Capitol Alert

The latest on California politics and government

Latinos will become California's largest ethnic group very soon, a new Census Bureau report indicates.

The bureau issued its first post-2010 census estimates of population growth, birth rates, age cohorts, and racial and ethnic characteristics.

It pegs California's Latino population (it uses the term "Hispanic") at 14.4 million, 38.2 percent of the state's 37.7 million residents, while the non-Hispanic white population is just under 15 million or 39.7 percent, dropping below the 40 percent mark for the first time.

More than a quarter of Californians were born in another country, and those 10-plus million immigrant residents of the state also represent more than a quarter of the nation's foreign-born population, a new Census Bureau report reveals.

California's 25.4 percent of the nation's 40 million foreign-born residents is, by far, the largest concentration of any state, both numerically and proportionately. New York is a distant second with 10.8 percent, followed by Texas.

Nationally, 44 percent of the foreign born have become citizens. The report does not break citizenship down by state, but California's level of citizenship may be lower since Mexico is the state's major source of immigration and nationally, just 22.9 percent of Mexican-born immigrants are citizens.

Latinos, both immigrants and native-born, are now nearly 40 percent of California's population and are expected to become the state's largest ethnic group within a few years as the white population continues to decline. One factor, as the Census Bureau report indicates, is that immigrants have much higher birth rates than native-born Americans, in part because they tend to be younger and in part because they come from cultures that traditionally have high birth rates.

Hawaii, not surprisingly, is home to more Pacific Islanders than any other state, but California isn't too far behind, a new Census Bureau statistical study has determined.

In fact, the Census Bureau says, more than half of the nation's 1.2 million native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders live in either Hawaii or California. And it's a fast-growing population, up 40.1 percent from 2000 to 2010.

Hawaii was home to 355,816 Pacific Islanders, the 2010 census found, while 286,145 lived in California, a 29.2 percent increase from 2000. The third largest concentration was in Washington state (70,322) while the smallest was in Vermont (465), although that was a 51 percent increase.

California saw modest population growth last year, and the biggest boomtowns by percentage were two prison cities, according to a new release from the state Department of Finance.

The state added 250,617 residents for a total of 37,678,563, a jump of 0.67 percent.

According to Finance statistics, some of the most active regions had to do with prisoner counts. The fastest growing city was Calipatria in Imperial County, which grew 4.2 percent after adding 286 inmates at Calipatria State Prison along with some regular household growth. The second fastest growing city? California City in Kern County at 3.7 percent after its federal prison added 392 inmates.

But not all was bustling for state prison towns. Thanks to Gov. Jerry Brown's plan to shift lower-level inmates to county jails, some of the biggest population declines were in places like Delano (-2.1 percent), Coalinga (-6.6 percent) and Chowchilla (-5.1 percent).

Locally, Winters in Yolo County (pop. 6,839) ranked third in growth rate at 3.5 percent.

Sacramento is the state's sixth largest city with 470,956 residents, a 0.3 percent increase above last year. Within the top 10, No. 3 San Jose (pop. 971,372) and No. 5 Fresno (505,009) grew fastest at 1.5 percent each.

The state's growth rate has slowed since the early part of last decade, when annual population increases topped 1 percent. Department of Finance assistant chief demographer John Malson said the state is seeing a decline in natural births, as well as a net outmigration to other states.

Malson said international migration to California is still positive, but owing largely to immigrants from Asia. Malson pointed to recent data showing that migration from Mexico to California may have already reversed due to economic problems here.

Finance bases its May report largely on housing activity, while taking into account previously reported data related to births and migration, Malson said.

Post updated at 11:35 a.m. with prison-related population declines.

California's state and local government pension funds saw a 12.4 percent increase in their assets during 2010, according to a new Census Bureau report, markedly higher than the national pension fund increase.

The increase, from $458.8 billion in 2009 to $516.1 billion in 2010, marked a return to positive growth after pension funds in California and elsewhere were battered by investment losses during the national recession.

Nationally, state and local pension funds gained 10.6 percent in value during the year, rising to $2.7 trillion. California, with about 12 percent of the nation's population, holds nearly 20 percent of public pension assets. The state's pension funds, including the California Public Employees Retirement System, hold $373.7 billion in assets while local funds account for the remaining $142.3 billion.

The Census Bureau report also reveals that during the 2010 fiscal year, California's pension funds earned $63.1 billion on their investments and received another $23 billion in contributions from employees and government agencies while paying out $35.2 billion, including $33.1 billion in benefits.

Virtually all state and local pension funds have unfunded liabilities for future pension commitments, but the size of these shortfalls are in dispute since estimates depend on assumptions of future earnings.

Pension funds generally assume future earnings ("discount rate") in the 7-plus percent range but critics say that's unrealistically high. Lowering the assumption would raise the unfunded liability and increase pressure for more contributions from governments and their employees.

In 2000, the federal government spent $176 billion in California, but by 2010, those expenditures totaled $333.8 billion.

That's just one of thousands of info-bits available in the newest Census Bureau data dump, which makes the numbers available not only for each state, but every county within each state, covering topics that range from agricultural activity to crime and personal incomes.

The new statistical release is drawn largely from the surveys that the Census Bureau conducts between the decennial censues, plus other government data banks. Federal spending is new to the release.

California voters are inclined to support Gov. Jerry Brown's sales and income tax increase, but by a less than overwhelming margin, a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California has found.

The PPIC poll of likely voters found 54 percent in favor of Brown's tax measure, for which signatures are now being gathered, and 39 percent opposed. The poll also indicated that a rival measure sponsored by civil rights attorney Molly Munger and the state PTA to raise income taxes on most taxpayers for schools faces an uphill struggle.

Brown has attempted to persuade Munger to drop her initiative, but she's poured millions of dollars into signature-gathering and is likely to turn in signatures soon.

Brown has portrayed his measure as one that would save schools from massive cuts, building on an assumption -- confirmed by the PPIC poll -- that K-12 education is the most popular area of the state budget. But Munger contends that Brown's measure would actually give schools little or no new money.

Overall, the poll found, voters are more than willing to tax high-income Californians, as Brown's measure would do. The poll didn't ask about Munger's plan specifically, but showed nearly three-fifths of voters opposed to raising income taxes on most taxpayers for schools, which her measure would do. They also oppose the sales tax component of Brown's proposal, a quarter-cent increase. That opposition drags down overall support for the governor's approach.

The PPIC poll also found that Brown's approval rating among all adults is 43 percent and among likely voters 47 percent, but support for his handling of public education - -the broad subject of PPIC's polling -- drew approval at just half of those levels. In fact just 23 percent of likely voters like his education policies.

However, Brown is doing much better than the Legislature, which gained the approval of just 15 percent of likely voters in the PPIC poll.

Nelson Ozzie 016.JPGCalifornia has a global reputation for an anything-goes lifestyle - fueled, perhaps, by the lavishly publicized antics of Hollywood's glitterati.

A new Census Bureau report indicates, however, that Ozzie and Harriet may be more accurate exemplars of Californians' lifestyles than the Kardashians.

The report analyzes the composition of American households from 2010 census data, finding - not surprisingly - a trend toward more nontraditional living arrangements.

Those would include more singles, more single-parent households and more interracial and interethnic couples - the latter growing by 28 percent between 2000 and 2010.

The data show, however, that 49.4 percent of California households are old-fashioned husband-and-wife types, and that's one percentage point higher than the national average of 48.4 percent. And those California couples are more likely than those in other states to have children at home.

California's population will grow much more slowly than current official projections as immigration and birth rates decline and the state's residents will grow markedly older, according to a massive new study by University of Southern California demographers released today.

The state Department of Finance currently projects that California will add roughly 5 million persons each decade to its population through 2050, but those numbers are five years old and the department is now upgrading its calculations in response to the 2010 census.

Meanwhile, researchers at USC's Sol Price School of Public Policy project that the state will add only about 3.5 million per decade as growth shrinks to under 1 percent per year. If that's true, it would mean about 5 million fewer Californians in 2050 than previously thought.

The USC report, available here, says it will mean "a new era of aging" as baby boomers and then their children retire. The state's 65-plus population is expected to rise from 11.4 percent in 2010 to 18.6 percent by 2030.

The California Taxpayers Association handed ammunition Monday to opponents of this year's proposed tax increases - a report that outlines $7.3 billion in operational savings and non-tax "revenue enhancements" in state and local governments.

That's roughly 5 percent of annual state and local tax collections and approaches the revenue estimates for Gov. Jerry Brown's sales and income tax boost and a rival income tax increase sponsored by wealthy attorney Molly Munger. Brown's measure would address the state's budget deficit while Munger's would boost spending on schools.

"This report makes tangible, pragmatic recommendations that will yield long-term savings to address our current fiscal constraints and get state and local governments back on solid financial footing," CalTax president Teresa Casazza said in a statement that accompanied the report's release.

CalTax is a Sacramento-based organization, supported mostly by business groups, that tracks state and local government tax and budget matters and generally opposes tax increases. Its report lists $4.01 billion in permanent savings items, another $104 million in one-time savings and $3.19 billion in revenue increases.

None of the individual proposals involves big money, as the Capitol defines it; they are a grab bag of operational changes, such as reducing lease costs and privatization of some public services, many of which have kicked around the Capitol for years, mostly as Republican suggestions.

The "revenue enhancements" are fewer and larger, such as cleaning up delinquent tax accounts that, CalTax says, could produce $2.3 billion in one-time revenue,

If you want even more information about California from the 2010 census than was released last year, the Census Bureau is providing it.

Beginning today, the bureau is releasing information about as many as 331 racial and ethnic groups down to the census tract level for California and four other states.

The new data dump will cover such topics as age, family relationships and home ownership not only by racial or ethnic group but by counties, communities, ZIP codes and congressional districts, as well as census tracts.

The Census Bureau goofed when it declared that California had the nation's third fastest rate of state revenue growth during the 2010-11 fiscal year, it said Tuesday.

The Census Bureau issued a revised report on state tax collections with a note that the change was "due to a calculation error that caused California's sales tax to be overstated by $6.4 billion. New Mexico replaced California as one of the four states with the largest percentage tax increase."

The revised report places California's $116.7 billion was sixth highest in the nation.The corrected April 12 Capitol Alert item on the earlier Census Bureau report can be found here.

Although its economy was stagnant and its state budget was imbalanced, California saw one of the nation's sharpest increases in state tax revenues during the 2010-11 fiscal year, according to a new Census Bureau report.

California's 11.3 percent increase to $116.7 billion over the previous fiscal year was the sixth highest jump among the states. North Dakota (44.5 percent) and Alaska (22.4 percent) -- topped the list, likely because of increases in oil prices,. Oil severance taxes accounted for nearly half of North Dakota's state revenues and more than three-quarters of Alaska's.

California's increase, meanwhile, appears to have come mostly from some temporary sales and income taxes increases that were enacted in 2009 but since have expired. Gov. Jerry Brown is now proposing to restore those revenues with a plan on the November ballot to raise the sales tax by a quarter cent and increase income taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year.

The Census Bureau report covers all tax collections, regardless of source or destination, including vehicle and fuel taxes. Nearly half of the state's revenues -- $60.1 billion -- came from personal and corporate income taxes while sales taxes generated another $45.1 billion.

Editor's Note: This post has been updated to reflect corrected numbers for California provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. Updated 2:54 p.m., April 17, 2012.

Coastal Crusader Retirement.jpgLongtime California Coastal Commission Executive Director Peter Douglas has died. Douglas, 69, had battled lung and throat cancer in recent years.

Commission spokeswoman Sarah Christie said Douglas died Sunday evening at his sister's house in La Quinta outside of Palm Springs.

"He loved the desert as much as he loved the coast," she said.

Friends and colleagues remembered Douglas as a champion for preserving California's coastline.

"His vision and leadership over nearly half a century has shaped a coast that is accessible to all and whose beauty has been protected," California Natural Resources Secretary John Laird said in a statement. "Peter is an inspiration to me for the thoughtful work he has done protecting our coast, and the unrelenting commitment he showed to his work even in the final year of his life."

Assemblyman Jared Huffman D-San Rafael, praised Douglas as a "great friend and a hero to all of us who care about the environment "

"He was a unique combination of warrior and philosopher and he was green to the core," Huffman, who chairs the Assembly Committee on Water, Parks and Wildlife, said in a voicemail message.

Douglas, who was appointed to the commission director post in 1985, stepped down late last year. He had previously been on sick leave related to his lung cancer.

"It was a very difficult decision and it was disease driven," he told the Associated Press at the time of his retirement announcement. "I'm at peace with it - it's been an incredible 41 years. It's been a meaningful, purposeful legacy."

Douglas previously worked as the agency's Chief Deputy and as a legislative aide and committee consultant, where he helped draft and win passage of the ballot measure that created the commission.

Douglas is survived by his sister, Christina Douglas, a brother, Dieter Claren, two sons, Vanja and Sascha Douglas, his former wife Rotraut and two grandchildren, Charlie and Madelina. He asked that in lieu of flowers donations are made to a fund to support coastal work fellowships and a coastal conservation project created in his name.

Donations to the fellowship fund can be made through the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary Foundation at this link. The conservation project will be run by The Wildlands Conservancy.

RELATED POSTS:

Coastal Commission Director Peter Douglas to retire

PHOTO CREDIT: PHOTO CREDIT: A Wednesday March 30,2005 file photo showing Peter Douglas, executive director of the California Coastal Commission, at in his office in San Francisco. Jeff Chu, Associated Press.

Editor's note: This post was updated at 10:37 a.m. with statements from Laird and Huffman.

California Common Sense is out with a new report on spending in the 2010 elections, calculating that more than $358 million was spent on California campaigns, which set a new high.

Its findings include these:

"Among Assembly races, Democratic candidates outnumbered Republican candidates 94 to 58 and fundraising strongly favored Democratic candidates. Democrats received 93% of union donations, 80% of PIA donations, 75% of trade association donations, and 70% of corporate donations.



Among Senate races, Democratic candidates outnumbered Republican candidates 19 to 14 and out-raised Republicans by more than a 3:1 ratio. Democrats received 92% of all union donations, 88% of trade association donations, 80% of PIA donations, and 70% of corporate donations."

Researcher Sydney Evans, author of the report, said he was struck in retrospect by just how much Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman spent.

"She basically singlehandedly (accounted for) a third of the money in the entire election season," he said. To identify overall trends, therefore, he also made calculations that eliminated personal spending by candidates from the data.

"You see some of the real California politics at work when you take away some of the outliers," he said.

The group also produced plenty of customizable charts of the spending.

As California's economy boomed and then plummeted during the latter years of the previous decade, more people (372,331) left Los Angeles County for homes elsewhere than any other county in the nation.

However, as a new U.S. Census Bureau statistical study found, more people (212,882) also moved into Los Angeles County during the 2005-2009 period than to any other county.

The study covered only movements within the nation, not migration from and to other countries.

Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties in Southern California and Alameda County in Northern California ranked among the national leaders in both outflow and inflow of residents.

The Southern California counties also ranked highly in what the Census Bureau calls "origin flow" -- high numbers of destinations for those moving out. Los Angeles, for instance, was second only to Maricopa County, AZ, in the number (1,091) of other counties to which the ex-Angelenos moved, indicating they scattered widely around the nation.

San Diego was 4th on that list, San Bernardino 15th, Orange County 16th and Riverside 19th.

Conversely, while Maricopa County was also No. 1 in the variation of places from which its new residents came, called "destination flow," San Diego was 3rd highest, with its new residents coming from 795 other places in the country. Los Angeles was 4th at 741 previous homes.

Edited at 11:23 a.m. to reflect that study covered only movements within U.S.

California may lead the nation in agricultural production, but being a society of great contrasts, it's also the nation's most urbanized state, according to a new Census Bureau report.

Based on 2010 census data, the bureau calculated that 94.95 percent of the state's 37.3 million residents live in urban areas, albeit some that are quite small, with New Jersey second at 94.7 percent.

How small? How about Delano?

The nation's four most densely populated urban areas are in California, led by No. 1 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, at nearly 7,000 persons per square mile. It's followed by San Francisco-Oakland at 6,266, San Jose at 5,820 and tiny Delano, in the San Joaquin Valley, at 5,483. Delano's population is denser even than the New York-Newark urban area at 5,319 per square mile.

The latter, however, remains the nation's largest urban area at 18.3 million, followed by Los Angeles, et al, at 12.2 million and Chicago at 8.6 million.

Overall, the Census Bureau says, the nation's urban population - defined by population density - increased by 12.1 percent from 2000 to 2010 while the overall growth was 9.7 percent.

The latest monthly employment report, released Friday, was not particularly good news for California, whose jobless rate was unchanged in February at 10.9 percent with more than two million workers unemployed.

That's a bit better that it was during the depths of the recession, but not much, the data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistic indicate.

But what about those green jobs that Gov. Jerry Brown and other political figures frequently tout as California's economic salvation? Another report from the BLS indicates that they're a tiny part of the state's economy and would have to grow exponentially for a long time to become a major factor in reducing the state's high jobless rate.

The BLS counted 338,445 jobs related to green products and services in California in 2010, just 2.3 percent of the state's 14.4 million employees, slightly below the national proportion of 2.4 percent. And when it comes to non-governmental employment, it's even lower at 1.9 percent, also below the national average.

Vermont tops the states in green jobs at 4.4 percent while Florida is lowest at 1.3 percent. And for those fond of comparing California to Texas, the Lone Star State's proportion of green jobs is 2.3 percent, exactly the same as California's, but in private employment, Texas is slightly higher at 2 percent.

As the nation's economy recovered, albeit slowly, from recession last year, most states saw a surge of revenues - but not California, a new Census Bureau data dump indicates.

Nationally, state government revenues rose 3.5 percent to $183.8 billion during the fourth quarter of 2011 over the same period of 2010, the Census Bureau report said, but in California, they dropped 8.2 percent to $25.6 billion.

But there may be less import than those numbers would indicate. Temporary income and sales tax increases enacted by the Legislature in 2009 were still in effect in 2010, but had expired by late last year, which largely explains the sharp declines in revenues from those two sources.

Fourth-quarter California income tax revenues last year were $11.3 billion, the Census Bureau report said, down from $12.2 billion in 2010, while sales taxes dropped from $8.1 billion to $7.5 billion.

Gov. Jerry Brown tried to get the temporary taxes extended, but Republican legislators refused to support his plan. He's now pushing a November ballot measure that would raise sales taxes by a quarter-cent and sharply boost income taxes on high-income Californians. He says it would raise about $9 billion a year but the Legislature's budget analyst says that number is likely too high.

California has - by far - the nation's largest Asian-American population with nearly a third of the 17.3 million counted nationally in the 2010 census, according to a new Census Bureau report.

California's Asian-American population of 5.6 million is nearly 1.5 million higher than it was in the 2000 census and more than three times as large as New York's 1.6 million, the second largest population.

California's 2010 percentage of Asian-American residents, 14.9 percent of its population, is surpassed only by Hawaii's 57.4 percent. But growth in the state's Asian-American population, 33.7 percent between 2000 and 2010, was surpassed by that of many other states (Nevada's increase was 116 percent) and well below the national growth rate of 45.6 percent.

New York City has the numerical largest population of Asian-Americans of major urban areas at 1.1 million, but California cities - Los Angeles, San Jose, San Francisco and San Diego - hold the next four places while Fremont is 9th and Sacramento is 12th.

Gov. Jerry Brown's decision to shut down a state-run "transparency" website has caused California to slip in an annual ranking based on access to government spending data.

California, one of eight states to receive the ranking's second-lowest grade of "D minus," saw its score drop 13 points from last year, according to the California Public Interest Research Group's third annual report on government spending transparency.

The report cites that the shutdown of the "Reporting Transparency in Government" website is a major force behind the change, saying the move left "state spending information scattered across multiple agencies' websites." Brown's administration replaced the site, which was launched by former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, with links to other state websites where the same information could be found last year, along with a note saying the Democratic governor "is committed to keeping state government open and transparent while eliminating inefficiencies and unnecessary costs."

"As home to the tech industry, it's disappointing and embarrassing that California is not only lagging behind, but actively moving in the wrong direction when it comes to keeping pace with current online transparency standards," CALPIRG Legislative Director Pedro Morillas said in a statement.

Brown spokesman Evan Westrup defended the move, saying the website "was poorly maintained, underutilized and had not been regularly updated by the previous administration."

"All information previously posted on the site continues to be available to the public," he wrote in an email. "We remain committed to transparency, while also working to eliminate redundancies, make government more efficient and save taxpayer dollars."

Not all groups give the state's online efforts such low marks. As The State Worker reported this week, the nonprofit Sunshine Review recently honored the state's ca.gov website with an award and an "A-" grade.

Click here to read the full report.

RELATED POSTS:
Jerry Brown shuts down government transparency website

Editor's note: This post was updated with a statement from Brown spokesman Evan Westrup.

While California's Latino population is growing, and is likely to become the state's largest ethnic group within a few years, only a tiny percentage of Latinos are seeking and receiving college educations, according to a new data compilation by the Campaign for College Opportunity.

The Los Angeles-based organization says in a new report that while 57 percent of Latino students graduated from high school in 2009 - markedly lower graduation rates than those for white or Asian American students - just 16 percent graduated with the course requirements for the state's four-year colleges, and just 8 percent enrolled in one of those colleges.

The bottom line, the organization says, is that just 7 percent of California's Latinos 25 years or older have baccalaureate degrees, while 30 percent of all Californians have at least bachelor's degrees.

Latino attendance at community colleges is higher. Of Latinos who pursue college educations, two-thirds go to community colleges, but just 20 percent earn certificates or associate degrees or transfer to four-year colleges.

Michele Siqueiros, the campaign's executive director, calls the data "cause for significant alarm" because with the overall Latino population continuing to expand, low Latino college attendance could affect the larger society, especially in jobs that require post-high school education.

"California cannot succeed if its Latino students do not succeed," she said in a statement accompanying release of the report. "At present, our education system, including the community colleges, do not serve Latino students well."

Editor's note: Comments on this story were closed due to hate speech.

California employers' costs of providing workers' compensation insurance rose slightly in 2011, but are scarcely half of what they were before then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature enacted a major overhaul of the system in 2004.

The data are contained in the annual report of the Workers' Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau, which was released Monday.

The average cost of workers' comp insurance rose from $2.32 per $100 of payroll in 2010 to $2.37 in 2011 as payouts to injured workers and their medical care providers also rose from $7.8 billion to $8.1 billion.

In 2003, coverage averaged $6.29 per $100 of payroll but after the reforms, which tightened eligibility for benefits, it dropped to as low as $2.16 in 2008 before beginning a slow rise. Payouts also dropped from $12.3 billion in 2002 to as low as $6.7 billion in 2005 before also beginning a slow rise.

The data are ammunition for the Capitol's never-ending war over workers' compensation costs and benefits. Since the 2004 overhaul, labor unions and attorneys who specialize in employee injury cases have pressed for rolling back some of its provisions - saying they have denied adequate benefits to disabled workers - but Schwarzenegger refused. His successor, Jerry Brown, has not yet addressed the issue.

The state is losing an estimated $10 billion a year in revenue due to the underground economy, non-filing of tax returns, overstatement of deductions and other forms of tax evasion, a new study by the Franchise Tax Board staff estimates.

That's nearly twice as much as what Gov. Jerry Brown hopes to realize from his tax increase ballot measure.

Scott Reid, the state tax agency's research director, told the board this month that the estimate, which is up from $6.5 billion seven years ago, is extrapolated from an extensive study by the federal Internal Revenue Service.

Reid gave the board one example of how the state's "tax gap" emerges: A taxpayer who donates to charity a slightly used suit of clothes that originally cost $300 and values it at $75 for a tax deduction, only to see the suit actually listed for sale at $10.

California's economy may be hurting, but Forbes magazine, in its latest listing of the globe's 1,226 billionaires, says that 100 are Californians.

Standing at the top of the California billionaires is Oracle Corp.'s Larry Ellison at $36 billion, the world's sixth richest person and third richest American behind Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. Mexican media mogul Carlos Slim and his family top the global rankings at $69 billion.

The California list includes Meg Whitman, the Republican candidate for governor in 2010, who ranks 913th globally with a fortune estimated at $1.4 billion, about 10 times what she spent on her unsuccessful gubernatorial run. The poorest of the 100 California billionaires, No. 1153, is Charles Munger, a Los Angeles lawyer who is Buffett's business partner and whose wealth was tabbed at $1 billion.

Munger has shared his wealth with his children.

Charles Jr. is a Republican scientist at Stanford University who bankrolled successful ballot measure campaigns to shift legislative and congressional redistricting from the Legislature to an independent commission.

Daughter Molly is a Democrat who is spending heavily this year on a ballot measure that would raise income taxes and devote proceeds to education.

