which require 55 percent voter approval.

Winning an election with fewer than two of every 10 votes cast?

Indeed.

Tuesday night's vote count in the 8th congressional district, anchored by San Bernardino County, ended with none of 13 candidates garnering more than 15.5 percent of the vote.

State law does not require a winner to secure many votes, however, only to finish ahead of the competition.

Four candidates woke up Wednesday within a single percentage point of each other: Republican Assemblyman Paul Cook led with 15.5 percent, followed by Republican Gregg Imus at 15 percent. Democrat Jackie Conaway and Republican Phil Liberatore each had 14.7 percent.

The top two finishers, regardless of party, will square off in the November general election. Though 100 percent of the district's precincts had fully or partially reported results by Wednesday morning, counties typically have a pile of mailed-in, dropped-off or contested ballots left to count.

The 8th District race featured 10 Republicans, two Democrats and former Assemblyman Anthony Adams, a former Republican now registered as a "no party preference" voter.

Two members of the same party will square off in nearly two dozen legislative or congressional elections this November.

The oddity was created by California's new top-two primary system, in which voters could cast ballots for candidates of any party and the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election.

Seven California congressional, 14 Assembly and two state Senate races are sure to feature candidates from the same party. In a handful of other races, vote counts were too tight this morning to declare which two candidates will advance to the November ballot.

Dan Walters says that as fewer and fewer eligible Californians take part in elections, the trend "bodes ill" for the state.

Have a question you'd like Dan to answer? Post it on our Facebook page.

See other Dan Walters Daily clips here.

VIDEO: Dan Walters, in his latest video report, says that Tuesday's low turnout isn't a good thing for California.

Voters who went to sleep biting their nails over the Proposition 29 tobacco tax initiative can keep biting this morning.

The proposed $1-per-pack cigarette tax was losing by a razor-thin margin, 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent after 100 percent of the state's precincts had fully or partially reported their results.

The margin represented about 63,000 votes out of more than 3.8 million cast. What was not immediately clear in today's predawn hours was how many mail-in, dropped-off or contested ballots remained to be tallied.

By contrast, Proposition 28 was a runaway winner, capturing support from more than 61 percent of California's voters to reduce the total number of years that a legislator can serve from 14 to 12 -- but allow all to be served in one house.

In one of California's wildest, most expensive legislative slugfests, in the 50th Assembly District in Los Angeles County, all four candidates were separated by less than 2 percentage points with all precincts reporting. Democrats Betsy Butler had 25.9 percent of the vote, Richard Bloom, 25.6 percent, and Torie Osborn, 24.3 percent. Republican Bradly S,. Torgan had 24.2 percent.

The primary election marked California's first under a top-two primary system, allowing voters to cast ballots in legislative or congressional races for candidates of any party, with the two highest vote-getters advancing to a November runoff.

Tuesday night was a time for watching big money as labor unions, business interests and wealthy individuals sought to influence races statewide.

How successful were they?

Republican donor Charles T. Munger Jr., for instance, had put his money behind Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor's more moderate GOP challenger, Leslie Daigle, in the Irvine-based 74th Assembly District. Even so, Mansoor garnered 43 percent of the vote, easily advancing to the November runoff against Democrat Robert Rush.

Munger seemed to get more for his money in the Sacramento area 6th Assembly District when he backed Assemblywoman Beth Gaines, R-Rocklin, against Proposition 8 lawyer Andy Pugno. Gaines was the top vote-getter by a comfortable margin, capturing 37 percent of ballots cast. Democrat Regy Bronner narrowly led Republican Andy Pugno, 31.9 percent to 31.2 percent, for the right to square off against Gaines in this year's general election.

The California Chamber of Commerce backed several moderate Democrats in open seats, reporting independent expenditures for Stockton City Councilwoman Susan Eggman in the Stockton-based 13th Assembly District. Eggman easily beat two other Democrats -- receiving 40 percent of votes cast -- and will face Republican Jeffrey Jafri in the fall.

The Chamber also put its money behind Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly in the Santa Ana-based 69th Assembly District. He crushed three Democratic opponents, with 41 percent of the vote, for the right to run against Republican Jose "Joe" Moreno in November.

Labor unions, meanwhile, had backed one of Republican Assemblyman Tim Donnelly's GOP challengers, Big Bear Lake Mayor Bill Jahn, in the safe GOP 33rd Assembly District. Donnelly beat back the challenge easily, tallying nearly 52 percent of votes cast. Democrat John Coffey won the second spot for the right to compete in November.

How did "no-party-preference" candidates fare? Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams, who ditched his Republican Party allegiance before running in the 8th Congressional District, hardly registered a blip in Tuesday's balloting, receiving less than 4 percent of the vote to finish ninth in a 13-person field.

Find these and other up-to-date election returns at sacbee.com/electionresults.

Jim Sanders contributed to this post.

Only five independent candidates in California legislative or congressional races survived Tuesday's vote and qualified for the November ballot, with none finishing first in their race.

Thirty-six candidates listed "no party preference" on the ballot for the primary, but most of them were crushed by an opponent from one of the state's two major parties, Democrats or Republicans.

Bill Bloomfield was one of the exceptions, winning the right to compete against Democrat Henry Waxman in the 33r District this fall. Bloomfield's 25 percent of the vote fell far short of that garnered by Waxman, 45 percent.

Other independent congressional candidates who made Tuesday's cut were Marilyn Singleton, who will square off against Democrat Barbara Lee in the 13th District; Terry Phillips, who will run against Republican Kevin McCarthy in the 23rd District; and David R. Hernandez, who finished second Tuesday to Democrat Tony Cardenas.

Independent candidate Chad Walsh, as the challenger to Democratic incumbent Paul Fong in the 28th Assembly District, won the right Tuesday to advance to the general election in five months.

Only one state Senate candidate ran without a party affilation, Bo Ambrozewicz, in the 1st District. He finished last in a four-person field.

Some observers believed politicians who shed their partisan labels could fare well under the new top two primary system, which allows voter to select between candidates of all political leanings in the primary. Tuesday's results provided nothing to confirm that contention.

One of the most well-known independent candidates, perhaps, was former Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams in the 8th congressional district. He captured less than 4 percent of the vote.

Independent candidate Linda Parks, a Ventura County Supervisor, captured nearly 19 percent of the vote in the 26th congressional district but finished third behind Republican state Sen. Tony Strickland and Democratic Assemblywoman Julia Brownley.

Parks was attacked in the primary by the House Majority PAC which, threatened by the prospect that a Democrat would be left off the November ballot in the swing district, spent more than $700,000 to oppose Parks and boost Brownley.

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'No party preference' is new political flavor in California

A $1 per pack tobacco tax initiative is trailing by a slim margin today with more votes still to be counted.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, 50.8 percent opposed Proposition 29 and 49.2 percent supported it. The gap is hovering around 63,000 votes out of 3.8 million cast.

Too close to call Wednesday morning, the fate of Proposition 29 will be determined in coming days by the counting of perhaps hundreds of thousands mailed-in, dropped-off or provisional ballots received on election day.

The initiative had an early lead Tuesday evening based largely on mail ballots returned before Election Day. But fueled by nearly $47 million in contributions, mostly from the tobacco industry, opponents blanketed the state with ads that steadily dropped support over the last few weeks.

Both sides expected a late night of counting and the possibility that the outcome would not be known well beyond midnight, if not beyond Wednesday.

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