The highest levels of income inequality in California are found in its most urbanized regions - Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area - and in a few rural areas, according to a new Census Bureau report.

The Census Bureau used data from the American Community Survey to calculate income disparities for every one of the nation's counties, using a "Gini index" of zero (perfect equality, in which all households have precisely the same incomes) to one (perfect inequality, in which just one household has any income).

The index does not measure income itself, but rather its distribution within the population. Thus a very high income county or a very poor one could both have low levels of inequality if most of their populations were in similar economic circumstances, or equally high levels if they have broad spectra of incomes.

Overall, the nation's inequality index stands at .467, and since 1967, it has risen by 18 percent, although "more recently, the growth in income inequality has tapered off," the Census Bureau says.

The nation's highest incidences of income inequality are found in the South while the lowest are in the Midwest. East Carroll Parish in Louisiana has the nation's highest level of income disparity at .645 while Loving County, Texas, has the lowest inequality at .207.

The indices of California's 58 counties are all over the map, with very low levels of inequality in a few mountain counties, but relatively high ones in Los Angeles (.489), the San Francisco Bay Area, Santa Barbara County, Humboldt County and Imperial County, which is by far the state's poorest in terms of income. The rest of the state falls into the middle quintiles of inequality.


The median income of Californians who filed state income tax returns for 2010 declined slightly, the Franchise Tax Board reported Tuesday, but it went up for those filing joint returns.

The median income on 2010 returns was $33,933, down 0.4 percent from 2009, but on joint returns it was $65,772, up 1.1 percent.

Median income is the point at which half of the reported income is above and half is below and it differs from average income,

Californians filed 15.5 million state tax returns for 2010 with $1.1 trillion in adjusted gross income, up 0.2 percent from 2009.

As usual, San Francisco Bay Area counties had the highest incomes, with Marin County on top with a a $114,060 median income for joint filers, an increase of 5.2 percent from 2009, followed by San Mateo, Santa Clara and Contra Costa counties.

Just over a quarter of the tax returns came from Los Angeles County, but its median incomes of $29,779 for all returns and $57,010 for joint filers were well below the state as a whole - ranking 38th and 27th respectively.

Sierra County had the largest percentage gain in median income, 4.5 percent, but for joint returns, Mono County led at 6.4 percent.

Democrats dominate statewide, legislative and congressional offices in California, making it a "decidedly blue" state, but its overall political matrix is much more complex, a new statistical study concludes.

"California's Political Geography" is being published by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), based on both official voting and registration data and PPIC's frequent opinion surveys and written by PPIC staffers Eric McGhee and Daniel Krimm.

"Although California votes solidly Democratic, Californians (including non-voters) hold important elements of conservative belief in most parts of the state," they write. "On an ideological scale ranging from strong conservative to strong liberal, public opinion data show the average Californian falling in the middle and leaning slightly conservative.

"Statewide, Californians are divided between those who say they are willing to pay higher taxes for more government services (48 percent) and those who would prefer paying fewer taxes and receiving fewer services (43 percent). And both non-Hispanic white and black Californians are slightly more likely to say that immigrants are a burden on the state (48 percent) rather than a benefit (44 percent).

"In fact, growth in Democratic support over time has not been uniform across the state, but has had a strong geographic dimension. It is common to say that a north-south divide - with the north voting Democratic and the south voting Republican - has been replaced with an east-west, or coastal-inland divide (with the coast voting Democratic and inland voting Republican). But this shorthand tells only part of the story."

The conclusion about an east-west split has been apparent in previous journalistic and academic surveys of the state's politics. And the paper's observations about the Democratic dominance being driven by the party's strength in Los Angeles County and the San Francisco area have long been apparent - in fact was a chapter in a similarly titled book, "The New Political Geography of California," written by the author of this Capitol Alert posting.

The housing industry meltdown in California sharply reversed a trend of steadily increasing homeownership, a new statistical compilation by the Census Bureau reveals.

The result: The percentage of Californians who live in homes that they and their families own dipped to 55.3 percent in 2011, the second lowest rate of any state, just ahead of New York's 53.6 percent.

The current California level is just about where it was during the 1980s and 1990s before climbing to as high as 60.2 percent in 2006, just before the housing market implosion.

The home ownership data is just one of a number of statistical reports on housing trends in the Census Bureau report, including housing vacancies rates.

California's nonprofit, charitable foundations boomed both in number and assets between 1999 and 2009, according to a new study by the Center on Philanthropy and Public Policy at the University of Southern California.

The study, a followup to one done in 2001, concludes that during the 10-year period, the number of foundations in California grew by 71 percent, topping 7,100, contributions to them more than doubled to $6 billion, and foundation assets grew by more than one-third to $93.3 billion. After adjustment for inflation, however, contributions increased by 55 percent and assets by 2.6 percent.

The state's deteriorating economy late in the decade took its toll on foundation growth, however. "While the number of foundations grew throughout the period," the study says, "the robust growth in 2000 and 2001 gave way to a tapering off by the end of the period. On the other hand, foundation giving and assets exhibited peaks and valleys over the 10 years with the swings in assets more pronounced than the swings in giving."

Growth in the number of California foundations, contributions and assets all outpaced national trends during the 10-year period. There are 14 California foundations with assets over $1 billion, up from nine in 1999. They account for 52 percent of all assets and 53 percent of all foundation giving.

Speaking of which, giving by California foundations also has gone up and down during the decade, peaking in 2008 at $4.9 billion, just before a severe recession struck the state.

The thrust of foundation grant-making has also changed. Health care was the largest single category of giving in 1999 but by 2009 education had emerged as the foundations' top priority, garnering nearly a quarter of all grant money.

The J. Paul Getty Trust, endowed by the late Los Angeles oilman, is California's wealthiest foundation with $9.3 billion in assets, but when it comes to spending, Getty was fairly stingy at just $14.8 million in 2009.

The second biggest foundation at $6.9 billion, named for computer pioneer William Hewlett and his wife, Flora, was the biggest spender at $342.5 million. It was followed by the Genentech Access to Care Foundation at $292 million and a $5.9 billion foundation endowed by Hewlett's partner, David Packard, and his wife, Lucille, at $282.8 million.

California has the nation's highest state sales tax rate, but its overall rate, including local sales taxes, drops to 12th highest, according to a new report from the Tax Foundation, a Washington-based organization that collects nationwide tax data.

California's state government levies a 7.25 percent sales tax rate, and that would jump another half-percent if Gov. Jerry Brown's tax increase plan wins voter approval in November. The Tax Foundation says local governments add an average of .86 percent for an overall average of 8.11 percent. However, in a few jurisdictions the overall rate approaches 10 percent, according to data from the state Board of Equalization.

Tennessee, the Tax Foundation says, has the nation's highest average sales tax rate of 9.45 percent, followed by Arizona and Louisiana. Five states levy no sales taxes, but of those that do, Colorado is lowest at 4.54 percent.

Gov. Jerry Brown wants to hit California's highest-income taxpayers with billions of dollars in new taxes, and is jousting with other groups with their own tax-the-rich measures over which, if any, will win voter approval.

But the number of Californians with $500,000-plus annual incomes declined dramatically from 2007 to 2009 as the state's economy stagnated, leaving fewer to tax, the California Taxpayers Association points out in a compilation of data from the Franchise Tax Board.

The latest FTB statistical report covers the 2009 tax year, and Cal-Tax points out that it listed just 98,610 California tax returns with adjusted gross income of $500,000 or more, down nearly a third from the 146,221 in 2007. Data for 2010 are not yet available.

Those 98,610 tax returns were just over a half-percent of the 14.6 million returns filed for 2009, but they accounted for 18.8 percent of the taxable income and 32 percent of the income taxes paid that year.

Economists believe that most of the decline reflects lower incomes, rather than an exodus of high-income taxpayers from the state, but there are no hard data on that point.

Expanding the 2009 sample to the top 1 percent (144,071) drops the cutoff to just under $400,000 a year in adjusted gross income. The one-percenters accounted for 21 percent of the taxable income that year and 35.5 percent of the taxes levied.

At one time, the top 1 percent of California taxpayers accounted for half of the state's income tax revenues but their incomes, tied to stocks and other capital markets, declined the most of any income class and currently, state officials say, they are believed to provide about 37 percent of the state's income taxes. That decline accounts for much, if not most, of the state's revenue declines in recent years.

Those with adjusted gross incomes of $400,000 or more paid $25.7 billion in state income taxes for 2007, but two years later, that had dropped to $12.3 billion. Their taxable incomes had declined from about $278 billion to $156 billion.

Not only does California have more than 2 million unemployed workers, but nearly half of them have been jobless for 27 weeks or more, according to new data assembled by the state Department of Employment Development.

"Between May 2007 and February 2011, the number of people who were jobless 27 weeks or more in California rose an astounding 620 percent," says the EDD report.

Those who are called "long-term unemployed" grew from 15.9 percent of the jobless population in late 2007 to 46.8 percent last March, remaining over 46 percent in December.

"The rapid rise in long-term unemployment can be directly tied to the collapse of the housing bubble in California," the report continues. "This event had dramatic effects on the construction and finance industries and on the duration of unemployment among workers displaced from these industries."

It notes that housing construction permits reached a peak of 20,554 in September 2005, then plummeted to 2,418 in January 2009.

Long-term unemployment knows no gender or ethnic boundaries, although Latinos -- who were heavily engaged in construction -- were hit somewhat harder than non-Latino workers. Among all workers, those middle-aged and older have fared worse than those younger, perhaps reflecting their heavy involvement in construction trades.

Gov. Jerry Brown told a television interviewer this week that California has lost manufacturing employment "at about the same rate as the rest of America, so this is a national problem."

True or false?

It depends on one's definition of "about."

Data from Brown's own Department of Employment Development reveal that over the last 10 years, manufacturing employment in California has declined by one-third, from 1.8 million to 1.2 million.

Brown's right about the decline in factory jobs being a national phenomenon, but the rest of the nation has fared a bit better with a 28.8 percent drop over the last decade, from 14.9 million (excluding California) to 10.6 million, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

California's neighboring and competitive states have also seen declines, according to data compiled by the California Manufacturing and Technology Association, but not as steep as this state.

Texas' decline has been 23 percent. Nevada's is 18 percent, Arizona's 28 percent, and Oregon's 26 percent.

Brown made his comments Wednesday in response to a question from Current TV talk show host Jennifer Granholm, the former governor of Michigan.

When it comes to financial security - such factors as savings and low debt ratios - Californians resemble the residents of Southern and Rust Belt states, according to a new national survey by the Washington-based Corporation for Enterprise Development.

California's place on the organization's national chart of economic opportunity and security, 39th among the states and the District of Columbia, is largely determined, the detailed data show, by its very low rankings on credit card debt, loan delinquency and bankruptcy.

The study found that nearly a third of California households are "asset poor," meaning they have little or no financial cushions, even if they are employed. And excluding equity in homes or cars, more than 43 percent of Californians could not sustain themselves for three months if they lose their incomes.

California households rank 49th in average credit card debt at $14,677, nearly a third higher than the national average and 45th in bankruptcy rate. Its ranking is similar to those of other southern tier states while the highest levels of economic security are found in the northern tier of states bordering Canada.

Vermonters are No. 1 in economic security and Georgians are 51st.

Union membership among California's workers declined fractionally in the last year, according to an annual survey by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, but remains seventh highest among the states.

The BLS report says that 17.1 percent of California's private and public employees are union members, down from 17.5 percent the previous year. That translates into 2.4 million union members, down more than 50,000 from a year earlier, in a total employed workforce of 13.9 million.

The numbers and percentages of workers represented by unions, including non-members, are slightly higher at 2.5 million and 18.2 percent. California is tied for the seventh highest rate with Oregon. New York is highest at 24.1 percent and South Carolina the lowest at 3.4 percent. The national rate is 11.8 percent, down from 11.9 percent the previous year.

The survey report does not break down state membership by private and public sectors. Nationally, 37 percent of public workers are unionized, while just 6.9 percent of those in private employment belong to unions.

EDITOR'S NOTE, 1:27 p.m.: This post has been corrected to show that California's rate is tied with Oregon's for seventh place, not fifth.

California's 6 million-student public education system receives high marks for setting high academic standards but very low grades for meeting those standards and school finance in the latest national rankings by Education Week magazine.

Overall, the state receives a "C grade for its public schools with a mark of 76.1 on the 1-100 scale, slightly below the nation as a whole. For the fourth year in a row, Maryland's schools came out on top at 87.8 while South Dakota came in last with 68.1.

The magazine rates states' schools on six criteria - chances for successes, K-12 achievement, standards and assessments, teaching profession improvement, finance and preparing students for work or college. California received an "A" grade for standards and assessments, a "B" for preparing students, a "C" in chances for success, teaching profession improvement and finance, and a "D" in K-12 achievement.

School finance is the area that draws the most political attention, and in that, Education Week says California does well in equalizing support among schools, with a "B-plus," but is given an "F" for spending, reflecting the state's relatively low level of per-pupil support from state and local taxes.

The state's schools have lost billions of dollars in state aid due to chronic budget deficits and are likely to see more cuts this year, but Gov. Jerry Brown has also proposed an overhaul of how aid is allocated, eliminating many "categorical aid" programs and creating a simpler method that gives more aid to schools with poor and/or low-performing students.

The number of Californians reporting incomes of more than $1 million increased sharply last year, as did their share of the income stream, a new report from the Franchise Tax Board reveals.

The new data will fuel the political debate over whether high-income Californians should pay higher taxes.

There were 10,000 taxpayers in the million-dollar income club during the 2009 tax year -- just one-third of one percent of all returns -- but that number jumped 27 percent to more than 13,000 for 2010, based on tax returns filed in 2011.

The income millionaires reported adjusted gross incomes of $22.4 billion in 2009, an average of $2.2 million each. In 2010, the total jumped 30.2 percent to $29.1 billion, with the average remaining virtually unchanged.

California, long considered to have the world's eighth-largest economy, has slipped to ninth place, according to the Palo Alto-based Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy.

Blame it on Brazil.

With a fast-growing, $2.1 trillion economy, Brazil has slipped past California ($1.9 trillion) into eighth place, according to the center's calculations from the latest World Bank economic rankings.

California was once as high as seventh but was later surpassed by Italy, which remains No. 7, just ahead of Brazil and just behind No. 6 Great Britain.

The United States, of course, is first at $14.5 trillion, followed by China at $5.9 trillion, Japan at $5.5 trillion, Germany at $3.3 trillion and France at $2.6 trillion.

California is just ahead of India's $1.7 trillion. The Los Angeles area, with a $886 billion economy, would rank 16th in world, just behind Australia and just ahead of the Netherlands. The Sacramento area's economy, incidentally, would rank 59th, just behind Qatar and Kazakhstan.

By a wide margin, the economic think tank says, California's economy is the largest of any state, with Texas second at $1.2 trillion, based on data from the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. They're followed by New York, Florida and Illinois.

However, Texas is catching up fast, with an economy growing half again as fast as California's. The Palo-Alto-based center notes that between 2000 and 2010, Texas had the nation's fourth-fastest growing economy at an average of 2.4 percent per year. California trailed at 1.8 percent. Wyoming's economy was growing the fastest at a 4 percent average, followed by North Dakota and Nevada.

When it comes to economic output per capita (2010), California is also trailing many other states at $51,470, but it's slightly higher than Texas' $48,617. Alaska is tops at $70,030, while California is 10th.

Gov. Jerry Brown's introduction of a proposed 2012-13 budget for California not only touches off the annual wrangle over what to spend on what, but the annual debate over the budget's dimensions.

Officially, the governor's budget is $137.3 billion, consisting of a general fund budget of $92.6 billion, $39.8 billion in special funds (Caltrans, Department of Motor Vehicles, etc.) and just under $5 billion in bond funds.

But that official number ignores about $70 billion in federal funds that will be funneled through the budget, thereby bringing the total to more than $200 billion, or roughly 10 percent of the state's economy.

But wait, as the TV pitchmen say, there's more.

California's economy may be suffering and the state budget may be in disarray, but when it comes to healthy lifestyles, Californians -- or at least coastal Californians -- are leading the nation, according to The Atlantic magazine.

The magazine rates San Jose as the nation's healthiest metropolitan area, based its low rates of obesity and smoking, with nearby Santa Cruz No. 2 and seven other California coastal regions in the top 15.

The Atlantic devised a Metro Health Index, which "measures the share of people who smoke or are obese across 315 U.S. metro regions. The higher the score on the index, the lower the rates of smoking and obesity, and the better a metro's health outlook. Smoking is measured as the percentage of the population who are regular smokers. Obesity is measured as the percent of the population with a body mass index of 30 or more. It's notable that smoking and obesity themselves are closely related across the United States."

More than 1 million jobless California workers could have their unemployment insurance benefits cut off soon if Congress does not continue federally financed benefit extensions of up to 99 weeks, state officials said Wednesday.

At least 100,000 of those workers, those who have been unemployed the longest, could see a cutoff of benefits as early as the first week of January.

The state has more than 2 million unemployed workers, and 1.1 million of them are now collecting benefits -- either the 26 weeks of state-financed payments, or the up to 73 weeks of federally financed extended benefits in five tiers, in order, of 20, 14, 13, six and 20 weeks. Benefits range from $40 to $450 a week.

In all, California is paying out about $1.2 billion in state and federal unemployment insurance benefits a month.

Texas, whose economy has been stronger than California's in recent years, is also seeing a much stronger population growth, according to the first post-2010 census estimate from the Census Bureau.

Texas added 529,000 residents to its population between the census date of April 1, 2010, and July 1 of this year, the Census Bureau said, which also made it the nation's fastest growing state at 2.1 percent. California was second in numerical gain at 438,000 but its 1.2 percent growth rate was scarcely half of Texas' and only slightly above the national average of .98 percent.

The Census Bureau's new estimate for California, 37.7 million, is still nearly 50 percent higher than Texas' population of 25.7 million. The California estimated population also comports with the most recent data from the state Department of Finance. During the previous decade, the two estimates grew more than a million persons apart, but both agencies started the new decade with numbers from the 2010 census as their bases for estimates and projections.

California's unemployment rate has been edging downwards in recent months in an apparent sign of slow recovery from the state's worst recession since the Great Depression, dropping to 11.3 percent in November.

But it's a mixed bag of numbers.

The good news is that a quarter-million more Californians were working in November than a year earlier, and that was more than enough to offset a 34,000-person increase in the labor force, so the unemployment rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points from the previous November, although it's still one of the nation's highest.

The bad news is that about 2 million Californians considered to be in the labor force are still jobless, and that's about a million more than were unemployed before recession struck the state. Roughly half of the 2 million jobless workers are receiving unemployment insurance benefits and the state fund that pays them is nearly $10 billion in the red and subsisting largely on loans from the federal government.

That fund covers only the first 26 weeks of unemployment for about a half-million recipients. Benefit extensions for another half-million, up to 99 weeks in total, are financed by the feds, but the longest extensions will expire in less than two weeks unless Congress renews them. They are ensnared in a sharp partisan battle in Washington.

Bill Watkins, who heads the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at California Lutheran University, has consistently been the most pessimistic of economists who closely follow the California economy, and the center's latest report is no exception.

Watkins, who for many years headed a similar organization at the University of California, Santa Barbara, believes that the state is fated for a long and slow economic recovery that will lag behind the national recovery, with persistently high unemployment rates.

"It is amazing how California, which once led the world in economic vigor and change, is now so resistant to any change," says a summary of the center's quarterly forecast. "Its economic joints are becoming arthritic, and its arteries clogged, faster than those of its aging population."

The forecast points to the state's losing more people to other states than in-migration, weak home prices and "very weak" economies in the state's Central Valley as signals of the continued economic malaise.

Economists in other public and private venues, especially at UCLA's Anderson School and Beacon Economics, have been more optimistic about the state's recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression, and the state government's own economists generally are more optimistic as well.

More details from the Cal Lutheran forecast can be found here.

The 2010 census pegged California's population at 37.3 million, 12.1 percent of the nation's, and a new Census Bureau report says California's government accounted for 13 percent of all state government spending last year.

California's general fund budget accounted for roughly half of its $210.4 billion in "general expenditures" last year, with federal funds, bond funds and special funds accounting for the remainder. The total was almost a billion dollars lower than 2009 spending.

The Census Bureau report also revealed that education accounted for $70.3 billion or 33.4 percent of California's spending, which is about two percentage points below the national average, while social service spending, $63.8 billion, was 30.4 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the average.

As employers, labor unions, lawyers, insurers and medical care providers gird themselves for another round of battle in the decades-long political war over workers' compensation, a new set of data from the Workers' Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau is providing ammunition.

The multi-billion-dollar-a-year system provides payments and medical care for workers who incur job-related illnesses and injuries and approximately once a decade, those with stakes in the system clash over its rules governing eligibility for benefits, the level of the benefits, and payments to medical care providers.

The last such battle occurred in 2004, when a newly inaugurated Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, wielding an employer-sponsored ballot measure, bulldozed the Legislature into tightening up the system. The results was a dramatic reduction of costs and of insurance premiums paid by employers - but the new data indicated that both are starting to edge upwards and that insurers are beginning to lose money.

California's housing market may be in the dumps along with its economy, but it's still a very expensive place in which to live, a new nationwide comparison indicates.

Four California communities are among the nation's 10 most expensive locales, according to the quarterly survey of living costs by the Arlington, VA.-based Council for Community and Economic Research.

Two New York City boroughs, Manhattan and Brooklyn, top the survey rankings, which are based on 90,000 prices of 60 different items, followed by Honolulu and San Francisco. San Jose is the sixth most expensive community, the Truckee area is ninth and Orange County is 10th.

Harlingen, Texas, is the nation's least expensive community in which to live. All others on the 10 least expensive list, with the exception of Richmond, Indiana, are in the nation's southern tier of states.

Truckee, incidentally, has the nation's fourth highest grocery costs, the survey found.

California's worst recession since the Great Depression has hit all economic classes, but has had a particularly harsh effect on those in the lower income brackets and has exacerbated the state's socioeconomic polarization, a new study by the Public Policy Institute of California determined.

One result has been that the ranks of the economic middle class have thinned to less than half of the state's population, PPIC found.

"Unemployment and underemployment are the hallmarks of the Great Recession," Sarah Bohn, who co-authored a report with Eric Schiff, said in a statement accompanying its release. "This suggests that policies that create jobs and promote full-time employment - rather than those that target wage rates - are more likely to be effective in raising family income to pre-recession levels."

That conclusion provides fodder for California's ongoing political debate over what, if anything, the state's political policymakers could do to hasten recovery and make a dent in what remains the nation's second highest unemployment rate, just under 12 percent with more than 2 million workers on the jobless rolls.

California's major corporations have rung up hundreds of billions of dollars in profits in recent years, but have paid only a few percentage points of those profits in income taxes here and in other states, according to a new nationwide study by several liberal organizations.

The compilation of corporate profits and state taxes was conducted by the Institution on Taxation and Economic Policy and Citizens for Tax Justice and released in California by the California Public Interest Research Group.

It covered 265 of the Fortune 500 corporations that reported profits for three straight years, 2008-2010, including 33 based in California.

Nationwide, the 265 firms had a combined $1.33 trillion in profits during the three-year period but on average, paid just 3 percent of those earnings in state corporate income taxes.

California is still growing, adding just over a quarter-million people during the year that ended June 30, according to the state's annual population survey, but is not attracting immigrants from other states and nations as it once did.

In fact, the state Department of Finance's demographers concluded, the state had a net outmigration of 22,000 persons during the year - 132,000 immigrants from other countries minus 154,000 Californians who moved out. Or to put it another way, births (511,000) and deaths (228,000) accounted for all of the state's net population growth of 260,000.

In numerical terms, that's less than half of what the state experienced during the 1980s, but it still means that California, with an estimated 37.6 million people as of July 1, is likely to approach 40 million by 2020.

Previous state estimates put California's population about one million higher, but demographers have adjusted the number downward to comport with the 2010 census.

Riverside was easily the fastest growing California county during the 2010-11 period, both in numbers (34,752) and percentage (1.59 percent), while 18 rural California counties lost population. Los Angeles, with 9.9 million residents, remains California's largest by a wide margin, with more than a quarter of the state's population, but its growth, just 30,497 during the period, was less than a third of the state's growth rate.

RB BOE Tobacco CigaretteTax Stamps.JPGCalifornia had one of the nation's first state-financed anti-smoking programs, but it is now being criticized by a national health coalition for its relatively low level of spending.

The Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids says in a new nationwide report that California ranks 22nd in the nation by spending just 15.8 percent of what the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends on smoking prevention.

The state's spending on anti-tobacco programs, $70 million a year, is financed entirely by a special increase in cigarette taxes in 1999. The coalition is critical of California and other states for not spending more from a massive, multibillion-dollar national settlement of a lawsuit against tobacco companies. The state is now receiving $1.7 billion a year from that settlement but, like most other states, is using the money for general purposes.

The Tobacco-Free Kids group, a coalition of health and children's advocacy groups, contends that 13.8 percent of California's high school students smoke. However, smoking has plummeted in California in recent years to the second lowest level of any state, 12.8 percent of adults. Only Utah, at 9.8 percent, is lower.

The issue is likely to be rejoined next year because a measure has qualified for the June primary ballot that would increase California's cigarette tax by $1 per pack to finance cancer research and anti-smoking programs.

"Next year, California voters can make their state a leader again in the fight against tobacco by approving the California Cancer Research Act," said Matthew L. Myers, president of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids. "Increasing the cigarette tax will reduce smoking, especially among kids, while providing much needed funds for cancer research and tobacco prevention. This initiative will save lives and save money by reducing tobacco-related health care costs."

PHOTO CREDIT: Two packs of cigarettes are stamped with California tax stamps. Sacramento Bee file, 2006 / Randall Benton

California's population increased by 10 percent between 2000 and 2010 but the number of Californians living in poverty grew more than three times as fast, a new U.S. Census Bureau report reveals.

The data are found in a massive compilation of poverty statistics broken down by state, county and school district. And if the Census Bureau adopts a proposed new method gauging poverty, which takes into account regional and local costs of living and other factors, the state's poverty rate may climb even higher.

In 2000, 4.3 million Californians were living in poverty but by 2010, the number had increased to 5.8 million, a 34.3 percent jump that reflected the serious recession that has gripped the state in recent years. The state's overall rate climbed from 12.7 percent in 2000 to 15.8 percent in 2010.

Virtually every region of the state was affected, from the most affluent counties in the San Francisco Bay Area to the poorest in interior agricultural areas.

San Mateo County had the state's lowest poverty rate in 2000 at 5.1 percent and was still lowest in 2010, but had seen a rise to 7 percent. Imperial County, in the state's southeastern corner, had the highest poverty rate in 2000 at 24.7 percent, nearly twice the state rate, but by 2010 had ceded that dubious title to Fresno's 26.8 percent.

As the holiday buying season begins, Californians' confidence in their economic futures is declining, a new statewide survey by San Jose State University finds.

SJSU's Survey and Policy Research Institute says that its overall consumer sentiment index has dropped 10 points in the last year to 64.5, and the index of future expectations has dropped as well. The poll, conducted in October, found that 43 percent of California adults described their personal financial situations as worse than they were a year earlier.

As constructed, the index rates anything above 100 as positive and anything below that level as negative. It's similar to the national index of consumer confidence developed at the University of Michigan, and the latest SJSU survey results closely track those at the national level in the latest Michigan poll.

"The good news here is that we are starting to see some improvement in consumer
confidence statewide," said Melinda Jackson, the institute's research director. "The bad news is that attitudes are still fairly pessimistic overall. We may have turned the corner on the worst of the recession, but there is not a lot of hope for a quick recovery in these numbers."

In fact, 85 percent of the survey's respondents believe that the state remains in recession, even though technically it has hit bottom and is in recovery, and more half said they expected recession to continue for at least three more years.

California has more children living in poverty than any other state -- more than 2 million -- but its rate of child poverty, while rising, is about average, a new U.S. Census Bureau report indicates.

The report on child poverty is one of several new Census Bureau data dumps that deal with immigration, various indices of poverty, disability among children and the rising numbers of Americans who are 90-plus years old.

The analysis of data from the American Community Survey found that the number of American children living in poverty rose from 14.7 million in 2009 to 15.7 million in 2010 with the rate also rising from 20 percent to 21.6 percent.

In California, the number rose from 1.8 million to 2 million and the rate from 19.9 percent to 22 percent, apparently reflecting the severe recession that was still deepening.

California's state and local governments spent well over $300 billion in 2009, accounting for nearly a fifth of the state's economy, according to a very detailed new report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

A Census Bureau spreadsheet reveals not only the gross amounts of revenue and spending, but details about how the money was collected and where it was spent.

Overall state and local revenues were $317.6 billion during the year, with the federal government supplying $66.7 billion or just over a fifth of the total. The remaining $251 billion was almost exactly divided between the state and local governments, with property, income and sales taxes contributing the bulk of the total, which also included fees on users of services, retirement fund contributions and other miscellaneous sources.

Total state and local spending was listed at $430.1 billion, but that included duplications from intergovernmental transfers. Net spending was closer to $350 billion, including about $47 billion in public works, much of which was financed from bonds.

California generally - and the Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay Area specifically - have higher levels of household income inequality than the nation as a whole, according to a new Census Bureau statistical analysis.

California is one of seven states, plus the District of Columbia, that have the highest levels of inequality on all three indices of disparity used in the report, although California's inequality scores are the lowest of the eight. The District of Columbia has the highest level. The others -- a mixture of high- and low-income states -- are New York, Connecticut, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas and Alabama.

However, a number of major (more than 1 million residents) California communities are cited in the report as having relatively low levels of income inequality, such as San Diego, San Jose, the Riverside-San Bernardino area, the Sacramento-Roseville metropolitan area.

Elk Grove is also cited as having a low level of inequality, and two of the state's census tracts, one in Kern County and another in Los Angeles County, are on short list of tracts with the nation's lowest levels of inequality.

The data and the indices were developed from a series of surveys conducted by the Census Bureau.

The number of Californians living in poverty increased to nearly six million - more than the populations of most states - between 2009 and 2010, according to a new Census Bureau report.

Californians living in poverty increased from 5.1 million in 2009 to 5.8 million in 2010, and the state's poverty rate jumped from 14.2 percent to 15.8 percent during the one-year period, virtually mirroring national trends. That means that California was almost exactly in the middle of the states, whose poverty rates last year ranged from a high of 22.4 percent in Mississippi (not counting Puerto Rico) to a low of 8.3 percent in New Hampshire.

The rates were derived from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and were based on how many families were below a "poverty threshold" that varies by age, number of children and family size and is updated to account for inflation.

Four of California's larger urban areas were included in the Census Bureau's 10-region list of those with the highest poverty rates, with Fresno the nation's second most poverty-stricken area at 26.8 percent, Bakersfield-Delano fourth highest at 21.2 percent, Modesto sixth at 19.9 percent, and Stockton seventh at 19.2 percent.

No large metropolitan area in California is found on the list of those with the lowest poverty rates, which is topped by Washington-Arlington-Alexandria at 8.4 percent.

A separate Census Bureau report, meanwhile, found that California is one of the relatively few states in which the percentage of families receiving some form of welfare assistance increased between 2009 and 2010.

The welfare report, also derived from the American Community Survey, says that the proportion of California families receiving welfare at some point during the year increased from 3.7 percent in 2009 to 4 percent in 2010. Both numbers were well above of the national rates of 2.6 and 2.9 percent.

The survey analysis found that while 449,059 California families received welfare support in 2009 and the number increased to 500,432 in 2010, by far the largest numerical increase of any state.

California's housing market is still in turmoil with foreclosures, short sales and only a relative handful of new homes being built.

The bottom line, at least as shown by the 2010 census, is that California wound up with the nation's second lowest rate of home ownership, just ahead of New York, or third lowest if the District of Columbia is included, according to a new Census Bureau report.

California had 12.2 million housing units in 2000, the Census Bureau says, and while its population was growing by 10 percent during the succeeding decade, housing units rose by 12 percent to 13.7 million, of which 12.6 million were occupied. But those occupied by owners increased by just 7.5 percent.

That meant that 55.9 percent of California's houses, apartments, condominiums and other forms of housing were occupied by owners, barely higher than New York's 53.3 percent. Washington D.C.'s rate was 42 percent.

West Virginia, one of the nation's poorest states, had the highest rate of home ownership at 73.4 percent. The national rate was 65.1 percent. Overall, the Census Bureau said, the South and the West, which are the nation's fastest growing regions in population, also led in housing growth.

The surge of foreign immigration into the United States - and especially into California - during the last few decades has slowed markedly, thanks largely to prolonged economic downturn, but immigration will continue to have major effects, thanks to the burgeoning second generations, a new demographic study indicates.

The percentage of U.S. residents who are foreign-born or children of immigrants will increase from 22.5 percent in 2010 to 30.5 percent by 2040, the study issued by the University of Southern California's Population Dynamics Research Group forecasts. And by 2030, the researchers found, a majority of the nation's foreign-born residents will have lived in the country for at least two decades.

Previous research by the same group determined that immigration has had more than twice the impact on California as it has on the nation as a whole, and thus immigrants, who are mostly from Mexico and other Latin American countries, and their children are already more than half of California's population. Latinos alone are expected to be the largest single ethnic group in California by mid-decade.

"We're marking a major transformation in America," said Dowell Myers, a professor in USC's School of Policy, Planning and Development and co-author of the report.

The USC report estimates the foreign-born population in 2010 based on a detailed demographic accounting of annual population changes through births, deaths and migration. These estimates provide information not available in the 2010 Census, the first census in over a century that did not record residents' place of birth.

California's economy remains locked in recession and wages have been stagnant, but nevertheless living costs - especially taxes - have risen. That's putting a squeeze on many families, according to a new county-by-county compilation of the "true cost of living."

The report from the Oakland-based Insight Center for Community Economic Development provides statistical ammunition not only for advocates of raising minimum wages and other steps to aid the poor, but for conservative anti-tax groups since the center found that taxes are the largest single element in living cost increases.

The study was designed as an alternative to the commonly used federal poverty standard, which critics say does not take into account the real costs of living. It updates a report previously issued in 2008, and found that double-digit increases in living costs are common throughout the state.

"The Self-Sufficiency Standard...provides us with a true picture of the needs within the communities we serve, informs how we tailor our approaches to increasing financial stability and helps us measure progress toward our collective goals," Peter Manzo, president of United Ways of California, said in a statement accompanying release of the report. "We believe that to build financial stability, you have to see and address all the issues including health, education, and income."

California workers are less likely than most Americans to have employer-sponsored retirement plans, according to a new academic report, and nearly half of them will retire in or near poverty status.

The report was issued Monday by the Center for Labor Research at the University of California, Berkeley. Among other thing, the researchers, Sylvia Allegretto and Nari Rhee, found that California's retirees are overwhelmingly dependent on Social Security for retirement income because of the relative lack of supplemental retirement benefits.

Social Security, they said, provides 79.1 percent of retirement income for those in the bottom quartile of retirees by income, and 70.3 percent for the middle 50 percent.

Employer-sponsored pension systems account for just 15.5 percent of income for the middle 50 percent, but only 52 percent of California employers offer pension plans, markedly lower than the 58 percent nationwide. And of those California plans, 61 percent are defined-contribution systems such as a 401k, rather than traditional defined-benefit plans.

The researchers project that 46.7 percent of California's workers aged 25-64 will have retirement incomes below 200 percent of the federal poverty threshold.

"Our research shows how important Social Security is to the middle class," Rhee said in a statement that accompanied release of the study, "and in order for today's workers to retire in dignity, they also need access to a supplemental plan that can provide secure income in retirement."

Mark DiCamillo has a bone to pick with the U.S. Census Bureau over its report this week on 2010 voting patterns.

The report said that in last November's election, 22.8 million Californians were eligible to vote - i.e. citizens 18 years or older - but that just 13.8 million were registered and 10.7 million voted. The data were reported in a Capitol alert item, sparking an email from DiCamillo, who directs the state's oldest and most respected polling operation, the Field Poll.

"I was puzzled when I read your latest posting about how CA's registration and voting rates are among the lowest in the nation. So, I went to the census report link to see why this was so, DiCamillo wrote. "Lo and behold I think the people at the census department really blew it."

Although the Census Bureau had said 13.8 million Californians were registered to vote last year, DiCamillo noted that actual registration, as compiled by the secretary of state's office, was 17.3 million for the November 2010 election. State election officials also calculated the potentially eligible voter number at 23.6 million, nearly a million higher than the Census Bureau's number.

So obviously the Census Bureau's figure was numerically wrong - by a lot. But was it statistically wrong as well?

This is one of those anomalies that stems from California's status as - by far - the nation's most populous state.

A new Census Bureau report reveals that California has the fifth largest black population of any state - 2.7 million - but proportionately, the state's black population is scarcely half as large as that of the nation as a whole and is shrinking in relative terms.

The 2010 census found that California's black population rose by just 170,000 in the previous decade, or 6.8 percent. That was markedly lower than the state's overall population growth of 10 percent, and reduced the state's black proportion to 7.2 percent, just over half of the 13.6 percent recorded in the nation as a whole.

RP VOTE SIGN.JPGCalifornia has the nation's second-lowest rate of voter registration and one of its lowest voter turnout rates, according to a new Census Bureau report on the 2010 elections.

Just 50.1 percent of California's 27.4 million voting-age residents were registered to vote for last year's election, higher only than Hawaii's 48.3 percent, the state-by-state breakdown of political participation found. The national rate was 59.8 percent.

The state's voter turnout, 39.2 percent of voting-age residents, was one of the lower rates, but not the lowest. Ten other states had lower voting levels with Texas, at 31.4 percent, the lowest; the national rate was 45.5 percent.

California's low participation is explained, in part, by the fact that many of its residents (17 percent, twice the national percentage) are non-citizens -- a factor that shows up in the racial and ethnic breakdown as well. Just 64.5 percent of voting-age Latinos are citizens, for example, which explains why just 33.6 percent of voting-age Latinos are registered to vote, while 52.9 percent of white voting-age Californians are registered.

The survey found that 38.1 percent of voting-age Asian Americans in California are registered to vote -- another number depressed by relatively low levels of citizenship (76 percent) but that 54 percent of African Americans are registered, higher than the white registration level.

PHOTO CREDIT: Sacramento County residents vote at the voter registration and election office in Sacramento on Nov. 1, 2010. Sacramento Bee file / Randy Pench

California may have the largest number of same-sex households -- married and unmarried -- of any state, a new Census Bureau study indicates, but several other states have higher percentages.

The report is a revision of what the 2010 census found, correcting what census officials said was a potential error in the wording of a question.

The 2000 census found that just over one-half of 1 percent of households were same-sex couples, but the 2010 census resulted in the much-higher figure of 0.773 percent. The latter resulted, officials said, from "an inconsistency of responses ... that artificially inflated the number of same-sex couples."

The California politicians who complain that the state is being shortchanged in federal spending got some new statistical ammunition Tuesday from an exhaustive report by the U.S. Census Bureau on federal spending during the 2010 fiscal year.

It revealed that on a per capita basis, California was the seventh lowest recipient of federal spending among the states at about $9,000, although its total of $333.8 billion was by far the highest of any state. The states ranged from a high of nearly $18,000 per capita in Alaska to under $8,000 in Nevada. To put it another way, California, with 12.1 percent of the nation's population, received just 9.8 percent of federal spending.

The state's generally younger population depressed relative spending on Social Security and other pension programs, its defense industry has declined sharply with the end of the Cold War and state government has been unable, for budgetary reasons, to maximize federal support for health, welfare and education programs.

A separate Census Bureau report reveals that in direct federal aid to state and local governments, California fared a little better last year - 13th lowest at a little under $2,000 per capita. The total was $66.6 billion, slightly over 10 percent of the national total of government-to-government aid.

California may be mired in recession, but it's still collecting state taxes that are markedly higher, in proportion to its population, than the nation as a whole, according to a new data release by the U.S. Census Bureau.

California has 12.1 percent of the nation's population but during the second quarter of 2011 accounted for 15.9 percent of state tax collections with $35.9 billion. That was $2.4 billion more than in the second quarter of 2010, but more than $3 billion lower than in 2008, before the housing market collapsed and the state spiraled into recession.

The numbers come from the Census Bureau's quarterly report on state and local finances. Overall, states collected $226 billion in taxes during the second quarter and local governments added another $108.5 billion. The revenues include both taxes for general purposes and those restricted to special purposes, such as those on fuel.

California's second quarter total was influenced by the expiration of a temporary personal income surtax at the end of 2010, but the overall quarter-to-quarter increase in revenues indicate that slightly improved economic conditions offset the loss. Even so, income taxes accounted for 46.7 percent of total California collections.

Two other temporary tax increases, on sales and automobiles, expired on June 30. Gov. Jerry Brown wanted to extend all of the temporary taxes, which were first enacted in 2009, to balance the state budget, but was unable to gain enough Republican votes to put the extensions on the ballot this year. He's now planning an initiative tax measure for the November, 2012, ballot, but has not settled on what the mix of levies would be.

Californians are worried about the stagnant economy and are generally sour on the direction the state is headed, but Gov. Jerry Brown gets relatively high marks for his performance to date, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

PPIC found that 41 percent of Californians and 45 percent of likely voters approve of Brown's efforts to balance the state budget and otherwise govern -- not an overwhelming endorsement but, compared to most other politicians, relatively strong.

Just a few days earlier, the Field Poll came up with similar results, a 49 percent approval rating for Brown.

"Most Californians -- regardless of political party -- say things are going in the wrong direction in the state and the nation," Mark Baldassare, PPIC's president, says in a statement accompanying release of the poll results.

"Most don't see evidence that the president's attempts to stimulate the economy have had a positive impact -- although when asked to choose, they side with him over the Republicans in Congress," Baldassare added. "And for most Californians, the impact of the state's budget problems have hit home. In every region of the state, majorities say that state budget cuts have affected their local government services a lot."

Here are other findings in the PPIC poll:

California's state and local governments employed more than two million full- and part-time workers in 2010, and they were paid about $10 billion a month, a new data dump from the Census Bureau shows.

The California data were gleaned from the Census Bureau's annual census of government employment, taken in March 2010, and indicate that state and local governments are, collectively, one of the largest segments of the state's $2 trillion per year economy.

California's 2.16 million government employees translate into 1.79 million "full-time equivalent" workers, and the $9.7 billion paid to them in March 2010 translates into an average full-time salary of nearly $5,500 per month.

The state employed the full-time equivalent of 410,653 workers that month, while local governments, including schools, had the equivalent of 1.4 million employees on their payrolls. The Census Bureau noted that the state's local agencies had dropped nearly 48,000 part-time workers since the 2009 census while California's state government added 2,836 part-timers.

Higher education, with the full-time equivalent of 158,064 workers, was by far the state government's largest category of employment, followed by the prison system's 61,710. Education, with the full-time equivalent of 722,847 workers, accounted for more than half of local government employment, followed by law enforcement with 90,263, public hospitals with 66,260, and welfare with 64,879.

The California state government report is available here while local government data can be found here.

When recession struck the California economy, it eliminated more than a million jobs and, a new statistical report shows, it also cut workers' compensation coverage and benefit payouts.

The report from the Washington-based National Academy of Social Insurance says that in 2009, the number of California workers covered by workers' compensation for work-related illnesses and injuries dropped by 5.7 percent from the previous year to 14.4 million.

Similarly, wages covered by workers' compensation -- either insurance or employers' self-insurance funds -- dropped 5.6 percent to $738 billion. And workers' compensation benefits, both cash and medical care, declined by 1.6 percent to $9.3 billion.

Since recession hit harder in California than in most other states, the workers' compensation effects were more pronounced here than nationally, the report indicates. Nationwide, the number of workers covered by workers' compensation programs dropped 4.4 percent in 2009 and covered wages by 4.7 percent while benefits remained virtually unchanged.

MC_DAYINTHEPARK_16_WEDDING.JPGCalifornians were just as likely to get married in 2009 as everyone else in the nation, but were markedly less likely to get divorced, according to "Marital Events of Americans," a new data report by the Census Bureau.

Overall 19.1 of every 1,000 California men got married in 2009, exactly the same rate as all American men, while the marriage rate of California's women that year, 17.6, was ever-so-slightly higher than the national rate of 17.5.

Marriage rates ranged widely in 2009, from a high of 30.7 for men and 28.7 for women in Wyoming to a low of 13.5 for men and 12.2 for women in Maine. That was in keeping with regional trends of high marriage rates in the West and low marital activity in the Northeast.

California's men had a divorce rate in 2009 of 8 per 1,000, well under the national rate of 9.2, while the state's women, at a rate of 8.9 divorces per 1,000, were also below the national women's rate of 9.7.

Like those of marriage, national divorce rates also showed a wide state-to-state variance.

The highest male divorce rate was in Arkansas at 13.5 and the lowest in New Jersey at 6.1. New Jersey also had the lowest women's divorce rate at 6, while Alaska had the highest, 16.2. Regionally, the South had the highest incidence of divorce while the Northeast, lowest in marriage, was also lowest in divorce.

When it came to widowhood, California's rates for both men and women were well below the national average, perhaps reflecting its relatively young population. But California's women were more than twice as likely as its men to lose a spouse during the year, mirroring the national data.

PHOTO CREDIT: Minutes after their wedding ceremony, Jeremy Rutledge holds his new wife Andrea Griffey's hands as they walk through the rose garden at Sacramento's McKinley Park on July 19, 2011. Manny Crisostomo / Sacramento Bee

While state school officials continuously lament reductions in state education financing, they also continue to report fractional gains in academic achievement, with the latest being an upbeat report on high school exit examination passage rates.

State schools Supt. Tom Torlakson said Wednesday that nearly 95 percent of those in this year's senior class passed the test and passage rates among African American and Latino students increased.

"It is heartening to see that our students continue to learn and achieve despite the painful toll that budget cuts are taking on our schools," Torlakson said. "The results of this year's exit examination--and the progress schools are making to close the achievement gap--are yet another sign of the remarkable commitment that teachers, school employees, and administrators have to the students of California."

The results, are broken down by county, district and school as well as demographic subgroup.

Torlakson said they show increasing passing rates among most demographic subgroups with approximately 94.6 percent or 422,558 students in the Class of 2011 successfully passed both the English-language arts and the mathematics portions of the exit exam by the end of their senior year. The passage rate in 2010 was a tenth of a percentage point lower, 94.5 percent.

The exit exam completion rate among black students increased from 89.6 percent in 2010 to 90.9 percent this year while that of Latinos increased from 91.4 percent to 92.3 percent. That of Asian American students also increased from 97.4 percent to 97.7 percent while among white students, it increased from 98.1 percent to 98.4 percent.

Another trend in the latest report is that more students are taking and passing the test in the 10th grade, the first time it is administered. More than 82 percent of this year's sophomores have already passed the English and mathematics portions of the test.

California voters are unhappy with their political figures' performance and want change, but are ambivalent that would improve government efficacy, a new "deliberative poll" has found.

The poll was organized and financed by a consortium of foundations and think tanks under the rubric of "What's Next California?" and brought together a cross-section of more than 400 voters in Torrance two months ago.

Their attitudes were tested at the onset and then again after they received briefings on legislative representation, the initiative process, local government and tax and budget policy. The results were released Monday at a Sacramento news conference.

While there were marked attitudinal changes on some issues, the net results largely mirrored results of recent telephone surveys by the Field Poll, the Public Policy Institute of California and the USC/Los Angeles Times poll.

Some indices of well-being among California's children -- educational progress and access to health care, for instance -- have been improving, but most are relatively unchanged and some economic factors have worsened in recent years, an exhaustive new data compilation indicates.

More than a third of California's nearly 10 million children are living in homes in which no parent has full-time, year-round employment, according to the Kids Count Data Book, a nationwide report on children's conditions underwritten by the Annie E. Casey Foundation.

The yearly compilation, released Wednesday, includes two new factors related to the recession -- children affected by home foreclosure and those with at least one unemployed parent. It found that while nationally, 4 percent of children had been impacted by foreclosure, in California it's 7 percent. And while nationally 11 percent of children had a parent who lost a job, in California it's 13 percent.

More than 200 Californians with severe mental illnesses have found housing under a new state program, but changes are needed to achieve its goal of helping 10,000 homeless mentally ill persons with housing by 2027, a new legislative report says.

The program, financed primarily from proceeds of a 1 percent income surtax on very high income taxpayers, is aimed at creating "permanent supportive housing."

Initially, the program has a $400 million commitment of surtax funds that otherwise would have been spent by counties on direct services to the mentally ill. That's supposed to finance 2,500 units of housing. The report from the Senate Office of Oversight and Outcomes says that while urban counties have moved aggressively to create housing, the program has lagged in small rural counties whose allocations of mental health funds are small and whose officials lack experience in housing development.

The report recommends that rules governing the program be relaxed in the 11 smallest counties to make it easier for them to apply the housing funds.

The Office of Oversight and Outcomes was created by Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg and staffed largely with ex-Capitol reporters. Steinberg was the chief author of the 2004 ballot measures that imposed the surtax on those with incomes over a million dollars and dedicated its proceeds to local mental health services.

The report, written by Nancy Vogel, a former Sacramento Bee and Los Angeles Times reporter, can be found here.

California's smallest businesses - those without employees - were clobbered by the first two years of recession, a new Census Bureau report shows, with more than 80,000 ceasing operations and the survivors' annual incomes dropping by more than $20 billion.

The number of California's non-employee businesses hit a high mark of 2.76 million in 2007 but by 2009 had dropped by 82,878, the Census Bureau report, based on Internal Revenue Service data, found. Business receipts declined from $145 billion to $121 billion during the two-year period.

While small business took big hits throughout the nation during the same period, the impact on California was markedly heavier than on most states. It trailed only New York and Pennsylvania in the decline between 2008 and 2009, the Census Bureau said, while San Diego County suffered the second largest decline of any county, losing 2,829 small businesses in one year. New York County in New York saw the largest numerical decline.

Not surprisingly, the impact has been the heaviest on California businesses with direct roles in the real estate market meltdown, particularly real estate firms, which dropped by 47,000 from 2007 to 2009, and construction, down about 10,000.

Not all states suffered declines, however, with Texas adding 8,260 small firms between 2008 and 2009. The full report, with state-by-state interactive data, is available here.

Two groundbreaking studies of illegal immigrants have concluded that while California has far more than any other state -- 2.6 million -- the number has declined slightly as other states become more attractive working and living destinations for border crossers.

The studies were conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, one a survey of illegal immigration from the national perspective and the other concentrating on California. Both were done by Laura Hill and Hans Johnson and were aimed at creating a factual basis for the often heated debate over the impact of illegal immigration.

The national study concluded that illegal immigrants comprise more than a quarter of the U.S. foreign-born population and slightly less than the entire national population. But the numbers have declined slightly in recent years, due to the shrinkage of employment in what's been termed the "Great Recession" and stepped up border security and immigration law enforcement. The latter has nearly quadrupled deportations since the late 1990s.

The last decade saw a major housing boom, followed by a cataclysmic bust, and the net result was a declining rate of home ownership in California, according to a new analysis of 2010 census data by University of Southern California demographer Dowell Myers.

Beyond the raw numbers, says Myers, the census data revealed a generational and ethnic transfer between an aging white population and a relatively young Latino population. During the last decade, white home ownership dropped by 157,877 units while Latino-owned homes increased by 383,778 with the latter group accounting for more than three-quarters of ownership growth in the state.

The overall increase in owner-occupied homes, just under a half-million during the decade, was less than half the numerical increase in the 1980s and the state's overall home ownership rate, 55.9 percent, is one percentage point lower than it was in 2000 and the second lowest rate in the nation, just ahead of New York.

Within California, home ownership rates vary widely from a low of 35.8 percent in densely populated San Francisco to well over 70 percent in foothill and mountain counties.

The slowing incidence of home ownership, Myers noted, lessens upward pressure on home prices in the supply-demand equation.

The full study from USC's Population Dynamics Research Group can be found here.

After a half-decade of drifting downward, California's public school enrollment edged upward during the 2010-11 school year, according to a new collection of data from the state Department of Education.

Enrollment hit a high of just over 6.3 million in 2004-05 and dropped to just under 6.2 million in 2009-10 before increasing by about 27,000. Education officials say the upward trend "may be the result of a more complete data collection" but it could also reflect an increase in births in recent years.

The data was collected through CALPADS, the state's new education data collection system. Ironically, however, Gov. Jerry Brown's new budget would eliminate money for the system, saying that it needs an in-depth evaluation before continuing.

The new enrollment report, which includes data by county, grade level and ethnicity, can be found here.

While California's population is aging, it's still one of the nation's youngest, according to a new data set from the Census Bureau.

The 2010 census found that Californians' median age is 35.2, up two years from 2000, but it's still lower than all but four other states and the District of Columbia, the bureau's report says.

The state's median age is also two years younger than the nation's, at 37.2.

The oldest state is Vermont, with a median age of 41.5. The youngest is Utah at 29.2. (The two states are adjacent to one another in the alphabetical listing.)

Other states (and districts) with lower median ages than California include Texas (33.6), the District of Columbia (33.8), Alaska (also at 33.8) and Idaho (34.6).

California's Latino population grew nearly three times as much as the state as a whole in the last decade, making the state home to more than a quarter of the nation's Latinos, according to a new Census Bureau report.

While California's population grew by 10 percent, the 2010 census found, the Latino growth was 27.6 percent, accounting for more than 90 percent of the state's overall population gain. Latinos accounted for more than half of the nation's growth during the decade and now are 16.3 percent of the U.S. population.

Latinos, the census said, now are 37.6 percent of all Californians, up more than five percentage points since 2000. That percentage is exactly the same as that of Texas, with both states trailing only New Mexico, at 46.3 percent.

Many states have seen higher Latino growth rates than California, some nearly 150 percent, such as Alabama and South Carolina.

Latinos now trail non-Latino whites in California by about four percentage points. They are expected to become the state's largest ethnic group by mid-decade.

Their expanding numbers are playing a major role in redrawing legislative and congressional districts. The maps now being drawn by the state's new redistricting commission are expected to result in a sharp increase in Latino officeholders. Preliminary versions of the new maps are to be released on June 10.

The four most dangerous metropolitan areas for pedestrians are in Florida, a new nationwide study has found, but No. 5 is the Riverside-San Bernardino area of Southern California.

California, meanwhile, ranks as the nation's 16th most dangerous state for pedestrians, according to the detailed study of pedestrian death data by Transportation for America, a Washington-based coalition of private organizations and local governments that lobbies for transportation spending. It contends that spending more money on better design would reduce the number of pedestrians who are killed and injured.

Riverside-San Bernardino is the only large metro area (over one million population) in the 10 most pedestrian-dangerous. Sacramento is 21st, Los Angeles-Long Beach is 27th, San Diego is 28th and San Francisco-Oakland is 41st on the list of 52 large regions.

Within California, Del Norte County has the highest pedestrian fatality rate. The study also found that Latinos and African-Americans are about 50 percent more likely to be a pedestrian injury or death victim than white or Asian-American Californians, mirroring a nationwide trend.

Details on the study's findings about California are available here.

Recently released details of the 2010 census in California reveal two important sociological trends about the state, according to analyses by the University of Southern California's School of Policy, Planning and Development.

One is that while Californians still congregate in households as much as they ever did, their composition is changing with fewer traditional husband-and-wife-and-kids families and more headed by single parents or unmarried adults without children. In fact, just one third of California's 12.6 million households include children, which is one of the lowest ratios of any state.

The second finding, related to the household analysis, is that the number of children also declined in California during the last decade even as the state's population rose by 10 percent, which coincides with an aging trend in the population as a whole.

More than half of California's population is now over 35 years old and the median age of 35.2 is two years higher than it was in the 2000 census. The number of California children aged 5 to 9 declined by 220,041 from 2000 to 2010, and the drop in Los Angeles County alone was 260,195.

"We are ground zero of the 'missing children' of California," said Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography at USC and a co-author of both analyses.

Whether the decline of children is permanent or temporary, however, is open to question. Births dropped off sharply in California during the late 1990s and early 2000s, but picked up later in the decade. Also, many demographers suspect that the 2010 census missed hundreds of thousands of people in Los Angeles County, especially those in its very large population of illegal immigrants.

A synopsis of the USC study on aging is available here while the household analysis can be found here and the data tables that include county-by-county numbers are here.

California's unemployment rate declined in April to 11.9 percent. the first time in months that it had dropped below 12 percent. So that's good news, right?

It all depends on how you look at it.

While a lower unemployment rate is always welcome, it doesn't necessarily mean that more Californians have jobs because the rate is the percentage of the labor force that lacks jobs. So it depends not only on how many workers have jobs, but on how many are considered part of the labor force.

In California's case, according to the Employment Development Department, the calculation is this:

--The state's civilian labor force (seasonally adjusted) was 18.1 million in April, employment was just under 16 million and 2.1 million were unemployed for a jobless rate of 11.9 percent, down from 12 percent in March.

--April's rate was a half-percent lower than the 12.4 percent of April, 2010, but 41,000 fewer Californians were employed, so the lower rate was largely because the labor force declined by 173,000 during that 12-month period.

Unemployed workers are counted out of the labor force when they stop looking for work and rejoin the labor force when they sense that employment might be available. So even were employment to increase, the unemployment rate might be unchanged, or even increase, because of labor force growth.

Population growth is another factor. The state is gaining population by about 1 percent a year, and roughly half of the population is made up of potential workers. So California needs about 150,000 new jobs a year to keep pace with natural labor force growth, both immigrants from other states and nations and young men and women who reach working age - minus those who have retired or died.

RB Jerry Brown Budget 6.JPGIt's time for some fun with numbers.

When Gov. Jerry Brown unveiled his revised state budget Monday, one of his talking points -- which he illustrated with a graph -- was that as proposed, "general fund spending drops to 1972-73 level" as measured by personal income.

The factoid is a piece of Brown's campaign to persuade Californians to raise taxes because he's being tight with the public buck.

But is it true? Close, but probably not quite good enough to win one of Arnold Schwarzenegger's leftover cigars.

Californians are feeling a little more positive about their current economic situations, according to a new poll from San Jose State University, but they're a little more negative about the future.

San Jose State's Survey and Policy Research Institute's April poll found that the overall "index of consumer sentiment," which combines attitudes about current conditions and future expectations, had dropped to 70.2 among Californians.

Any number below 100 is considered negative. The latest number is four points below the last survey in October and only slightly higher than the 68.8 score recorded a year earlier.

Even though the recession officially ended months ago, the state's unemployment rate remains high at more than 12 percent. Of those polled, 86 percent said the state is still in recession, with 48 percent believing it's a serious recession.

Click here to read the survey results.

Metaphysically, if not physically, California has often been depicted as two distinct states -- even sparking periodic efforts to divide it officially.

For many years, it was Northern California vs. Southern California. More recently, demographers, geographers and political pundits have seen it as coastal California vs. inland California.

To Sarah Burd-Sharps and Kristen Lewis, however, there are five distinct Californias that are defined more by quality of life than geography. They are co-directors of the American Human Development Project, which analyzes states (California is the third) on the basis of how well their residents are doing in income, health and education, using data from a variety of sources.

"A Portrait of California" is the latest version, following similar analyses of Mississippi and Louisiana. The 179-page report covers virtually every corner of the state, applying a 10-point scale of personal well-being.

Its five distinct clusters range from "Silicon Valley Shangri-La," which scores an almost perfect 9.35 on the three indices for just 1 percent of the state's population, to the "Forgotten Five Percent" of residents in inner city Los Angeles and small farm towns at 2.59.

In between are the "Metro-Coastal Enclave" (18 percent of Californians) at 7.92, "Main Street California" (38 percent) at 5.91 and "Struggling California" (38 percent) at 4.17.

Asian Californians sit atop the population in most measures while Latinos and African Americans are near the bottom, although the authors note the remarkable longevity of Latinos.

"The analysis reveals that some Californians are enjoying the highest levels of well-being and access to opportunity in the nation today, while others are experiencing levels of well-being that characterized the nation decades ago," the report declares.

The report will be unveiled today at noon in Sacramento at the California State Association of Counties conference center at 11th Street and K Street Mall. The event is open to the public.

Talk about a data dump.

The U.S. Census Bureau is releasing all the details of its 2010 census in California, slicing and dicing its 37.3 million residents by race and ethnicity, age, gender, marital status and housing.

Among the more salient points:

• The median age of all Californians is 35.2 years old, nearly two years younger than the nation as a whole.

• The state's males, with a median age of 34, are markedly younger than its females at 36.3.

• The largest single age group are those 15 to 19 years old, with 7.6 percent of the state's population, while the smallest are, not surprisingly, those in the 80-84 and 85-plus age categories at 1.6 percent each.

• Latinos, with 37.6 percent of the state's population, are very close to overtaking non-Latino whites at 40.1 percent. Most demographers expect Latinos to become the state's largest ethnic group by mid-decade.

• Asians are now 13 percent of California's residents, with African Americans at 6.2 percent. Chinese are the largest Asian ethnic group at 3.4 percent, with Filipinos a close second at 3.2 percent.

• The average California household is 2.9 persons and the average family size is 3.45 persons.

• Families make up 68.7 percent of the state's 12.6 million households. Traditional husband-and-wife families are half of those households and nearly half of households have children at home.

• Overall, 37.5 percent of California households have children under 18, while 24.7 percent include residents 65 years or older.

• Just 55.9 percent of Californians live in owner-occupied housing, which is higher than only the District of Columbia at 45.6 percent and New York at 54.5 percent. West Virginia has the nation's highest homeownership rate at 79 percent.

The new data are available here.

Airline passengers flying from Fresno paid the nation's third highest domestic air fares last year, while those leaving Long Beach paid the fifth lowest, according to a new report from the federal Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS).

Neither airport has an extensive array of airlines, but travel from Fresno often involves relatively expensive commuter airlines to make connections while Long Beach passengers benefit from discounter Jet Blue's extensive use of their airport.

The BTS report, available here, says that during the fourth quarter of 2010, the average ticket from Fresno cost $440, below just two other airports, Newark, N.J., and Charleston, S.C., among the nation's 100 busiest airports. Meanwhile, the average Long Beach ticket was $252, higher than just four other airports.

While Newark was the most expensive originating airport, nearby Atlantic City was the cheapest.

Notwithstanding the proliferation of movies, television channels, video games, smart phones and iPads, Californians still read a lot of books, a new University of Southern California Dornsife/ Los Angeles Times poll has found.

The poll discovered that two-thirds of Californians say they like reading "a lot" and a fourth read at least one book a week -- including the electronic versions. Nearly a fifth of those surveyed said they owned an iPad, Kindle or other electronic reading device.

The poll included reading in its array of mostly political questions because the USC campus was to play host this weekend to the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books, which is expected to draw 150,000 book lovers.

It found that 61 percent of those surveyed spend at least three hours a week reading books, including 31 percent who spend at least seven hours and 17 percent who devote more than 10 hours a week to reading. Eighty percent said they have read at least one book in the past month and 40 percent at least three books in the last month.

"These results reinforce quantitatively what we experience anecdotally: that people continue eagerly turning to books, in all their forms, for wisdom, entertainment, and exploration," said Catherine Quinlan, dean of USC's libraries.

The poll found that more Californians said they buy books in brick-and-mortar bookstores than online, but the single most popular source of books is the library. More than a quarter of respondents said they get the majority of their books from local libraries.

State demographers, who once calculated California's population at more than 38 million, have downsized their estimates to align them with the 2010 census and now say California had 37.5 million people on Jan. 1.

The state gained 287,000 residents during 2010, the Department of Finance's demographic unit calculated, for a one-year growth rate of just 0.8 percent, one of the lowest rates in recent history. In the 1980s, for instance, the state was growing at a rate of about 2.5 percent per year.

The Department of Finance and the Census Bureau were at odds during the last decade over how many people resided in California, with the gap between their competing estimates reaching 1.5 million prior to the census. The official count last year pretty much confirmed the Census Bureau's view, although it's widely believed that the census missed many residents, particularly illegal immigrants, in Southern California cities.

Regardless, the census became the official base and the state felt compelled to adjust its own numbers to it, resulting in Friday's estimate of 37.5 million. The city-by-city and county-by-county detail indicates that even with slow overall growth, California's coastal cities are continuing to lag behind inland areas in growth rates.

Los Angeles, by far California's largest city at 3.8 million, grew by just 0.4 percent - half the state rate -- during 2010, for instance, while Riverside County's Desert Hot Springs was the state's fastest growing community at 5.9 percent.

The full report, including detail on cities and counties, can be found here.

All state public pension funds lost money in 2009 as their stock and property investments tanked, a new Census Bureau report says, but California's systems accounted for a huge share of the losses.

The state has three major pension systems - one covering state and many local workers, one for teachers and one for University of California employees - and collectively assets dropped from $476.2 billion during the 2007-08 fiscal year to $340.2 billion a year later.

That $136 billion loss of value represented 21.2 percent of all state pension fund value declines during the year, even though the state has about 12 percent of the nation's population and had less than 18 percent of the all state pension fund assets.

The new data add fuel to the already burning controversy over the long-term viability of public pensions in California, both state and local.

Republicans have demanded pension reforms as part of any state budget deal, while Democrats and their allies in public worker unions have resisted wholesale changes, contending that recent investment gains are restoring pension fund health. But recent polls also indicate that were major pension changes placed on the ballot, voters would approve them handily.

The Census Bureau's statistical report reveals that nationwide, state pension fund assets declined from $2.7 trillion in 2008 to $2 trillion in 2009. It includes a state-by-state breakdown of income, outgo, investment gains and losses and net value.

During 2009, California's funds distributed $23.6 billion to pensioners and those withdrawing from the systems. They took in $6.4 billion from employee payroll deductions and $10.7 billion from government employers while losing $105.2 billion on investments.

Most California voters still support Gov. Jerry Brown's special election to resolve the state deficit, but they send mixed messages when it comes to approving taxes on the ballot, the latest Public Policy Institute of California survey shows.

The Democratic governor is trying to convince lawmakers to place taxes on a statewide ballot at some point this year despite falling short in his initial pursuit of a June election. The PPIC poll found 56 percent of likely voters still think the special election is a good idea.

When presented with details of Brown's plan, including the fact that Brown's temporary tax increases would spare K-12 schools from cuts, 61 percent of likely voters said they favor his plan.

But when asked specifically about an increase in higher personal income taxes to pay for K-12 education, 62 percent of voters said they oppose the idea. And 61 percent said they oppose higher sales taxes for schools. Brown has proposed maintaining higher sales taxes and retroactively extending higher income taxes for five years as part of his budget solution.

"To me, it underscores generally the challenge of going to voters and asking them to raise their taxes," said PPIC President and CEO Mark Baldassare. "It would need to be very carefully placed in a package that involves a clear and consistent message about the balance between spending cuts and anything on the revenue side."

The only tax idea that won support in the PPIC poll was raising income taxes on the rich - which garnered 68 percent support. Brown and legislative leaders so far have not seriously considered that idea to solve the remaining $15.4 billion deficit, but the California Federation of Teachers is sponsoring a bill to raise taxes by 1 percent on income above $500,000 to raise an estimated $2.3 billion. That proposal is Assembly Bill 1130 by Assemblywoman Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley.

It is difficult to compare this poll's results to PPIC's previous surveys on special election taxes. Previous polls asked voters about tax extensions, a phrasing this poll did not use. Baldassare said this particular PPIC poll was an annual survey on education issues which asks each year specifically about tax increases, so its questions were not necessarily determinative of how taxes would be framed should there be a special election.

Elsewhere in the survey, likely voters gave Brown a 46 percent approval rating, higher than the 41 percent he received in March. They gave the Legislature a 14 percent approval mark, close to the 16 percent in March.

PPIC found that only 23 percent of Californians knew that both student test scores and per pupil spending ranked below the national average. More than eight in 10 (83 percent) prefer local rather than state control over schools, a preference made difficult by the fact that state government controls the purse strings in the wake of Proposition 13.

A majority of Californians (56 percent) said their local public schools do not get enough money, while 76 percent of public school parents said state budget cuts had affected their children's campus.

Most Californians said that teacher salaries should be closely (29 percent) or somewhat closely (40 percent) tied to student performance. Support for performance-based pay cut across ideologies, with 65 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans in support.

The number of criminal aliens incarcerated in California rose to 102,795 in 2009, a 17 percent increase since 2003, federal auditors reported Thursday.

This isn't cheap. Nationwide, the Government Accountability Office reports, it costs well over $1.1 billion a year for states to imprison criminal aliens -- those who committed a crime after entering the United States illegally. California, moreover, is more expensive than other states. GAO auditors estimated California spends $34,000 to incarcerate a criminal alien for one year; in Texas, it's only $12,000.

The audit, requested by Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-San Jose, will provide ammunition for states' perennial effort to secure more federal reimbursement dollars.

More than one in four of the illegal immigrants imprisoned in California are behind bars for drug offenses. Many are also repeat offenders. GAO auditors say that, based on a survey, criminal alien inmates have been arrested an average of seven different times.

The federal government gave California's state government $120.7 billion in the 2009-10 fiscal year to underwrite education, health services, welfare grants and dozens of other programs, a very detailed new report from the state auditor's office reveals.

More than a sixth of the money - $23 billion - may have been a one-time injection of funds, however, because it came from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, otherwise known as "stimulus." Those funds eased the state's budget crisis, especially in education finance, and their disappearance has exacerbated the current budget deficit.

Education was the largest single category of federal aid to the state during the year at $42 billion, followed by $38.7 billion for health and welfare services. One of the factors in the Capitol's current budget wrangle is how much the state can cut health and welfare spending without running afoul of federal requirements.

Overall, the federal payments to California involve more than 350 specific programs or "program clusters." The auditor's report, required by the federal government, not only lists the specific amounts for each but describes how the money is to be spent.

The report, however, does not delve into direct federal expenditures in California for Social Security, defense contracts, military bases, public works and other programs, which are roughly equal to the funds it sends to the state. California politicians have complained for years that the state receives a relatively small return of the tax payments that Californians and California corporations pay to Washington.

The audit report can be found here.

Support has dropped for Gov. Jerry Brown's plan for a June special election on taxes, according to a new poll released tonight by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Half of likely California voters now say a special election is a good idea, the poll found. Two-thirds of likely voters held the same view in the institute's January poll.

Support has also dipped for the proposed tax measure to avoid more budget cuts. Only 46 percent of likely voters now favor Brown's proposal, a drop of eight percentage points since January. Opinions are split along party lines, with 54 percent of Democrats backing the plan and 58 percent of Republicans opposing it. Independents are more likely to favor than oppose it, 52 percent to 36 percent.

"While many Californians still favor the approach the governor proposed in January, his plan to seek a budget solution through a June ballot has become a more difficult task to achieve," Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, said in a statement.

Likely voters are divided on how to deal with the budget gap -- 41 percent want a mix of cuts and taxes, 40 percent prefer mostly spending cuts, 11 percent want mostly tax increases, and 3 percent think it's OK to borrow and run a budget deficit.

When asked specifically about Brown's proposal, Californians are slightly more likely to favor it than oppose it.

Most of those surveyed think the budget deficit is a big problem for the state. Even so, more than half said that jobs and the economy are the state's biggest issues. The deficit came in a distant second.

PPIC surveyed 2,000 California adults March 8-15. Among the 935 likely voters in that group, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Find the wide-ranging survey here.

As legislators prepare for a vote on a proposal to close a projected $26 billion deficit, one group is calling on the state to provide the public with more information about its spending.

California's efforts to provide transparency in government and spending received a grade of D-plus in a report released today by the California Public Interest Research Group. The state came in at No. 31 in the left-leaning public interest lobbying group's annual ranking of all 50 states.

"If Californians look hard enough at the budget voted on today they'll notice some serious holes in their ability to follow the money," CALPIRG's Pedro Morillas said in a statement. "Billions of dollars in tax breaks and economic development subsidies are spent every year with no disclosure to the public of who gets them or how much they get."

CALPIRG called on California to create a more vibrant website dedicated to transparency and government spending.

One upside for fans of sunlight in state government? California's 2011 grade -- 62 on a 100-point scale -- was nine points higher than last year's score.

Click here to read the full report.

Last week's release of detailed data on the 2010 census sets the stage for the new Citizens Redistricting Commission to draw new maps for 120 legislative districts, 53 congressional districts and four Board of Equalization districts to equalize their populations.

The biggest changes will come in districts with the greatest deviation from the ideal populations as calculated on the census total for California and political number-crunchers have already developed spreadsheets laying out the deviations.

In general, urban coastal districts are underpopulated and inland suburban and rural districts are overpopulated, which should lead to a shift of legislative and congressional districts from the coastal counties to inland counties.

One set of spreadsheets comes from the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College. Find it here.

Both major political parties lost a bit of their voter registration shares as the ranks of California's political independents continued to expand, a new report from the secretary of state's office showed Friday.

The report says that 17.2 million Californians are registered to vote, down about 150,000 from the 2009 off-year report. The percentage of age- and citizenship-eligible Californians (23.7 million) who are registered also dropped to 72.8 percent.

Democrats' share of the electorate declined from 44.5 percent in 2009 to 44 percent, while Republicans dropped from 31.1 percent to 30.9 percent and declined-to-state independents continued to increase, from 20 percent in 2009 to 20.4 percent now.

The report also details registered voters by county and legislative and congressional district, but the latter two are almost meaningless because the districts will be altered by the state's new redistricting commission -- or perhaps the courts if the commission falters -- in time for the 2012 elections.

The office issues this biennial report in the early months of what has traditionally been a non-election year. With its spate of special elections, however, the state rarely has a non-election year anymore, with another one staged in June on tax extensions if Gov. Jerry Brown has his way.

The full report is available here.

California's "well-being index" is just about average in a new nationwide survey measuring levels of healthy and happy living by the Gallup polling organization - but residents of the San Francisco Peninsula score the highest of any region in the nation.

It was the third year in a row that residents of California's affluent and bucolic 14th Congressional District scored the highest in the survey, which measured levels of diabetes, obesity, consumption of fresh produce, physical exercise, optimism and health insurance coverage.

Gallup surveyed more than 350,000 people nationwide to create its index and rankings by state and locality. The 14th Congressional District includes Redwood City, Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Mountain View and Los Altos and is represented by Democrat Anna Eshoo.

The nation's overall well-being index is 66.8 while California's score - 18th highest - is 67. Hawaii scored the highest at 71 while West Virginia is the lowest at 61.7. The full Gallup report can be found here.

As California's annual political wrangle over the state budget heats up, state Controller John Chiang's office has created an easy-to-read Internet primer on the state's finances.

Graphs, charts and text explain the sources of the state's revenues and the ways they are spent, both currently and in the last decade.

"I believe that it is important for Californians to be able to easily find out where the state gets its money and how your tax dollars are spent," Chiang says in an introduction to State Finances 101, as his website is called. "I hope this information will help you better understand the basics of California's finances, where the bulk of taxes are spent, and the challenges we face during these difficult economic times."

The site can be found here. Anyone wanting details of Gov. Jerry Brown's budget can find them here. And true fiscal masochists can find the Democrats' current version of the budget here. After you do all that, you're ready to check out The Bee's budget balancer.

The U.S. Census Bureau today released detailed data on California that will be used by the state's new independent redistricting commission to draw new legislative, congressional and Board of Equalization districts for the 2012 elections.

The state's new official 2010 population, 37,263,308, was released in December and is a 10 percent gain over 2000. But details -- including census tract, city and county breakdowns, as well as those of income, ethnicity and other factors -- were not released until today.

The Citizens Redistricting Commission has until August to adopt new districts, replacing those that the Legislature drew in 2001. Widespread criticism of the legislative plan that it was a bipartisan gerrymander that ignored demographic changes, led to the ballot measure that shifted the responsibility to a 14-member commission that was chosen, partially by lot, from more than 30,000 applicants. The commission is composed of five Democrats, five Republicans and four independents. A majority of each group was agree to a final plan, which is subject to court challenges.

The new census data are available here.

Californians' median income, as reported on income tax returns, dropped sharply in 2009 as the recession continued to plague the state, it was reported Thursday.

The Franchise Tax Board said the statewide median income dropped 5.1 percent to $34,079 on 2009 returns while the median on joint returns dropped 5.7 percent to $65,025.

As usual, four Bay Area counties -- Contra Costa, Marin, San Mateo and Santa Clara -- reported the highest median incomes, with No. 1 Marin being the only county with a median that topped $100,000 for joint returns.

At the other end of the affluence scale, Imperial County, in the state's southeastern corner, had the lowest median of $22,841 for all returns. The lowest-income counties were, like Imperial, clustered in the state's agricultural and mountain regions. Tulare County was second lowest for all returns at $25,302.

Median income is the point at which one-half of the income reported on tax returns is above and one-half is below the midpoint of the range of values.

The FTB said California taxpayers filed 15.3 million 2009 state income tax returns reporting $1.08 trillion in adjusted gross income, a 2.9 percent decrease from 2008 figures.

California has the nation's largest unfunded public worker pension liability -- as much as $370 billion -- a new state-by-state comparison by a conservative state government think tank declares.

But in relative terms, the state's pension gap is by no means the nation's largest.

The new paper from Washington, D.C.-based State Budget Solutions adds more fuel to the already raging controversy over public worker pensions in California and other states. Republican legislators in California have hinted that pension reform may be the price for supporting Gov. Jerry Brown's budget plan, and just last week, the state's Little Hoover Commission called for a massive overhaul of the system for state and local government workers.

State Budget Solutions merged three academic studies of state pension funds to generate its comparison chart. They came from the Pew Center on the States, the American Enterprise Institute and the Journal of Finance.

California's economic image suffered another blow Wednesday when the U.S. Chamber of Commerce rated it in the bottom tier of states in the friendliness of its laws to business investment.

California was placed in the bottom of three tiers in a nationwide review of state business laws for the chamber by Seyfarth Shaw LLP, a prominent employment and labor law firm.

The chamber noted that California's and Massachusetts' laws are so unique that the law firm has published employers' handbooks just for those states.

"California has a large and diverse economy environment for new job creation," the chamber's report says. "The state is known for its persistent budget woes and debt, high taxes, and complex employment laws and regulations. The unemployment rate in California was 12.4 percent in late 2010, well above the national average."

The report listed specific factors in the state's "poor" ranking along with Massachusetts, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. They include: "hostility towards non-competition agreements," complex and "elaborate" wage and hour laws, anti-discrimination laws that go beyond those of the federal government, tight privacy laws, personal leave laws that go beyond the feds and a ban on "use it or lose it" vacation rules.

California's 1,700-judge judicial system has accomplished something that appears, at least superficially, to be mathematically impossible -- increasing the representation of every ethnic and racial group wearing judicial robes.

The number that stands out the most in the Judicial Council's report for this year is that its judiciary appears to be getting whiter, even while California's white population has been declining and whites are now scarcely 40 percent of the state's residents.

The Judicial Council report reveals that white trial and appellate judges now account for 72.3 percent of the judiciary, down fractionally from 2010 but up from 70.1 percent in 2006. At the same time, however, the report shows gains by every other ethnic and racial group, as well as by women, who are now nearly 31 percent of judges, including a brand-new chief justice, Tani Cantil-Sakauye.

American Indian (or Alaska Native), African American, Latino, Asian and Pacific Islander percentages have also climbed since 2006, which would seem to defy mathematical logic. Court officials attributed it to changes in the number of judges responding to the survey or claiming more than one racial background.

The full report can be found here.

California, which is still mired in its worst recession since the Great Depression, has the nation's third-worst job market, according to a new nationwide survey by the Gallup polling organization.

Only Nevada and New Jersey are in worse shape when it comes to creating new jobs, Gallup said, adding, "Despite an overall improvement in job market conditions, five states in the bottom 10 during 2008 and 2009 were also on the list in 2010: Nevada, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and California. These states continue to suffer from the housing crash and financial debacle that was part of the recession."

Energy- and commodity-producing states such as North and South Dakota and Alaska, as well as Washington, D.C., have the best job creation climate these days, Gallup found, while perpetually depressed Michigan showed the most improvement in 2010, thanks to the revival of its auto industry. Other industry-heavy states also showed sharp improvements.

The results came from interviews with nearly 200,000 adults across the nation, asking them about whether their employers are expanding or contracting payrolls. Overall, positive job creation responses outweighed negative ones by 7 percentage points.

The Gallup report is another dose of bad economic news for California, which has shed well over a million jobs since the recession began, has a stubborn 12-plus percent unemployment rate, owes the federal government more than $10 billion for unemployment insurance loans, and faces a state budget deficit or more than $25 billion.

The full Gallup report is available here.

Californians' tax burden declined slightly in 2009, even though then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature temporarily boosted income, sales and car taxes that year, according to a new compilation by the Washington-based Tax Foundation.

The state-local tax burden declined from 11 percent of personal income in 2008 to 10.6 percent in 2009, largely due to declining revenues from a recession-battered economy. But it was still high enough to maintain California's rank as having the nation's sixth highest level of taxation.

That ranking provides political ammunition to opponents of Gov. Jerry Brown's plan to ask voters to extend the taxes, more than $11 billion a year, for another five years. He says the money is needed to fill about half of the state's chronic budget deficit.

New Jersey had the highest tax burden at 12.2 percent, followed by New York at 12.1 percent. Connecticut, Wisconsin and Rhode Island also were higher than California. Alaska was lowest at 6.3 percent.

California's per capita personal income in 2009 was $46,366 and Californians' per capita tax bill was $4,910, which means state and local governments collected something in excess of $170 billion in taxes of all kinds.

The full Tax Foundation report on state and local taxation can be found here.

California has sharply increased the number of eighth-graders who take beginning algebra since 2003, but the results of that expansion are decidedly mixed, according to a new study by EdSource, a Mountain View-based educational policy think tank.

The number of eighth-graders taking Algebra I has jumped by 80 percent, with the increases especially high among low-income, African American and Latino youngsters.

"However, placing all eighth-graders into Algebra I, regardless of their preparation, sets up many students to fail," EdSource said in a summary of the study's findings. "In the EdSource study sample, almost one-third of students who scored at the two lowest levels on the state's 7th grade math test were placed into Algebra I in eighth grade - with almost no chance for success. Schools serving predominantly low-income students were more likely to make these types of placement decisions than schools serving predominantly middle-income students."

In the main, the study found, students who had received preparatory instruction fared the best, while those who hadn't tended to perform poorly on academic tests.

"California's gains in Algebra I course taking and success have raised expectations, particularly for low-income and minority students" said Matt Rosin, a senior research associate at EdSource and a member of the study team. "California's middle grades educators should continue to widen appropriate access to challenging mathematics coursework. But in doing so, they need to build on a strong math foundation for students in earlier grades and base their placement decisions on a careful understanding of students' preparedness."

The full study can be obtained from EdSource here.

California paid out a record $22.9 billion in unemployment insurance benefits to 1.7 million jobless workers in 2010, the Employment Development Department reported today.

The payout, four to fives times the normal yearly UI benefits, averaged $90 million every business day, 41.2 million checks in all, and reflected the severe recession that drove the state's unemployment rate to over 12 percent, the highest rate recorded since the early 1940s.

"The numbers are staggering and the need undeniable," said Pam Harris, EDD's chief deputy director. "Unemployment benefits are a lifeline that keeps these families and their communities afloat in these turbulent times. We have worked tirelessly to reach out to those in need, and to help them along the road to economic recovery."

The state's Unemployment Insurance Fund ran out of money many months ago and the payments, which go to about two-thirds of the state's jobless workers, have been supported ever since by billions of dollars in loans from the federal government.

The UI Fund is now nearly $10 billion in the red. President Barack Obama said recently he favors allowing states to repay the UI loans - California's is by far the largest - without interest. But eventually, UI taxes paid by employers would be increased to repay the principal.

Los Angeles Iconic Freeway Fued.JPGEach member of the Los Angeles City Council costs the city's taxpayers more than those of any other major city governing body, according to a new study by the Pew Charitable Trusts.

The L.A. council's $1.7 million annual cost per member is nearly three times the median council cost in major cities. One reason is that the L.A. council's members are paid more than any others, $178,789 a year. San Antonio has the nation's lowest-paid big city council members, just $1,400 per year.

At the other extreme, Los Angeles has the smallest big city council, in comparison to population, with an average of 255,500 constituents per member. Pittsburgh, at the other hand, has one council member for every 34,600 residents. In absolute numbers, San Diego has the nation's smallest big city council with just eight members.

Los Angeles also has the lowest relative number of women on its council and is one of only three big city councils that supply members with cars.

The full study, called "City Councils in Philadelphia and Other Major Cities," can be found here.

PHOTO CREDIT: Traffic flows along the Pasadena Freeway, Friday, May 14, 2010, in Los Angeles, offering a view of the downtown skyline. AP Photo/ Kim Johnson Flodin

LS MERMAIDS 17 dive bar.JPGGov. Jerry Brown's proposed 2011-12 budget has many controversial aspects, but one of the most contentious is his call for eliminating 425 local redevelopment agencies and redirecting about a third of their property tax revenues into other state and local services.

Last week, nine big city mayors called on Brown to abandon his proposal, claiming that redevelopment is central to economic development. But Brown insists that supporting schools and other public programs is a more important use of the funds.

Underlying the political exchanges is a phenomenal growth in redevelopment agency activity -- especially their diversion of property tax money into their own activities. By law redevelopment agencies can retain property taxes on increased development within redevelopment projects, although they must share some of it with other local governments and schools under reform legislation enacted in the 1990s.

Each year, the state controller's office publishes a thick report on the activities of redevelopment agencies, most of which are operated by city governments. And the latest report, covering the 2008-09 fiscal year, details the extent of their finances.

California has been given an "A-plus" grade for transparency -- giving its residents access to records and other aspects of state government -- but the state's counties earn only a "C," says Sunshine Review, an organization based in Alexandria, Va., that promotes open government.

Michael Barnhart, the organization's president, said, "California has one of the most transparent state governments in the country, offering an innovative government website and open meeting and record laws for its citizens, but no matter how good the grades, Sunshine Review will always be setting a new standard of transparency for governments to live up to."

Sunshine Review's state-by-state grades can be found here.

KRG_SMOKING_0047.JPGThe American Lung Association praises California for its laws barring smoking in public places, but otherwise gives the state low marks in its annual state-by-state survey of anti-smoking efforts.

California - like all but a few other states - was given an "F" for its spending on anti-smoking campaigns. The Centers for Disease Control says California should be spending nearly $442 million a year, but it spends only $89.7 million, all of which comes from cigarette taxes and federal allocations.

It also gets a "D" for its relatively low level of cigarette taxes, 87 cents a pack, and another "F" for its laws and regulations compelling health insurers to cover smoking cessation treatment. Nationwide, cigarette taxes range from $4.35 a pack in New York to 17 cents in Missouri.

The lung association is one of the sponsors of a ballot measure -- which could face voters as early as June -- that would would raise the tobacco tax by $1 a pack to fund cancer research and smoking prevention programs.

Overall, the ALA says, California has 235 annual deaths per 100,000 population attributed to smoking, roughly in the middle of the states. The lowest rate of smoking deaths is in Utah, 138.3, and the highest is in adjacent Nevada, 343.7.

The full Lung Association report may be found here.

PHOTO CREDIT:Carmen Werle smokes a cigarette on her lunch break outside the Department of Justice in Sacramento on Wednesday, June 23, 2010. Kyle Grantham/Sacramento Bee.

Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn on Thursday signed a package of tax increases, including a 67 percent jump in the state's income tax rate, that will raise about $7 billion a year and close part of that state's whopping budget deficit.

Meanwhile, California Gov. Jerry Brown has proposed a package of tax increases, loophole closures and extensions that would raise approximately $11 billion a year and cover about half of the state's projected annual budget deficit.

So how do the two packages compare?

The Illinois tax package would cover less than half of that state's budget deficit and even with a two-thirds increase, the Illinois personal income tax rate will be just 5 percent, roughly half of California's top bracket rate.

In terms of impact, however, the Illinois tax hike is much larger. Overall, it amounts to roughly $2,000 per family of four (Illinois has 13 million residents), while Michael Cohen, California's deputy director of finance, told legislators this week that the Brown package would translate into about $1,000 per California family.

Gov. Jerry Brown and state legislators are struggling to close a hole in the state budget of $25-plus billion, but while it's a big number, it's just a fraction of the $254.3 billion that the state spent in the fiscal year that ended in mid-2009, according to a new Census Bureau report on state finances.

California, the nation's most populous state, was easily the highest-spending state that fiscal period, the report shows. Its $254.3 billion in spending was nearly 14 percent of the $1.8 trillion spent by all 50 states, nearly $100 billion more than No. 2 New York and more than twice as much as Texas.

The state general fund, which is the focus of the deficit debate, accounts for just a third of total state spending, which includes special funds such as those devoted to highways, and federal funds.

Federal funds accounted for about $60 billion of the state's spending while personal income taxes, at $44.4 billion, were the state's largest source of tax revenue. Education was the largest single category of state spending at $73.2 billion with welfare second at $63.6 billion.

The full report can be found here.

Editor's note: This post was changed to reflect that the report's numbers are based on the states' fiscal years that ended between July 1, 2008, and June 30, 2009.

The team over at the Legislative Analyst's Office has released a nifty "Cal Facts" pamphlet that sums up state government in 64 pages full of charts and data.

It's well worth reading for anyone interested in state policy. Or for anyone who has a role in shaping state policy, which, given the multitude of ballot measures these days, means any voter.

In two handy pages -- 12 and 13 -- the Analyst's Office sums up all of the state ballot measures since Proposition 13 that have imposed new restrictions on state and local budgeting. Page 28 shows the cost per government program participant -- $46,700 per adult inmate and $208,766 per person in youth corrections.

California's relatively small and slow-growing black population is experiencing far less residential segregation that it did in years past, but its rapidly growing Latino and Asian American populations are experiencing more, a new nationwide study of housing patterns indicates.

The study, "Racial and Ethnic Separation in the Neighborhoods: Progress at a Standstill," was written by John R. Logan of Brown University and Brian J. Stults of Florida State University, was based on data from decennial censuses and other surveys by the Census Bureau.

The authors devised a scale of zero to 100 to rate segregation, based on several factors found in the census data, and applied it to virtually every community of 10,000 population or more, but concentrating on the larger metropolitan areas. They took readings for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010.

Among metropolitan areas with the largest black populations, for example, the Los Angeles-Long Beach region had a black-white segregation index of 81.2 in 1980, but it's fallen steadily to a current 69.4, 12th highest in the nation (New York City is highest at 81.8, slightly higher than it was in 1980).

Oakland, another California city with a relatively high black population, saw its index drop from 74.3 in 1980 to a current 61.1. Riverside-San Bernardino, 53.6 in 1980, is 46.2 now, one of the lowest levels of segregation in the nation.

The Legislature's sharp ideological division is reflected in a scorecard on 14 key issues in the last legislative session from the Consumer Federation of California.

While 11 of 25 Democratic senators and 19 of the Assembly's 50 Democrats scored 100 percent in the organization's rankings, 23 of 29 Assembly Republicans scored under 11 percent, 16 of them zero, and nine of 15 Republican senators were under 15 percent, four at zero. The scorecard ranks lawmakers from last session, including members who are no longer in elected office.

"Not all Democratic lawmakers received high marks," the federation's spokesman, Zack Kaldveer, said. "An informal caucus of corporate-friendly Democrats often joined their Republican colleagues to kill consumer protection bills - particularly those targeted by corporate interests and their armies of lobbyists."

The Consumer Federation's 14 issues include a number of bills that the state Chamber of Commerce labels as "job killers" and the business group's rankings are a reverse mirror image, giving Republicans and a few Democrats high marks for killing business-opposed measures.

The full Consumer Federation scorecard can be found here.

As recession continues to grip the state, the number of Californians without health insurance, especially coverage provided by employers, has continued to climb, according to a new study by the California Healthcare Foundation.

Over the last two decades, the foundation says, Californians under 65 with employer-provided health insurance have dropped from 65 percent to 52 percent and "while increases in Medicaid (Medi-Cal) coverage partially offset this decline, more than 20 percent of Californians remained uninsured."

The state has the nation's highest number of uninsured, 6.8 million and one of its highest rates. The foundation, in its annual California Health Care Almanac, says 60 percent of Californians without health coverage are Latinos, and more than half of uninsured children are in families headed by full-time workers.

The complete report is available here.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says that emissions of toxic chemicals from facilities in California dropped 14 percent in 2009, but it was an uneven decline.

While releases of toxics into the air and water dropped sharply, those into underground strata jumped nearly three-fold.

In 2009, the EPA said, 1,286 California facilities emitted 38 million pounds of toxic chemicals and nearly 40 percent of them came from Chemical Waste Management's toxic waste disposal site just off Interstate 5 near Kettleman City in Kings County, which just last month was fined by the EPA for improper management of PCBs.

Residents of the area have long complained about pollution from the facility and studies have been conducted about alleged high rates of birth defects in the rural agricultural area, but nothing conclusive has been demonstrated.

The data on toxic releases come from EPA's Toxic Release Inventory, which is based on mandatory reports to the agency from disposal sites, factories and other facilities.

"These annual reports arm citizens and local governments with information about toxics that could pose potential hazards in their area," said Jared Blumenfeld, EPA regional administrator. "Federal law ensures that all communities have a right-to-know so they can make informed decisions to reduce chemical use and plan for emergency responses."

The full EPA report on California, which includes a list of the largest sites of toxic emissions and details on what kind of toxics are being released, can be found here.

California -- particularly two of its counties, Los Angeles and Humboldt -- has been declared the nation's second worst "judicial hellhole" by the American Tort Reform Association, a business-backed group that campaigns against what it says are excesses of the civil court system.

The ATRA labeled Philadelphia as having the worst climate for personal injury lawsuits and California second, saying, "California courts are known for wacky consumer class actions, extortionate disability access claims against small businesses, and expansive liability.

"Awards in Los Angeles are particularly generous. This year's $208.8 million verdict for a single asbestos claimant, the largest such award in California history, is a prime example. Humboldt County, receiving its first mention in the report, hosted a $677 million class action verdict against a nursing home provider for occasionally falling below the staffing levels required by state regulations.

"Unfair practices during the trial led Forbes to call the case 'a tort reform advocate's dream -- meaning a defendant's worst nightmare.' And a California Supreme Court ruling that permits private personal injury lawyers to bring enforcement actions on behalf of the state, even though the lawyers' interest in maximizing their fees may not serve justice in the public interest, also bodes poorly for the future."

The report was issued just as California's version of tort wars may be heating up after years of inactivity. Consumer Attorneys of California, which lobbies for plaintiffs' attorneys, and the California Civil Justice Association, the state version of the ATRA, have battled for years over rules governing personal injury lawsuits but for the past two decades the war has been mostly verbal.

California's state and local governments provide billions of dollars in subsidies to corporations, both directly and through tax loopholes, but does a poor job of revealing recipients, according to Good Jobs First, a Washington-based coalition of liberal organizations.

The group gives California a D-minus grade on disclosure of corporate subsidies, saying that not knowing who gets them makes it unduly difficult to judge how effective they have been in meeting their stated goals of improving economic activity and job creation.

"California can't afford spending big dollars on subsidies without tracking where they go and whether they deliver bang for the buck," said Emily Rusch, director of the California Public Interest Research Group, an affiliate of Good Jobs First. "When public dollars go to private businesses, we need the highest level of transparency."

Corruption-prone Illinois unexpectedly tops all other states in subsidy transparency with a B grade, while California's D-minus rates 29th place, tied with Maine.

Intense partisan battles for the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat and several high-profile ballot measures drove California's voter turnout last month to its highest level for such an election since 1994, Secretary of State Debra Bowen says.

Bowen said 10.3 million Californians cast ballots in the Nov. 2 election, 59.6 percent of those registered to vote, the highest for a non-presidential election since 1994, when 60.5 percent voted. But even though relatively high, this year's turnout was scarcely 43 percent of the 23.6 million Californians who are citizens over 18 years old and therefore could have registered and voted.

The turnout was about five percentage points, or 800,000 voters, higher than the pre-election estimate made by the Field Institute, the state's leading polling organization. The secretary of state's office used to make pre-election predictions, but Bowen stopped the practice when she took office.

"The race for governor and some controversial propositions drew the highest number of people to the polls in five gubernatorial elections," said Bowen. "I applaud the work of each county elections official and the more than 100,000 elections workers and volunteers who helped to make voting as easy as possible for every eligible Californian."

In affluent, mostly white Marin County, about one-fourth of one percent of its adult population will be sentenced to prison each year, 261.1 felons per 100,000 population.

In relatively poor, largely Latino Kings County, the imprisonment rate is six times as high, about 1.5 percent of its adult population, 1,546.4 per 100,000. The statewide rate is 684.1.

Marin and Kings represent the extremes of incarceration rates among the state's 58 counties, as revealed in a massive compilation of statistics by the San Francisco-based Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice.

CJCJ has established an interactive map of California that allows access to a wide variety of recent data, including crime rates, imprisonment rates and breakdowns by ethnicity.

Kings and other poor, rural counties tend to have much higher incarceration rates than more affluent suburban counties, and while some of the wide variation can be explained by crime rates, CJCJ maintains that local prosecution and sentencing policies have a major influence.

Marin's reported crime rate, 1,384.6 per 100,000 population, is actually a bit higher than Kings' rate, 1,327.7.

The interactive map can be found here.

California will end the decade with nearly 39 million residents, up nearly five million from the 2000 census, the state Department of Finance said Thursday.

As of July 1, the state had 38.8 million in population, which is 350,000 more than it had a year earlier, but less than a 1 percent growth rate, the department said.

The state's demographers, however, don't have the last word on the subject. Their estimate, based on births, deaths and other data, is about 1.5 million more than the Census Bureau's last pre-census projection, and the 2010 census numbers will be released soon.

The census will settle the dispute - which centers on different estimates of migration from California to other states during the decade - and if California's number is closer to the Census Bureau estimate, it could cost the state one or even two of its 53 congressional seats.

The Department of Finance report says that during the 2009-10 period, there were 525,000 births and 241,000 deaths, which accounted for 81 percent of the growth, and net migration of 66,000 made up the other 19 percent.

While overall growth was just under 1 percent, there were wide county-to-county variations. Generally, the state's inland counties grew markedly faster than those along the coast, with Riverside and Placer the fastest growing at over 1.5 percent. Tiny Sierra and Plumas counties actually lost population. Twenty-four counties grew faster than the state as a whole and 34 grew more slowly. Huge Los Angeles County, however, had the largest numerical gain of 64,125.

The complete report can be accessed here.

Despite its severe recession, California's economy is still the eighth largest in the world, the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy reported Thursday in an analysis of new national data.

The data came from the U.S. Department of Commerce, pegging California's economic output in 2009 at $1.9 trillion, somewhat higher than previous estimates. The Palo Alto-based CCSCE merged the Commerce Department data with the World Bank's global economic output estimates to conclude that California remains in eighth place, which it has occupied for several years after briefly moving up in the global economic rankings to fifth or sixth place.

California generated almost as much economic output as the No. 2 and No. 3 states, Texas ($1.1 trillion) and New York ($1.1 trillion), combined. And were it a nation, the state's economy would be surpassed only by the United States ($14.1 trillion), Japan ($5.1 trillion), China ($5 trillion), Germany ($3.3 trillion), France ($2.6 trillion), Great Britain ($2.2 trillion), and Italy ($2.1 trillion).

California is a very diverse state, but members of every demographic, geographic and ideological subgroup in the state agree on one thing: They don't approve of outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's performance.

That's one of the results of an extensive post-election survey of voters by the Public Policy Institute of California.

The PPIC survey found that overall, Schwarzenegger leaves office with a 32 percent approval rating among November's voters, and results were remarkably consistent among all subgroups. For instance, 68 percent of Democrats disapproved of Schwarzenegger's performance, along with 55 percent of the governor's fellow Republicans and 55 percent of independents. His approval didn't hit 40 percent in any subgroup.

Among other results of PPIC's survey, which involved 2,003 voters:

--Proposition 19, which would have legalized marijuana, drew the most voter interest. The measure lost narrowly and PPIC found that Republicans, Latinos, whites, women and older voters were most opposed.

--The second most-important ballot measure to voters was Proposition 23, which would have suspended the state's anti-greenhouse gas program - a major Schwarzenegger initiative - until unemployment dropped sharply and lost by a landslide vote. PPIC found a sharp partisan divide with more than half of Republicans supporting the measure but huge majorities of Democrats and independents opposing it.

--The nine measures on the November ballot continued a decades-long trend of placing major issues before voters and while past surveys have indicated voters like having that power, the new PPIC poll found that two-thirds of them say the 2010 initiatives were too confusing. And for the first time in the history of the organization's polling, fewer than half of those polled said they had confidence in the ability of voters to make public policy decisions on the ballot.

--Schwarzenegger is not the only political figure to get low marks from voters. Just 13 percent of those polled approve of how he and the Legislature have dealt with issues and just 12 percent approve of the Legislature. Even President Barack Obama, who won by a large margin in California two years ago, is feeling the heat with just a 53 percent approval rating. Congress, like the Legislature, is less popular at 21 percent. And despite the state's Democratic bent, 43 percent of California voters say it's a good thing that Republicans have recaptured control of the House.

--Strong margins among independent voters helped Democrat Jerry Brown win the governorship and Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer win re-election against well-financed Republican rivals, along with big margins among Latinos and women.

The full PPIC poll results can be found here.

Nearly a half-million unemployed Californians would be affected if Congress fails to extend unemployment benefits of up to 99 weeks, the state Department of Employment said Tuesday.

The more precise number is 454,000, about a fifth of California's estimated 2.4 million unemployed workers, who could see benefits return to a maximum of 26 weeks unless Congress doesn't act soon.

The issue is now before Congress in its post-election, lame-duck session but Republicans, who soon will take over the House, blocked the extension, saying they want other spending cuts to offset the cost. Democrats have accused Republicans of playing politics with the lives of jobless workers.

"We at EDD understand how critical unemployment benefits can be to unemployed
workers, their families, and the businesses in their communities. New limits on benefits,
especially just before the holidays, can be very difficult," said EDD's chief deputy,director, Pam Harris. "That's why we are working to keep our customers informed
of developments concerning federal unemployment extension benefits."

EDD said, based on historical data, that up to 150,000 of the 454,000 total are
currently certifying for benefits as part of the separate extension of benefits known as the
FED-ED extension.

The department will soon send notices to those 150,000 that their benefits may need if the federally financed extension lapses.

The Stanford University research team that shocked Sacramento this year by declaring that the state's three pension systems are more than $400 billion underfunded has struck again, saying local government pension systems are nearly $200 billion short.

The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research team, headed by former Democratic Assemblyman Joe Nation, applied the same standard to the local funds as it did to the state's three large systems - a risk-free "discount rate" of about 4 percent on future pension fund earnings.

All public funds now use rates that are nearly twice as large, but that understates future liability, say critics, who include outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. By using unrealistically high assumptions of future earnings, Schwarzenegger and other critics say, the funds are misleading employees and government policy makers about the future costs of pensions. The most recent contracts negotiated with state employee unions by the Schwarzenegger administration included lowering pension guarantees to future employees.

Defenders of the current discount rates counter that they reflect past earnings and therefore are reasonable assumptions of what will happen in the future.

"This report confirms that all levels of government have been understating the pension debts owed by taxpayers to government workers, and that the pension reforms we achieved at the state level must be extended to all pension systems throughout the state," Schwarzenegger said in a statement. "Taxpayers are already suffering the consequences of billions of dollars in undisclosed pension debt, which is crowding out vital programs and services, and they are entitled to an honest accounting of the pension promises made by their elected officials. As the parties who bear all the consequences of undisclosed and unfunded pension debt, they deserve the truth. I encourage local elected officials and leaders to demand pension reform and full disclosure."

The latest Stanford study delved into the independent systems that are typically used by the most populous cities, counties and special districts. Smaller governments typically use the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS), which covers state employees, for their pension programs.

While the local systems officially contend that their liabilities are 75 percent-plus covered by current assets and assumptions of future contributions and earnings, the Stanford team, using a 4 percent discount rate, drops those numbers by roughly half - some into the 35 percent range and only a couple over 50 percent.

In dollar terms, the unfunded liabilities in the report range as high as $39.8 billion in the case of the Los Angeles County Employees' Retirement Association and $34.4 billion for the City of Los Angeles' systems. In percentage terms, the East Bay Municipal Utility District has the highest unfunded liability, nearly 65 percent of obligations.

The Stanford report also lists a mid-line range, based on a 6 percent discount rate, and that drops total unfunded liability of the local systems from $195.2 billion to $89 billion, still five times as high as their official unfunded gap of $17.5 billion.

The full Stanford pension report is available here.

California's four-decade-long crackdown on smog-causing automotive emissions has paid off in sharp reductions in air pollution, a new report by the Environment California Research and Policy Center concludes.

Since 1980, the Los Angeles-based center says, peak smog levels have dropped by 70 percent in the Los Angeles area, 50 per cent in the San Diego area and in the Sacramento Valley, 40 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area, and 33 percent in the San Joaquin Valley.

"California's efforts to reduce air pollution from cars and trucks have made the state's air cleaner than it has been in decades - and Californians are healthier as a result," said Bernadette Del Chiaro, co-author of the report. "The technologies found on new car lots today were practically unimaginable even 20 years ago, much less 40 years ago. Yet thanks to strong policies, California has pushed the auto industry to innovate and engineer a greener, cleaner car."

The report says that emissions of smog-forming pollutants from cars and trucks have dropped by 85 percent since 1975, even though the number of vehicles and the amount of vehicular travel are much higher. Current automobile models emit just one percent of the pollution that vehicles of the earlier era generated.

The full report, "Clean Cars in California: Four Decades of Progress in the Unfinished Battle to Clean Up Our Air," can be found here.

Although the highly controversial overhaul of workers' compensation in 2004 sharply cut employers' costs in California, the state still has the nation's fifth most costly system of support and medical care for employees with job-related illnesses and injuries, according to a new survey.

The workers' compensation overhaul, which tightened eligibility for benefits and imposed new cost controls on medical care, is one of outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's most prized achievements, but unions, medical care providers and attorneys who specialize in workers' comp cases have tried to undo it for years.

More recently, workers' comp insurers have joined the demand for change, saying they are losing money because Schwarzenegger and outgoing Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner have sidelined major increases in premiums recommended by the Workers' Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau, saying they would raise employers' overhead and retard recovery from recession. The quasi-public State Compensation Insurance Fund, however, has raised its premiums sharply.

Critics of the system are gearing up for a major drive to modify it after Republican Schwarzenegger gives way to Democrat Jerry Brown in January. But the new cost survey, conducted by the Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services, gives employers some ammunition to resist change.

The Oregon agency surveys workers' comp costs in all states and develops an index of insurance costs. The newest one, issued last month, finds that California, with the ninth highest costs in 2009, has jumped to No. 5 with an average of $2.68 per $100 of payroll, 31 percent above the national average. Only Montana, Alaska, Illinois and Oklahoma are higher. North Dakota has the lowest cost, just $1.02 per $100, half the national average of $2.04.

The full Oregon report can be found here.

Last month, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed a $6.8 million appropriation to continue the state's conversion of public school data to an electronic system called the California Longitudinal Pupil Achievement Data System (CALPADS), drawing the ire of state schools Supt. Jack O'Connell.

Schwarzenegger cited delays and costs in CALPADS and urged that its implementation be shifted from O'Connell's department to another agency. O'Connell, in turn, released an evaluation by Sabot Technologies, the CALPADS outside overseer, saying that the "places all CALPADS expenditures to date at risk by fundamentally risking the success of the system" and that shifting it to another agency is "highly problematic and will likely be paramount to setting that agency up for failure."

O'Connell fired another salvo Friday in the dispute between two officials who will leave office in January, releasing 2009-10 enrollment data that, he said, was collected for the first time using CALPADS.

"California districts are successfully using CALPADS to submit information that is vital in helping us develop effective policies and programs that serve the needs of our students," said O'Connell. "The student-level enrollment data in CALPADS will help districts keep track of students who otherwise might have fallen through the cracks and dropped out. Using CALPADS will also ensure that students in our highly mobile state will get access to courses and services they need when they change schools or districts."

The new data, accessible through the Internet, indicate that California's K-12 public schools continued to see a slight year-to-year enrollment decline with 6.2 million students enrolled during the last school year. Also, the data show that more than half of those students are Latino.

"The governor's veto of funding for CALPADS is a travesty," O'Connell continued. "CALPADS is an important tool for improving student achievement and our public education system. I am working with state leaders on a proposal to restore funding for CALPADS as soon as the Legislature reconvenes so that years of work and millions invested in developing this data system won't be wasted."

Information on a variety of student-related matters, including achievement scores, can be found here while a county-by-county breakdown of enrollment by ethnicity is available here.

While other indices of California's economy continue to be weak, the state's exports are continuing to recover, Beacon Economics reported Wednesday.

The private economic consulting firm, in an analysis of new trade data from the Department of Commerce, said that the $12.32 billion in goods that California businesses shipped to other countries in September was 19 percent higher than in September, 2009. And it was the 11th straight month of year-to-year increases.

"To be sure, September 2009 did not set a very high bar for comparison purposes, but the year-to-year increase was still remarkably robust," Beacon's international trade adviser, Jock O'Connell, said.

O'Connell added that after adjustment for inflation, September's exports matched those of September, 2008, when recession began driving trade downwards.

"All indications are that the sustained growth in September's exports was led by airborne shipments of high-value items such as electronics components, medical and scientific instruments, and pharmaceuticals," here.

A record 3.5 million of the state's registered voters decline to join a political party, according to updated figures released today by Secretary of State Debra Bowen.

The figure is a record both in terms of the raw number and the percentage of the voters registered decline to state, which increased from 20.18 percent (the previous record set in January) to 20.25 percent.

The state added more than 300,000 new voters between Sept. 3 and Oct. 18.

Here is the full breakdown, reflecting figures as of Oct. 18:

Total registered voters: 17,285,883 (73.4 percent of the eligible population)
Democrats: 7,620,240 (44.08 percent of registered voters)
Republicans 5,361,875 (31.02 percent of voting population)
Decline-to-state: 3,500,696 (20.25 percent of registered voters)
American Independent 413,032 (2.39 percent of registered voters)
Green: 113,835 (0.66 percent of registered voters)
Libertarian: 91,111 (0.53 percent of registered voters)
Peace and Freedom: 57,776 (0.33 percent of registered voters)
Miscellaneous: 127,318 (0.74 percent of registered voters)

Click here to read the full registration report.

Ten state Assembly members and four senators -- all Republicans -- voted 100 percent with the state Chamber of Commerce on 17 key bills this year, earning them the title of "best business votes."

At the other end of the scale, only one Democratic legislator - Stockton's Cathleen Galgiani - scored 80 percent or better in the chamber's ranking, thus illustrating the Capitol's stark ideological division.

The lowest-ranking Democrats in the chamber's tally were Sens. Jenny Oropeza of Long Beach and Patricia Wiggins of Santa Rosa, but both missed almost all of the session due to illness. Oropeza died last week.

Among active Democratic legislators, San Francisco Sen. Leland Yee scored the lowest in the chamber's rankings, voting with the business group just twice, followed by Assemblywoman Noreen Evans of Santa Rosa, the Democratic candidate to succeed Wiggins this year, with three pro-chamber votes.

The full list of bills and votes can be found here.

Curious about how much your local government officials and employees are being paid?

In the wake of the City of Bell scandal, state Controller John Chiang, whose office monitors local government finances, ordered cities and counties to submit detailed data on how much they're paying their employees, including elected officials.

Chiang now has posted preliminary results on a website along with lists of local governments that either didn't respond or didn't provide all the information demanded.

"The absence of transparency and accountability invites corruption, self-dealing, and the abuse of public funds," said Chiang. "This website will help taxpayers scrutinize local government compensation and force public officials to account for how they spend public resources."

SchwarzeneggerSign.JPGWith his actions on the final flurry of budget-related bills, Arnold Schwarzenegger goes down in political history as the modern governor most likely to veto legislation.

Peter Detwiler, chief consultant to the Senate Local Government Committee, has compiled statistics on legislation dating back to Ronald Reagan's first year as governor in 1967 and updates them annually.

This year - Schwarzenegger's last as governor - he rejected 28.77 percent of the 1,029 regular session bills that reached his desk. He set the record for vetoes in 2008 by rejecting 35.17 percent of bills passed by the Legislature.

Schwarzenegger has the three highest veto percentages of any recent governor while one of the candidates to succeed him, Democrat Jerry Brown has the three lowest veto ratios, including his last year as governor in 1982, when he rejected just 1.79 percent of bills.

Detwiler's data also prove that over the years, the Legislature's output, in terms of the number of bills passed, has declined sharply.

During the Reagan, Brown and George Deukmejian governorships, the Legislature routinely passed 1,500 to 2,000 bills each year, topped in 1990 at 2,143.Since then, output has dropped steadily, hitting bottom at 893 last year before rising a bit to 1,029 this year. But with Schwarzenegger's vetoes, only 733 became law, the second lowest total in modern history.

PHOTO: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, left, with Sen. Elaine Alquist, D-Santa Clara, is shown during a ceremonial bill signing, Friday, Oct. 1, 2010, in Los Angeles.

With both the labor force and jobs declining, California's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 12.4 percent in September.

While 23 states and the District of Columbia reported higher employment and lower unemployment rates in the monthly federal jobs report, California shed 63,600 jobs between August and September, the largest job loss of any state.

September's unemployment rate was a bit higher than in September 2009, with employment about 43,000 lower than a year earlier. Construction jobs took the biggest hit between August and September, the Employment Development Department said, with an 8.8 percent drop. The biggest gain, 2.9 percent, was in professional and business services.

Unemployment rates ranged from a low of 8.4 percent in Marin County to a high of 30.4 percent in Imperial County, and only seven of the state's 58 counties had jobless rates below 10 percent. The full report, including breakdowns by job category and county, is available here.

Californians' purchases of new cars and light trucks, which had plummeted to just over a million vehicles in 2009, are on the rise, the California New Car Dealers Association says in its quarterly report.

As recession gripped the state, new vehicle registrations, once over two million a year, barely made it past one million in 2009, the lowest level in more than three decades, but are projected to be 100,000-plus more in 2010.

New car registrations increased by 19.8 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and 26 percent in the second quarter, but were flat in the third quarter - which the organization said reflected a short-term surge in the third quarter of 2009 due to the federal "Cash for Clunkers" rebate plan. The association expects a 5 percent gain in the fourth quarter.

The slowly increasing sales of new cars are important not only to auto dealers, but to state and local governments they are a major source of sales taxes. Each new car generates about $2,000 in taxes.

As sales have improved, Honda's Civic and Accord models have become the state's most popular new cars, replacing Toyota's long-time leader, the Camry, which has dropped to third. The full report, including a model-by-model breakdown of sales, is available here.

The Legislature's budget analyst's report on growing deficits in the state Unemployment Insurance Fund is based on outdated information and too pessimistic, the state Employment Development Department says in releasing its own UIF update.

The Legislative Analyst's Office based its report, projecting a $20-plus billion UIF deficit by the end 2011, on EDD's May semi-annual projection. And as soon as the LAO report was released, EDD released its own update projecting that unemployment in California, now approaching 2.5 million workers, will begin to decrease next year.

Instead of a $20-plus billion UIF deficit by the end of 2011, EDD now says it will be $13.4 billion. It also has revised, downward, its 2010 year-end deficit from $15.3 billion to $10.3 billion, largely because the federal government is directly financing extensions of unemployment insurance as part of the "economic stimulus" package

As Capitol politicians struggle with the state budget crisis, they've largely ignored the state's other big deficit that in another year will be as large as the gap in the state budget.

The Legislature's budget analyst, Mac Taylor, said in a report today that the deficit in the recession-battered Unemployment Insurance Fund "is projected to increase to approximately $20 billion at the end of 2011."

With nearly 2.5 million California workers jobless, the UIF is paying out more than $11 billion a year in benefits while collecting just $4.5 billion in payroll taxes paid by employers. It dropped into deficit mode in January 2009 and has been sustained since by loans from the federal government, Taylor noted.

The loans have been interest-free but the state, under current federal law, must begin paying interest next year - $500 million in September 2011 and "growing interest obligations in the out years."

Taylor said the Legislature faces "difficult choices" to return the UIF to solvency, such as reducing benefits and raising payroll taxes, either of which could also have adverse effects on the state's fragile economy. "At a minimum," Taylor recommends, the state should "take prompt action to bring (unemployment) benefits and tax revenues into line so that the accumulated deficit and associated interest obligation stops growing."

Taylor's full report can be found here.

California has the second highest bond debt burden among the nation's largest states, a new report by state Treasurer Bill Lockyer says.

The "2010 Debt Affordability Report" says that California voters have authorized $130.1 billion in general obligation bonds, of which $68.8 billion have been issued, and servicing those bonds consumes 6.89 percent of the state's general fund revenues.

Whether measured by ratio of debt to personal income, debt per capita or debt as a percentage of the state's economic output, California's debt burden is second only to New York's among the 10 most populous states. By all of those measures, California's bonded debt is more than twice as high as the average among the 10 states. Texas has the lowest debt load.

Accordingly, California has the nation's lowest state credit rating and states with low debt loads, such as Texas, have relatively high credit ratings.

The full report can be found here.

California has 1.2 million mentally ill residents and a quarter of its prison inmates suffer from mental illness, the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI) says in a new nationwide survey.

Overall, NAMI gives California a "C" grade on how it deals with mental illness, just above the national "D." No state earned an "A" and just seven a "B" in the NAMI survey.

California has by far the largest number of mentally ill residents of any state and, with 12 percent of the nation's population, about 11 percent of its mentally ill. California's estimated 41,400 mentally ill state prison inmates, roughly 25 percent of the prison population, mirrors the national percentage, NAMI found.

The full NAMI report is available here.

When Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger pared nearly a billion dollars from the state budget, Democratic politicians and liberal groups cried foul and said they'd attempt to undo the cuts in health and social services when the Legislature returns to Sacramento in December.

Whether the cuts will be restored, however, depends largely on whether Democrat Jerry Brown or Republican Meg Whitman wins the governorship. Brown has been studiously nonspecific on what he'd do about the persistent state budget crisis while Whitman says she wants to cut more and reduce taxes to spur economic recovery.

A new study on state and local government financed by the Pacific Research Institute -- a conservative, San Francisco-based think tank -- implies that Whitman's position is the correct one, without specifically endorsing her approach.

California's median household income dropped nearly 3 percent in 2009 as recession gripped the state, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today.

The drop of 2.9 percent in Californians' household income mirrored almost exactly that of the nation as a whole. While the state's 2009 median income of $58,921 is still nearly $8,000 above the national level, its ranking vis-à-vis other states also declined.

In 2008, the Census Bureau calculated, California's median income of $60,625 was ninth highest among the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. But in 2009 it dropped to 10th behind Washington, D.C., at $59,290. Marylanders had the highest median incomes in 2009 at $69,272. Puerto Ricans had the lowest, just $18,314. Among the states, Mississippi was lowest at $36,646.

Most states saw declines in median incomes last year, with the 5.7 percent drop in Florida the worst. A few had gains, led by the 5.1 percent increase in North Dakota.

The income survey is part of a topic-by-topic release of Census Bureau data from its annual American Community Survey. Another nugget from the data: California and Arizona are the only two states west of the Mississippi whose residents' disability rates are lower than the national average.

Data from the 2010 Census will be released late this year. The newest data dump, which covers several topics, can be found here.

California's state and local governments collected $33.6 billion in taxes during the second quarter of this year, according to the Census Bureau's latest report on governmental finances.

California's tax collections were 16.6 percent of the national state and local government total of $202.2 billion, a 1.65 percent gain over the second quarter of 2009. It was the third straight quarter of year-to-year gains.

California's sales and personal income tax collections during the quarter were nearly 10 percent higher than the second quarter of 2009, the Census Bureau said, while its corporate income taxes were down nearly 43 percent. The sharp increases in sales and income taxes reflect temporary tax rate increases enacted last year.

With the April 15 income tax filing deadline falling in the quarter, nearly half of California's state-local tax collections were personal income taxes, $15.6 billion, nearly 22 percent of all the state income tax revenues in the nation.

Number-crunchers can find the complete report here.

Gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman and other Republicans contend that California's poor business climate is driving employers and their jobs out of the state, but an updated study by the Public Policy Institute of California found otherwise.

Relocations account for a tiny percentage of the state's job losses, the PPIC study found - just 1.7 percent from 1992 to 2006 and never more than 2.3 percent in any one year.

"Few businesses move into or out of California," says the report, written by PPIC's Jed Kolko. "From 1992 through 2006, about 16,000 jobs annually moved into California and about 25,000 jobs annually moved out of California. The annual net employment change in California due to relocation - a loss of about 9,000 jobs - represents only .05 percent of California's 18 million jobs."

Furthermore, Kolko's research found, California's losses from employer movement are well below the national average of the states. Washington, D.C., suffers the biggest such loss, 6.9 percent of its total employment decrease.

"In California," Kolko continues, "74 percent of job gains and 68 percent of job losses are homegrown. Most job gains are due to the births and expansions of locally owned businesses; most job losses are due to the contractions and deaths of locally owned businesses.

"Businesses headquartered outside a county contribute much less to local employment fluctuations. The homegrown shares of job gains and losses are even higher in smaller cities and towns and in rural areas. Among the non-metropolitan counties in California, 79 percent of job gains and 74 percent of job losses are homegrown. Thus, although luring businesses from elsewhere or convincing them to open or expand locally is a common economic development strategy, and preventing businesses from leaving the state is a political refrain, 4 most job gains and losses are homegrown."

What Kolko's research does not - and cannot - show, however, is whether the state's business climate is a significant deterrent to new job-creating investment. There's no objective way to determine why investments are made inside or outside the state, since investors don't reveal their reasons for such decisions.

The full PPIC study can be found here.

RCB POTHOLES 01.JPGCalifornians are driving on some of the nation's roughest roads, streets and highways, the annual road condition survey by a national highway construction advocacy group says.

The Road Information Program (TRIP) says that eight major California urban areas are on the list of 20 regions with the nation's worst roadway conditions, topped by No. 1 San Jose and No. 2 Los Angeles, with 64 percent and 63 percent substandard roads respectively.

Other California regions on the top 20 list are Concord (4), San Francisco-Oakland (5), San Diego (8), Indio-Palm Springs (9), Riverside-San Bernardino (12), and Sacramento (14). California's smaller communities also are prominent on a separate TRIP list, topped by Antioch at No. 1 and Santa Rosa at No. 2.

"Roads are battered and shattered in every urban area of California, and they are costing the state's motorists hundreds of dollars a year at a time when they can ill afford it," Bert Sandman, executive director of Transportation California, a TRIP affiliate, said in a statement. "Despite the best efforts of Caltrans and local transportation agencies, it's difficult to keep up with maintenance and rehabilitation, much less accommodate relentless traffic and population growth given tight federal, state and local funding."

California's poverty rate rose in 2009 for the third straight year to 15.3 percent, according to a new Census Bureau report issued Thursday, although it's still well below the state's modern poverty high point of 18-plus percent in 1992, during last major recession.

The state's rate is one percentage point above the national poverty rate but roughly in line with the rate in Western states as a whole. It's also nearly three percentage points higher than it was in 2007.

"This is proof of just how hard the recession has hit Californians, and low-income Californians in particular," said Jean Ross, executive director of the liberal California Budget Project. "It's critical that we make smart policy choices to get the economy working for all of us."

JV_BACKTOSCHOOL 132.JPGThe California Teachers Association and other advocates of higher spending on public schools often complain that California is at or near the bottom in per-pupil spending, compared to other states.

Conservatives on the other side of the school finance issue complain that too much of the state's school money is wasted, often citing the assertion that California's teachers are the highest paid in the nation.

The CTA et al. then counter that California's high salaries are not so high when the state's notoriously high cost of living is factored into the equation.

And so the debate goes, year after year, especially as the state struggles to balance its budget. But what are the facts?

EdSource, a Mountain View-based think tank on California education issues, has weighed in with a report called "How California Ranks," aimed at providing a factual basis for the debate. But it also warns that its data, like all numbers on schools, are at least a couple of years old while the overall financial picture for schools is changing constantly.

Among the report's points:

The federal government spends more money in California than any other state, thanks to its having nearly 12 percent of the nation's population, but California's per capita federal spending is one of the nation's lowest, according to an exhaustive new Census Bureau report.

The report, covering federal spending for the 2009 fiscal year, says that Californians received $346 billion in federal funds during the year from dozens of specific programs, including Social Security, 10.7 percent of the $3.2 trillion in federal outlays. California's per capita spending, however, was 36th among the states - in part because with a relatively young population, the state was 48th in retirement and disability payments.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and other California political figures have complained about the relative low return of federal funds to the state, but if Social Security is a major factor in such low ranking, there may be little or nothing that politicians can do about the situation.

That's especially true when California once was the recipient of 20 percent of national defense spending but that has since fallen to 11 percent. Virginia - home of the Pentagon - now is the largest destination of defense spending.

California's $346 billion in federal spending in 2009 was actually a sharp increase from the $300 billion in 2008 and the $260 million in 2007. One reason for the increase is the state's high unemployment rate. The feds spent $12.1 billion on unemployment insurance payments in 2009.

Within California, Los Angeles County - home of more than a quarter of the state's population - was also the state's largest recipient of federal funds in 2009, $80.2 billion or 23 percent of the state's total.

The complete report, with dozens of detailed charts that break down federal spending by state, county, program and department, is available here.

AOC_DelWebb_044w.JPGCalifornia's stubborn recession -- the worst since the Great Depression -- began with the crash of a high-flying housing industry that had been fueled with billions of dollars in speculative mortgage money.

The extent of that crash has been charted in a very detailed examination of housing economic impacts in California by the California Homebuilding Foundation and the Center for Strategic Economic Research.

At its apex in 2005, the study found, housing accounted for $67.7 billion in direct economic activity and nearly a half-million jobs but by 2009, the numbers had dropped to $13.8 billion and 77,000 jobs -- and overall decline of about 80 percent.

The industry's rise and fall had immense ripple effects. Sharply rising home prices, for example, sparked an explosion of equity-based borrowing by homeowners that fueled spending on remodeling, landscaping, auto and recreational vehicle sales and other retail activities. But with the crash, home prices dropped sharply and consumers throttled back their spending, with major effects on other sectors.

The full study can be found here.

PHOTO CREDIT: A worker applies grout to stone veneer on a house under construction in Elk Grove. Autumn Cruz/ Sacramento Bee file photo, Nov. 13, 2009.

Facing reduced revenues and state aid, California's cities, counties and school districts have loaded the November ballot with more than 100 bond issue and tax increase measures, according to a compilation by the California Taxpayers Association.

They include six cities that want to impose taxes on local marijuana dispenseries.

Nearly a third of the ballot measures would impose what are called "parcel taxes," a form of property tax that does not reflect value and thus is outside Proposition 13's limit on value-related property taxes.Oakland Unified School District, for example, wants to collect $195 per year per parcel of property, if voters allow.

There are 29 school bond issues and two local government bonds, seven proposed increases in hotel taxes, 12 city or county sales tax hikes, 16 utility tax boosts, six increases in vehicle registration fees, and one new business tax.

The liberal San Francisco Bay area appears to be the vortex of local tax and bond proposals. San Francisco itself wants a $46.15 million bond issue for seismic refits, an increase in the hotel tax and a $10 per year increase in vehicle fees.

One of the most controversial proposals, however, is in San Diego, where leaders want a half-cent boost in sales taxes for five years to ease the city's budget woes, caused in part by deficits in its pension fund. The pension fund scandal has wracked the city for years and forced one mayor out of office.

Most of the proposed sales tax hikes are, like San Diego's, a half-cent and if approved would push the total state-local sales tax rate to nearly 10 cents on the dollar in some locales, including a temporary one-cent increase in the state's share of the sales tax due to expire next year.

Illegal immigrants constitute just over 4 percent of the nation's adult population but are producing 8 percent of the nation's babies, a new study by the Pew Hispanic Center has revealed.

Why? Immigrants, the study report says, are younger than the population as a whole and have relatively high birthrates.

The study, based on both Census Bureau data and the Pew center's own research, was released as the "anchor baby" controversy heats up in national politics. Some Republicans have called for changing the U.S. Constitution's provision that grants citizenship to babies born in the country regardless of their parents' immigration status. The 14th Amendment was enacted in 1868 to legalize children of former slaves.

While the Pew study was national in scope, its proportions would be higher in states with high levels of illegal immigration, particularly California. There are an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the country, about a quarter of whom are in California, past studies have indicated. That's roughly 8 percent of the state's population, twice the national proportion.

The Pew study would imply, therefore, that perhaps 16 percent of the 500,000-plus babies born each year in California have illegal immigrant parents. That's roughly in line with other calculations.

State Department of Health Services birth statistics don't delve into the legal status of parents, but they do reveal that nearly half of the state's babies are born to immigrant mothers. Overall, the foreign-born population of California is estimated at some 13 million, or more than a third of the state's population. Legal immigrants outnumber illegal immigrants in the state by 3 to 1.

The full Pew report is available here.

California's export trade is continuing its sharp recovery with shipments during June up by nearly 23 percent over the same month of 2009, an analysis by Beacon Economics of monthly Commerce Department data shows.

It was the eighth straight month of year-over-year increases, Beacon's trade advisor, Jock O'Connell, said, adding that during the first six months of 2010, California's merchandise exports totaled $68.46 billion, a 21.5 percent increase over the first half of 2009.

"This is good news,"O'Connell said. "We continue to dig ourselves out of a deep trough. A year ago now, we were plumbing the depths of a global recession in international trade. Today, while we have not returned to 2008 levels, our exports are just about even with where they were in 2007."

However, O'Connell said the rate of export growth may decline later in the year due to sluggish levels fo global trade. "Somewhere there may be a mystic soothsayer forecasting a robust expansion in world trade, but no one else is," O'Connell said. "Instead, there is a general sense that the air is about to go out of the balloon as governments worldwide implement harsh deficit-reduction policies even though private sector demand remains fairly tepid."

Imports through California were also up in June, 29.9 percent over June 2009. O'Connell's full report, including detailed breakdowns of exports by country and commodity type, can be found here.

Hammered by recession, Californians' personal incomes dropped by nearly $40 billion in 2009, according to a new report from the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. It was California's first year-to-year decline in personal income since World War II.

The decline, 2.4 percent, was a third more than the national 1.8 percent personal income drop, reflecting the relative intensity of the state's recession, which has driven unemployment beyond 12 percent. With less money to spend, Californians have sharply reduced their retail spending and state and local governments have felt the effects in lower income and sales tax revenues.

Californians' personal income had risen to $1.6 trillion in 2008, two percent higher than 2007, but dropped to $1.56 trillion last year, falling back to just below the 2007 level.

A map showing California in relation to other states is available here.

RB UC_Davis Tour.JPGCalifornia's white male high school graduates are the least likely societal subgroup to immediately continue their educations in public colleges and universities, the California Postsecondary Education Commission has found in a compilation of 2008-vintage data.

Overall, 48.3 percent of 2008's high school graduates enrolled in the University of California, the California State University system or one of the state's 110 community colleges, a rate that's been drifting downward over the past couple of decades.

Asian/Pacific Islander graduates of both genders are the most likely to move quickly into post-secondary education at 64.7 percent, down five points from the high a year earlier. Filipino Americans are next at 63.9 percent, followed by African Americans at 48.7 percent, Native Americans at 48.3 percent, Latinos at 47.1 percent and whites at 41.8 percent.

White males, at 41.2 percent, are the lowest enrolling subgroup. However, the data don't measure private college enrollments or college attendance later.

The data also show a large gap in the type of higher education sought with 23.1 percent Asian/Pacific Islander graduates entering the UC system, more than twice the percentage of any other group. At the other end of the scale, just 4 percent of Latino graduates and 5.7 percent of white graduates attend a UC school.

The full report, which can be drilled in depth for other data, is available here.

PHOTO CREDIT: A UC Davis Visitor Services tour guide addresses a group of potential incoming freshmen and others during a walking tour of the campus on April 14, 2008. Sacramento Bee / Randall Benton

Democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer hold narrow leads over their Republican challengers with more than three months of campaigning to come before the November election, a new Public Policy Institute of California poll has found.

The poll, conducted during the first weeks of July, found that Attorney General Brown, the Democratic candidate for governor, is virtually tied with Republican Meg Whitman, leading 37 percent to 34 percent among likely voters with 23 percent still undecided.

PPIC also found Boxer, a three-term U.S. senator, leading Republican Carly Fiorina 39 percent to 34 percent with 22 percent undecided.

The margins are similar to those in other recent polls, but PPIC's survey found substantially more undecided voters than the others.

The PPIC poll was geared to environmental concerns and found that Brown and Boxer both hold large leads among voters who consider environmental issues "very important."

The pro-immigrant Immigration Policy Center today released a massive state-by-state survey of immigrants' economic and political impact, clearly aimed at boosting prospects of immigration reform in Congress, and California, not surprisingly, is a major feature of the report.

"Immigrants, Latinos, and Asians account for large and growing shares of the U.S. economy and electorate," the Washington-based organization said. "Overall, immigrants made up more than 12 percent of the U.S. population (or nearly 38 million people) in 2008, and more than 43 percent of them are naturalized U.S. citizens meaning they are eligible to vote."

"Immigrant, Latino, and Asian workers and entrepreneurs are integral to the U.S. economy and tax base - and they are an electoral force with which every politician must reckon," the center continued.

The compilation of data from various sources included a profile of immigrants in California, concluding that foreign-born Californians are now more than a quarter of the state's population, nearly that proportion of its registered voters and more than a third of its labor force.

The data cited for Latino and Asian voting in California, drawn from the 2008 presidential election, however, don't compute.

Filming Flap.JPGFilm-making, California's most famous industry, has been shedding jobs in the state and is in danger of going the way of the once-powerful aerospace industry, the Milken Institute says in a study released Thursday.

"California has lost 36,000 total jobs, $2.4 billion in wages and $4.2 billion in total economic output," Milken said.

"Those benefits would still be here boosting the economy if the state had been able to maintain the share of industry employment it enjoyed in 1997. Instead, these jobs have been going to places like New York, Vancouver, and even New Mexico, Louisiana and Georgia."

The study found that the number of movies wholly or partially filmed in California has dropped from 272 in 2000 to 160 in 2008. The state's share of North American film-making has declined from 40 percent in 1997 to 37.4 percent.

At the behest of one-time action movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state has enacted a tax credit for in-state movie production. The governor says it's beginning to bear fruit.

But Milken says more steps are needed to restore the industry's prominence in the state, including more tax incentives to match those of other states and Canada.

The full report, called "Film Flight," can be found here.

PHOTO CREDIT: An extra in the DreamWorks' production of "The Soloist" walks past movie lights during a location shoot at the Biltmore Hotel in downtown Los Angeles on March 20, 2008. (AP File Photo/ Damian Dovarganes)

FORD MUSTANG.JPGAfter several years of sharp declines, California's new car sales appear to be headed upward in 2010, a new report from the California New Car Dealers Association says.

Sales of cars and light trucks, which had been running more than two million units a year prior to the recession, dropped to scarcely one million in 2009, the lowest level in some 35 years, and dozens of new car dealerships went out of business.

The association forecast a 15.3 percent increase to 1.2 million vehicles this year and through the first half of the year, sales are up by 23 percent over 2009. That's 44,000 more units, each of which generates about $2,000 in state and local sales taxes.

"We have seen the bottom and folks are returning to the showroom" said Tom Hoffman, owner of Puente Hills Chevrolet and CNCDA chairman.

The report, which includes a model-by-model breakdown, can be found here.

PHOTO CREDIT: Assemblyline robots weld the new 2005 Ford Mustang at the AutoAlliance International plant in Flat Rock, Mich., on Sept. 27, 2005. (AP File Photo/ Carlos Osorio)

Hate crimes reported to police declined by more than one-fifth in 2009, the Department of Justice said Thursday in its annual report on such offenses, and the drop in violent hate crimes was slightly larger.

Overall, the department said, hate crimes have declined by half since peaking in 2001, from 2,261 to last year's 1,100. Of last year's reports, 479 were referred to prosecutors, 363 criminal cases were filed, 283 of them as hate crimes, and there were 223 convictions, 131 for hate crimes.

"While the drop in these crimes is encouraging," Attorney General Jerry Brown said in a statement, "hate has certainly not been banished from California. The sheer total of incidents motivated by hate is a reminder of how much harder we need to work to overcome prejudice, bigotry and ignorance."

The full report may be read here.

A major overhaul in California's system of compensating workers for job-related illnesses and injuries took effect in mid-decade, dramatically cutting costs for medical care and direct payments, and profits of workers' compensation insurers soared.

In 2006, according to the Workers' Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau, insurers earned nearly 27 percent on employer-paid premiums of $17.3 billion. The rising profits fueled demands by labor unions, medical care providers and workers' comp attorneys that the overhaul, pushed through the Legislature by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, be modified.

Since then, however, premiums have plummeted to $9.1 billion in 2009 and costs, especially medical costs, have increased sharply. And the result, the rating bureau says, is that insurers lost $1.5 billion on workers' compensation policies last year after breaking even in 2008.

Pending Home Sales.JPGLocal assessors and the state Board of Equalization are still compiling final data, but it appears that local governments will see another decline in property tax revenues this year.

The sharp decline in the state's residential and commercial property market resulted in a 2.3 percent decrease in taxable property values last year to $4.4 trillion and preliminary reports from counties indicate another drop in the same neighborhood, or perhaps even more. One county, Calaveras, has already recorded a 12 percent decline, according to the California Taxpayers' Association.

A 2 percent decline translates into a nearly $1 billion drop in property tax revenues to counties, cities, school districts and other local government agencies. Shortfalls to schools must be made up by additional state aid. Property tax rates are fixed at 1 percent of assessed value under Proposition 13, enacted in 1978, plus the amount needed for debt service, about a tenth of 1 percent.

A county-by-county compilation of 2009-2010 property tax data is available here. Numbers for 2010-2011 are due to be finalized within a few weeks.

PHOTO CREDIT: In this July 24, 2009 file photo, a pending home sale in Palo Alto is shown. (AP Photo/ Paul Sakuma)

BB SCHWARZENEGGER H20 0168.JPGAs California's tax revenues and state spending have dropped in recent years, the amount of money the state must spend to service bond debt has remained fixed.

The result, according to a new analysis of state debt by the Legislative Analyst's Office, is that the percentage of state spending devoted to repayment has been climbing and is likely to keep growing as more bonds are issued.

Debt service is now about 6 percent of the state's $86 billion general fund budget, more than twice what it was a decade ago, thanks both to more borrowing and either stagnant or declining spending during the decade. Since 2000, voters have authorized nearly $97 billion in new bond issues, although not all of them have been sold.

Borrowing, coupled with stagnation in spending due to a stubborn recession, could push the portion of the budget devoted to bond service past 8 percent by mid-decade, the analysis says.

The analysis was prepared by the Legislative Analyst's Office to accompany its voter guide explanation of a new $11.1 billion water bond issue, Proposition 18, on the November ballot. But it may be moot: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders, fearing its rejection, want to delay placing the bond before voters until 2012.

The full bond debt overview can be accessed here.

PHOTO CREDIT: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger speaks at a rally in support of his water bond proposal at the state Capitol on Aug. 13, 2008. Sacramento Bee file photo/ Brian Baer.

bp elections baby.JPGFor many years, the secretary of state's office would issue pre-election forecasts of voter turnout, but when Debra Bowen won the office, she stopped the practice.

In her stead, the Field Institute, the state's most venerable polling organization, has been issuing its own turnout forecasts, based on its surveys of registered voters. Before the June primary, Field predicted that a third of the state's registered voters would cast ballots.

Bowen has confirmed Field's turnout prediction was right on the money. Exactly 33.3 percent of California's registered voters -- 5.65 million in all -- cast ballots, either in person or by mail.

Despite Field's prediction, Bowen labeled the turnout "somewhat surprising given some of the high-profile primary and initiative contests on the ballot."

Turnout was five percentage points higher than the 2008 primary election, but there were no statewide contests then at issue and the presidential vote was a foregone conclusion. This year's turnout was almost identical, however, to that of the 2006 primary.

Tiny Sierra County had the state's highest turnout, 73.3 percent, and gigantic Los Angeles County, with more than a quarter of the state's population, had the lowest, 23.5 percent. Nearly 58 percent of June's votes were via vote-by-mail ballot, continuing a years-long trend of lower in-person voting.

The full election results may be found here -- with the caveat that a recount is under way in the 40th Senate District, where two Democrats are separated by just a handful of votes.

PHOTO CREDIT: Juliet Shah, 4 1/ 2 months old, looks up at her father, Cyril Shah, as he votes in Sacramento during the primary election on June 3, 2008. Sacramento Bee file photo/ Bryan Patrick

DRY FIELD 86003639DM004_CALIFORNIA_S_.JPGVirtually all of California faces the prospect of serious water shortages by mid-century due to climate change, the National Resources Defense Council declared today in a national report on water supply.

The NRDC report, prepared by Tetra Tech, says that water shortages loom for more than 1,100 counties, a third of all those in the 48 adjacent states. California is one of 14 states that face extreme or high risk of water shortages.

Dan Lashof, director of the NRDC climate center, said, "This analysis shows climate change will take a serious toll on water supplies throughout the country in the coming decades, with over one out of three U.S. counties facing greater risks of water shortages. Water shortages can strangle economic development and agricultural production and affected communities. As a result, cities and states will bear real and significant costs if Congress fails to take the steps necessary to slow down and reverse the warming trend."

A new state water plan, enacted last year, is aimed in part at offsetting changes in water supply from climate change, but the centerpiece of the plan, an $11.1 billion bond issue, may be removed from the November ballot. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders are concerned that it may be rejected due to significant opposition, especially from environmental groups, and voter angst as the state's recession continues.

The full NRDC report, which includes access to a map of California counties at risk, may be found here.

PHOTO CREDIT: Dust billows as a farmer plows a dry field April 16, 2009, near Buttonwillow. (Photo by David McNew/ Getty Images)

MC_MEDGRADS.03.JPGCalifornia's supply of physicians has been growing faster than its population in recent years and now matches the national ratio. While specialists abound, however, primary care physicians are in relatively short supply and the squeeze could increase as older doctors retire and demand for care increases under the new federal health plan.

So concludes a statistical report by the California Healthcare Foundation. "With large numbers of physicians nearing retirement," the foundation says, "and not all doctors taking patients with private or public insurance, those seeking care, especially in some regions, could have difficulty finding a provider."

Nearly 30 percent of California's physicians are 60 years or older, a higher percentage than any other state, the study found, and the state is increasingly dependent on foreign-trained physicians.

The full report can be found here.

PHOTO CREDIT: Dr. Nathan Hitzeman, a primary care physician, discusses a patient's symptoms with third-year resident Laura Applebaum at Sutter's Alhambra Family Practice on May 20, 2010. Sacramento Bee / Manny Crisostomo

California is home to 26 percent of an estimated 2.1 million young illegal immigrants who could earn legal status with the proposed federal DREAM Act, according to a new study by the Migration Policy Institute in Washington, D.C.

The study released this month by the nonpartisan research center uses data from the 2006 and 2008 federal Current Population Survey, along with 2000 Census information to estimate the size of this population of children and young adults.

California is home to by far the greatest number - 553,000 - of potential beneficiaries of the proposal, the study found. The study puts Texas in second place, with 258,000, or 12 percent, followed by Florida, with 192,000 or 9 percent; New York with 146,000 or 7 percent; and Arizona with 114,000 or 5 percent.

The Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors, or DREAM, Act, was first introduced in 2001 by Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, and Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill.

Durbin and Rep. Howard Berman, D-North Hollywood, reintroduced the proposal last year and interest in it was rekindled recently with President Obama's speech calling for immigration reform.

LS migrant dentist 2.JPGNearly a quarter of California's children have never seen a dentist, with black and Latino children and those whose families lack public or private dental insurance having the lowest rates of dental care, according to a new study from the California Health Care Foundation and UCLA's Center for Health Policy Research.

The biggest disparity appears to be keyed to dental insurance coverage. Fifty-four percent of privately insured children and 27 percent of publicly insured children had seen a dentist in the six months before the survey interviews, but just 12 percent of uninsured children had done so.

The study is published in the July issue of Health Affairs. It covers children 11 and under and is based on data from the 2005 California Health Interview Survey.

Interestingly, while researchers found that Latino and black children were less likely than Asian American or white children to have dental care, that disparity held true even among children of all races covered by Medi-Cal and the Children's Health Insurance Program.

The co-authors of the study, Nadereh Pourat, director of research planning at the UCLA center, and Len Finocchio, senior program officer at the health care foundation, said their findings raise concerns about the ability of public dental care programs and suggest that raising reimbursement rates to dentists and expanding the pool of providers might be needed.

The full report is available here.

PHOTO CREDIT: Children at Bates Elementary School in Courtland receive free dental care in a traveling dental van through the Healthy Families insurance program for low income children, Tuesday, July 12, 2005. Sacramento Bee file photo / Lezlie Sterling

85360946DM018_CALIFORNIA_TO.JPGIs California stressed or what?

Each month, the Associated Press generates a county-by-county index of economic stress for the entire nation and 13 of the 20 most stressed U.S. counties are in California, topped by poverty-wracked Imperial County in the state's southeastern corner.

The AP index is based on unemployment, home foreclosure and bankruptcy rates and any number over 11 is considered to indicate stress. Imperial, a mostly Latino, agricultural county, tops the nation with an index of 31.74 and adjacent Yuma County, Ariz., has the second highest rate, 29.14.

California counties on the high-stress list include No. 4 Merced, 24.55; Sutter, 23.93; Stanislaus, 23.6; Yuba, 23.59; San Benito, 23.12; San Joaquin, 22.65; Lake, 21.59; Riverside, 21.23; Kern, 21.14; Madera, 20.53; San Bernardino, 20.45; and Fresno, 20.01.

No California county is found on the AP's least-stressed list, whose leader is Ward County, S.D., at 3.35. Most others on the least-stressed list are in the upper Midwest.

The full AP account can be found here. The most- and least-stressed counties are listed here.

PHOTO CREDIT: Vacant storefronts are seen on Main Street March 12, 2009, in El Centro, the largest city in Imperial County. (David McNew/ Getty Images)

High-technology may become the dominant sector of California's diverse economy someday, but today it's still relatively small potatoes in terms of employment, a new study by the Public Policy Institute of California has found, even if it's higher in California than in other states.

High-tech industries employ 4.3 percent of California's workers, a proportion that has remained constant even as overall employment in the state has declined sharply due to recession, PPIC found. But that's markedly lower than the 5.6 percent level recorded in 2000, just before the much-heralded bust of the dot-com industry.

About half of the state's high-tech workers are employed in the manufacturing end of the industry, with another third in computer systems design, but the trend is toward more employment in high-tech services as manufacturing shifts to other states or nations. At one point, two decades ago, manufacturing employed two-thirds of high-tech workers.

The full PPIC report is available here.

Tulare County's three biggest cities collectively have the lowest quality of life in the 109 mid-sized American metropolitan areas in new survey by Portfolio.com, a website of local business newspapers -- and the main reason are their lack of college-trained professional workers.

The Visalia-Tulare-Porterville area "has the lowest percentage of management and professional workers in the study, 23.9 percent, which is less than half of Boulder's 50.1 percent," the report says, adding that it "is also dead last in the share of adults with college degrees, 12.7 percent."

Boulder, Colo., was rated tops in the Portfolio.com evaluation, which is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. And like Boulder, the other top-rated communities are all college towns.

Santa Cruz, another college town, was the highest ranking California community in the survey, taking 31st place, with still another college town, San Luis Obispo at 33rd. Other California cities on the list are Santa Rosa (61st), Vallejo (81st), Salinas (92nd), Stockton (102nd) and Modesto (103rd).

The Portfolio. Com article can be found here while the complete rankings are available here.

The state auditor's office received nearly 5,000 complaints of improper activities by state employees on its whistleblower line in 2009 and nearly 900 of them warranted more detailed investigation, the office said in its annual report today.

The reports and investigations were winnowed down to 11 "particularly significant" cases, including that of a Department of Industrial Relations investigator who misused $70,105 in state resources for her private safety instruction career for six years. She resigned during an internal followup investigation, and the department is determining whether to seek restitution.

Other problems outlined in the report include:

A supervisor in a Department of Water Resources field office improperly took $1,840 in stock car race tickets -- including a three-day trip to Florida for the Daytona 500 -- from a vendor that he had signed up as a department supplier.

A supervisor at the Herman G. Stark Correctional Facility made two psychiatric technicians perform clerical work for two and half years, wasting $110,797 in state funds by underusing the workers.

The full report is available here.

A record 174 of California's school districts have been identified as financially troubled by the state Department of Education, 38 percent more than appeared on a January list.

State schools Supt. Jack O'Connell said today the increasing number of distressed districts, including 14 receiving "negative certification" that could come under state supervision, reflects their declining state and local tax revenues. He termed it "a period of unprecedented fiscal crisis."

O'Connell, who is leaving office at the end of this year, released the list as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislators wrangle over how to close a $19-plus billion state budget deficit with education finance, roughly 40 percent of the budget, a major issue.

The 174 troubled districts are about 16 percent of all school districts in the state, but include many of the larger urban districts, including Los Angeles Unified, the nation's second largest school system with a $6 billion annual budget.

The full list can be found here.

ha_jerrybrown30191.JPGCalifornia's crime rate declined in 2009, including a 6.6 percent drop in violent crime, Attorney General Jerry Brown reported today.

It's not only good news for the state, but good news for Brown, who is the Democratic candidate for governor.

"This latest drop in crime," Brown said in a statement, "is good news for Californians and reflects well on the dedicated and courageous efforts of peace officers throughout the state. Yet it is no cause for complacency. Crime remains a serious problem in California, and law enforcement officials at every level must redouble their efforts to ensure public safety."

The drop in crime rates was pretty much across the board, from homicide, down 8.9 percent, to auto theft, 15.8 percent lower. And it continues a years-long trend of lower crime rates that began after criminal activity hit a high point nearly two decades ago.

Crime rates in 1992 and have since dropped by 50 percent overall, a trend also seen in arrest statistics. There were 1.9 million arrests in 1992, when the state's population was about 30 million, but just 1.4 million last year, with a population about 25 percent higher than in 1992.

Brown said lower crime rates were recorded in all five of the state's largest counties. The full set of crime reports can be found here.

PHOTO CREDIT: Attorney General Jerry Brown, Sacramento Bee file photo, May 6, 2010. Hector Amezcua / hamezcua@sacbee.com

jobhotline.jpgCalifornia's budget deficit is estimated at just under $20 billion, but it could be overshadowed next year by the rapidly increasing gap between income and outgo in the state fund that pays unemployment insurance benefits.

A new forecast of the Unemployment Insurance Fund's long-term condition, published by the Employment Development Department, says the UIF's deficit, which was $6.2 billion at the end of 2009, is expected to hit $15.3 billion by the end of this year and $20.9 billion by the end of 2011.

That forecast, believe it or not, contains a nugget of good news. The 2011 year-end deficit had been projected to be even higher, but a slow recovery from recession, the department says, should increase employment over the next year and a half and therefore reduce the outflow of unemployment checks.

Jean Ross (1 of 1).JPGA California family with two working parents needs an annual income of $75,500 to meet its basic needs, the California Budget Project, a left-leaning economic analysis organization, said today in a detailed report on costs of living -- aimed at influencing state budget deliberations now underway.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed deep cuts in welfare, health care and other social safety net services to close the state's whopping budget deficit.

"Our report strives to paint an accurate picture of what it costs for working families to pay the bills. We found that making ends meet remains out of reach for millions of Californians," said Jean Ross, executive director of the CBP. "As state policymakers craft a spending plan this summer, it's important that they support the public systems and structures that working families rely on, such as state-supported child care."

The CBP's estimate of a $75,500 income to meet basic needs would mean that both parents would have to be working with the equivalent wages of $18.15 per hour each. With adjustment for child care and other expenses, the study found, a two-parent family with a single working parent would need $54,039 per year, a single parent would need $64,239 and a single adult without a family would need $30,445.

The report, which includes county-by-county estimates of living expenses, is available here.

PHOTO: Jean Ross, California Budget Project.

Los Angeles County has one of the nation's lowest rates of smoking. But after years of sharp decline, the rate has remained static for the past eight years, according to a new study by the county's health department.

L.A. County's 10-plus million residents are more than a quarter of the state's population and the new study says 14 percent of its non-children - more than a million persons - are smoking, including 12 percent of teenagers.

The county's smoking rate is virtually identical to California's statewide rate, which is the second lowest of any state. Utah is by far the lowest at less than 10 percent, while Kentucky, a tobacco-growing state, is highest at 28-plus percent. California has spent tens of millions of dollars, much of it raised from cigarette taxes, to persuade Californians to quit smoking.

The Los Angeles study found wide disparities in smoking rates among the county's geographic areas and ethnic groups.

Wealthy, mostly white and Asian-American San Marino had the county's lowest rate of smoking, 5.3 percent, while in Quartz Hill, due north of San Marino on the other side of the San Gabriel Mountains, it was 21.9 percent.

L.A.'s men are more likely to smoke (19 percent) than women (10 percent) and black Angelenos, at 25 percent, are heavier smokers than whites (15 percent), Latinos (12 percent) or Asian Americans (11 percent).

"Targeted efforts are needed to further reduce cigarette smoking, especially among high-risk groups," the county's public health director, Dr. Jonathon Fielding, said in a cover letter.

The full report is available here.

California's utilities, under state order to sharply increase their portfolios of "renewable" power generation -- i.e. solar, wind and geothermal -- are showing major movement, the Public Utilities Commission said today.

The commission, in a quarterly report on reaching the goal of 20 percent renewables by 2010 and 33 percent by 2020, said that during the first three months of this year, the utilities hit 15.4 percent, up from 13 percent in 2008. They are on track to reach 18 percent by the end of this year and 21 percent next year, the PUC report said.

State laws passed in 2002 and 2006 set the 20 percent mark for 2010. Two years ago, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger established the 33 percent goal by executive order.

Southern California Edison has the highest percentage of renewable sources, 17.4 percent, followed by Pacific Gas and Electric, 14.4 percent, and San Diego Gas and Electric, 10.5 percent. Those three utilities provide about two-thirds of the state's electric power. The remaining third comes mostly through municipal utilities and irrigation districts.

The full PUC report is available here.

UPDATED at 3:00 p.m. to add information about auditor's analysis of data.

The 620 remaining applicants for seats on the state's new redistricting commission are mostly affluent white male Democrats, according to a new statistical study by one of those on the list.

Vladimir Kogan, a refugee from the Soviet Union who later became a journalist and political science scholar, reviewed the on-line profiles of all 620 to create his demographic and political profile. He is a researcher on governance issues for the Lane Center for the American West at Stanford University and a doctoral candidate at the University of California, San Diego.

Kogan found that 67.6 percent of those on the list are non-Latino whites -- roughly comparable to the proportion of the electorate that's white but more than 25 percentage points higher than the white non-Latino proportion of the overall population.

His analysis also determined that 53.3 percent are Democrats -- about nine percentage points higher than Democratic voter registration statewide -- and just 28.9 percent are Republicans, about two points below GOP registration.

California's chronic economic, fiscal and political woes have been drawing global media attention, including more than a few comparisons to hapless Greece.

The Atlantic magazine is the latest media outlet to take a potshot at California. Its July/August 2010 issue is devoted to big ideas, such as the concept that women are replacing men in economic, cultural and political prominence - and it does mention Republican candidates for governor and senator, Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina, in that context.

The Atlantic's shot at California, however, is found on its snarky list of "ideas we're having second thoughts about." It places California on the list, without explanation, along with Elizabeth Edwards, special envoys, "quants" (a.k.a. quantitative analysts), capitalism, e-mail, the Senate and the euro.

Exports from California continued to increase in April, partially offsetting deep reductions in the past few years, but they still remain well below their peaks and the European economic crisis makes the export future cloudy, Beacon Economics said today.

The private economic organization's trade adviser, Jock O'Connell, based his analysis on the newest data from the Department of Commerce, released this morning. Exports through California rose 21.8 percent in April over April 2009 to $11.26 billion. It was the sixth straight month of year-to-year gains.

"Impressive as these numbers certainly are, it's worth keeping in mind that we are still exporting less in real dollar terms than we were in April 2008," O'Connell said, adding concerns about the future.

"Since January 1st, the euro has lost between 16 percent and 18 percent of its value against the dollar and most other major currencies," O'Connell continued. "So it's not simply that our goods have become more expensive for Europeans to buy, it also means that European goods have become cheaper for importers in countries like Canada, Mexico, Japan, China, and South Korea - which represent California's top five export markets.

"We compete intensively against European exporters in all of those markets, and they've just cut their prices."

April's export rise was concentrated in Southern California ports with the number of loaded shipping containers leaving Los Angeles and Long Beach up 10.1 percent. Exports through the Port of Oakland were virtually unchanged in April from a year earlier.

The full Beacon Economics report is available here.

California's venerable Field Poll is the nation's most reliable political poll in terms of reflecting outcomes, according to FiveThirtyEight, a Chicago-based website that specializes in political data.

The website -- named for the number of votes in the presidential electoral college -- is the handiwork of Nate Silver, who runs a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus and says, "baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn't supported by the demographic evidence."

To rate the reliability of political polls, Silver collected 4,700 polls in races for president, U.S. Senate, Congress and governorships since 1998, plus the outcomes of the contests, and devised a reliability index that he applied both to polls with 10 or more surveys and those with any number.

The Field Poll, founded by Mervin Field more than 60 years ago and based in San Francisco, came out on top of both listings, bettering even the Gallup Poll and those conducted by national news organizations. The Public Policy Institute of California's poll ranked 31st in the latter group but the state's third major poll, conducted by the Los Angeles Times, ranked near the bottom.

The Field Poll appears in the Sacramento Bee and other newspapers. The full FiveThirtyEight rankings are available here.

DOWNTOWN_LOS_ANGELES.jpgLos Angeles is one of the nation's most fiscally troubled big cities, according to a study by the Pew Charitable Trusts.

While all of the 13 cities in Pew's ongoing examination are feeling the budgetary pinch of recession, Los Angeles' deficit, about 11 percent of its projected budget, is the fourth highest, behind Chicago, Kansas City and Phoenix. Pittsburgh was found to be the least troubled of the 13.

"Like Detroit, Los Angeles was confronting a big shortfall, talk of municipal bankruptcy and distrust between City Council and the mayor about the extent of the problems, much less the solutions," Pew says in its report, "Not Out of the Woods."

California may be leading the nation in a variety of negative categories, from the size of its budget deficit to traffic congestion, but it's also first in reducing pregnancy among teenage girls, according to a new study by the Guttmacher Institute.

California's population growth fell below 1 percent a year in 2009, but it will pick up so markedly that the state will have nearly 41 million residents by 2015, according to the state Department of Finance's demographic unit.

The new projection, based on births, deaths and domestic and foreign in- and out-migration, is that growth, calculated at 0.87 percent in 2009 and 2010, will reach 1.26 percent a year by 2015. California has seen higher growth rates in the past, topping 2 percent in 2000. But with its ever-increasing base, even a 1 percent rate means about 400,000 more Californians every year.

The 2000 census pegged the state's population at 34.1 million. The state's demographers say it's now 38.8 million, but the U.S. Census Bureau has consistently calculated a lower number, based largely on its estimate that far more people have moved out of California during this decade than the state believes. The discrepancy is now about 1.5 million people; the 2010 census presumably will settle the argument.

The full Department of Finance projection is available here.

Californians' personal incomes dropped in 2008 as recession began to grip the state, according to a new data compilation by the Franchise Tax Board.

While the median income on all 2008 personal income tax returns rose slightly over 2007 to $35,923, total adjusted gross income on all 15.5 million returns dropped by 7.2 percent to $1.11 trillion. For joint returns, the median was $58,981, also a slight gain from 2007.

While 2008 is the last year for which data are available, it's widely believed that Californians' personal income dropped again in 2009 as the recession deepened.

As usual, Bay Area counties reported the highest median incomes for 2008 with Marin County the highest (for joint returns) at $118,704, but that was a 3.85 percent drop from 2007. San Mateo County ranked second with $100,165,Santa Clara County third with $100,077, Contra Costa County fourth with $90,956, and Alameda County fifth with $88,138.

Rural Imperial County, in the state's southeastern corner, had the lowest median income on all returns, $24,035, and also the lowest on joint returns, $39,218, one-third of Marin's level.

"Median income" is the point where one-half of the tax returns are above and one-half are below the midpoint of the range of values.

Los Angeles County taxpayers filed 25.5 percent of all 2008 income tax returns in California and the county had a $31,679 median income or all returns, and $59,950 for joint returns, The county's residents paid $11.1 billion in personal income taxes for 2008, 25.4 percent of total collections ($43.6 billion) and 21/2 times as much as No. 2 Orange County.

California added nearly 400,000 bodies to its population in 2009, reaching 38.6 million, the state's demography office reported today.

The new state estimate, however, is more than a million persons higher than the Census Bureau's pre-census calculation of California's population. The census, now underway, will officially settle the conflict - which largely centers on differing estimates of movement out of the state during the last decade.

The state Department of Finance's demographic research unit says that Colfax, northeast of Sacramento in Placer County, was the state's fastest growing city in 2009, jumping 5.7 percent or nearly six times the state's overall growth rate.

Among the state's largest cities, Anaheim recorded the highest percentage growth, 1.6 percent, while Fresno passed the 500,000 mark for the first time, remaining the state's fifth largest. Los Angeles, the state's most populous city, added the most people, 44,037.

Six rural counties - Alpine, Calaveras, Lake, Plumas, Sierra and Mariposa - lost population during the year, the state says. Alpine's loss of nine residents dropped it to 1,189, the state's smallest county. But another rural county, Sutter, was the state's fastest-growing with a 2.7 percent gain.

The full report is available here.

Democratic voter registration in California is up nearly two percentage points from four years ago, and Republican registration is down nearly four points while the ranks of independents have crossed the 20 percent threshold, according to a new report by the secretary of state's office.

The report covers registration 60 days before the June 8 primary election. Another report will be prepared for registration 15 days from the election.

Four years ago, 60 days prior to the last non-presidential primary, Democrats had 42.68 percent of the state's registered voters and Republicans 34.57 percent. Today, the numbers are 44.57 percent and 30.79 percent. Independents, 18.29 percent four years ago, are now 20.14 percent.

Numerically, total voter registration is up from 15.6 million to 16.9 million, Democrats are up from, 6.6 million to 7.5 million and Republicans are down from 5.4 million to 5.2 million. Independents have increased from 2.8 million to 3.4 million.

Minor parties also suffered relative losses during the period, especially the Green Party, which saw its share decline from just under 1 percent to just two-thirds of one percent.

The full report, including district-by-district and county-by-county data, is available here.

Although consumer spending and personal incomes have picked up a bit in California, the state's consumer confidence level has dropped to a record low, according to a new poll by San Jose State University's Survey and Policy Research Institute.

New car sales dropped to scarcely a million vehicles in California last year, less than half their peak level a few years earlier, but showed a sharp uptick in the first quarter of this year, the California New Car Dealers Association reported Thursday.

New car and truck registrations jumped 19.8 percent in the first three months of the year, over the same period of 2009, four percentage points more than the national car sales increase, and March sales were up more than 30 percent.

"Pent up demand and manufacturer incentives have returned new car buyers to the market. The sales increase is good news for our employees and has started to generate much need sales tax revenue for our local governments and the state." said Tom Hoffman, CNCDA chairman and a Puente Hills Chevrolet dealer.. "Sales incentives, such as 0% financing and cash back, is good news for consumers who are enjoying the benefits of a buyer's market."

The sharp decline in auto sales had resulted in closure of hundreds of California dealerships and had a sharp downward effect on state and local sales tax revenues. The full quarterly report can be found here.

California has one of the nation's highest levels of government spending and taxes, and it adversely affects the state's economic competitiveness, according to a new report by the conservative, San Francisco-based Pacific Research Institute.

Employer-paid costs of insuring against work-related injuries and illnesses continued to decline in California last year, but payouts to disabled workers and medical care providers flattened out, thus proving new grist for the perpetual political machinations over the huge workers' compensation system.

The data are contained in an annual report by the authoritative Workers' Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau, indicating that the major overhaul of the system pushed through the Legislature in 2004 by employers and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is still having a big effect on its finances.

California could see a 27 percent increase in those receiving medical care under Medi-Cal, the federal-state program that serves low-income residents, under a major provision of the newly adopted overhaul of national health care, a new study has found.

But UnitedHealth Group also says that California could offset the higher costs and much more by upgrading its medical care delivery system. In fact, it could save 10 times as much as those extra costs, the Minneapolis-based managed care firm says.

As the largest state, California is expected to see the largest numerical growth in Medi-Cal enrollment, some 2 million, over the next nine years. But the 27 percent growth is actually below the national average of 32 percent, largely because California has a relatively large recipient base already, due to its relatively low threshold of qualifying for benefits. The program is called Medicaid in most states.

California's exports continued to climb out of recession in February, trade analyst Jock O'Connell said today after crunching the latest numbers from the Department of Commerce.

Export shipments from California rose 13.7 percent in February over those of a year earlier, as measured by value, hitting $10.38 billion, the fourth straight month of year-to-year gains.

"Even so, we are only now getting back to the level of exporting we were at three years ago, before the global financial and economic crisis sent international trade spiraling downward," O'Connell said. A long-time analyst for the University of California's Sacramento center, O'Connell now is affiliated with Beacon Economics International.

Imports through California rose even faster in February, jumping 38.3 percent to $22.53 billion. And February's export rise was reflected in traffic at California's ports, with the number of loaded shipping containers leaving Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland up by 27.5 percent over from last year. A similar boost was seen in outbound air freight tonnage.

O'Connell said the state should see sustained growth in exports, "if only because the economies of most of our top trading partners are expanding." He also noted that if China, as rumored, allows its currency to rise against the dollar, it would make American goods cheaper to Chinese importers.

"The most worrisome prospect on the current horizon involves the sovereign debt crisis gripping the European Union and especially those countries in the euro zone," he warned. Eight European nations, not all of whom use the euro as their currency, rank among California's top 25 export markets.

A new report has given California a "D" on its efforts to post information about government spending online.

The report, released today by the left-leaning Public Interest Research Group, gave California props for being one of 29 states to have a Web site that includes searchable databases of "checkbook-level" data on government spending. The state's site lost points for lacking information on tax subsidies, economic development incentives and past contracts.

A "D" might be a poor grade on most scales, but it was good enough to land California a spot on among the "emerging states" identified in the report.

"The good news is that state governments have become far more transparent about where the money goes, but California still has lots of room for improvement" CALPIRG spokesman Pedro Morillas said in a statement. "Given the current severity of our budget problems, Californians need to be confident that they can follow the money."

Click here to view the full report.

California's per-pupil spending on its more than 6 million elementary and high school students is the nation's sixth-lowest, but its teachers have the nation's second highest salaries, according to a new compendium of educational data by the National Education Association.

The data add fuel to California's wide-ranging debate over school finance, a major part of the deficit-ridden state budget. California education groups complain constantly about the state's relatively low per-pupil spending, while critics complain with equal frequency about the state's relatively high teacher salaries.

The NEA is an umbrella organization for state teacher unions, such as the California Teachers Association. It compiled national and state data on revenues, spending, enrollment and other indices, entitled "Rankings and Estimates," that runs 130 densely packed pages.

Among the revelations to be gleaned from those pages:

Amnesty or some other form of legalization of America's 12 million illegal immigrants -- about a quarter of whom are in California -- is one of the nation's hottest political issues, especially in this election year.

As President Barack Obama contemplates how to make good on his campaign pledge to pursue immigration reform, a sour economy has given new life to the fervidly debated question of whether legalization would have a positive or negative effect.

Across the nation, including California, Republican politicians are playing the immigration card. In California, GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner has made immigration his chief issue as he tries to catch Meg Whitman in their primary race. But recent polls have indicated that Californians are substantially less inflamed about immigration than they were in the 1990s, when voters passed a ballot measure, later overturned by the courts, that would have barred illegal immigrants from receiving public services.

Against that background, the Public Policy Institute of California has issued a study concluding that legalization would have very little economic impact, despite widespread belief that it would.

"Our research suggests ... that legalizing most currently unauthorized immigrants would not lead to dramatic changes in the labor market, either for unauthorized immigrants or for native workers," the PPIC report concludes, "We also find little evidence to support the view that such a step would have significant effects on the broader economy, particularly on tax revenues or public assistance programs."

With illegal immigrants constituting about 10 percent of California's workforce, jobs skills are a more important factor in their economic progression than their immigration status, PPIC says. And it's also not likely that legalization would have a major impact, positive or negative, on local and state government finances, it says.

The full report, which advocates that California begin planning for legalization, is available here.

California, which has lost 1.4 million jobs in the last two years, continued the trend in February, shedding another 20,400 jobs, the Employment Development Department announced today.

It meant that California's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 12.5 percent, more than two percentage points higher than it was a year earlier. It also meant that the state lost 586,400 jobs during the previous 12 months.

The number of officially unemployed rose 5,000 during the month to 2,274,000, EDD said, with the highest jobless rate, 27.6 percent, recorded in Colusa County and the lowest, 7.8 percent, in Mono County. Just five of California's 58 counties had unemployement rates below 10 percent.

California may have extraordinarily high housing costs, vis-à-vis those in other states, but when it comes to non-housing consumer spending, Californians are relatively thrifty, a new national study by Bundle, a website devoted to economic data, shows.

The average American household spends $37,782 a year on non-housing expenses, with Connecticut ranking first among the states at $57,332, Bundle says. In fact, Connecticut residents spend as much on dining out as West Virginia families spend on everything.

California ranks fourth in consumer spending at $42,962, behind the District of Columbia and Hawaii.

Austin, the capital of Texas, is the No. 1 spending city, with its families shelling out an average of $67,076 a year on non-housing expenses, perhaps lured by the city's proliferation of restaurants and live music venues. The highest-spending California city is San Jose, whose $59,022 is third highest in the nation. Irvine is ninth at $51,286 and San Francisco 19th at $45,291.

The full Bundle report can be found here.

California's state and local public employee pension funds suffered $27.3 billion in investment losses during 2008, the Census Bureau says, and that was more than two-thirds of all such losses in the nation.

San Franciscans are among the most vulnerable Americans to various forms of cybercrime, according to a new study by Symantec, a Mountain View-based maker of computer security programs.

San Francisco ranks fourth in the survey of larger communities, with Seattle rated as the riskiest city, followed by Boston and Washington, DC. "The rankings," Symantec said, "were determined through a combination of Symantec Security Response's data on cyberattacks and potential malware infections, as well as third-party data about online behavior, such as accessing wifi hotspots and online shopping."

Among California cities, San Diego was No. 14, Sacramento No. 16, Oakland No. 18, San Jose No. 20, Los Angeles No. 30, Long Beach No. 45 and Fresno No. 47. Recession-wracked Detroit, by the way, is the least riskiest cybercrime city.

The full list can be found here.

California wasn't alone when it boosted state taxes last year to cope with its budget deficit; nearly half of the 50 states also increased taxes, according to a new survey by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

However, California's increase in income, sales and auto taxes was the largest in state history, pegged at the time at $12-plus billion and accounted for nearly half of the $28.6 billion in new taxes levied by 24 states.

Voters reacted sharply to the increase, which was adopted in early 2009 after weeks of political infighting, and rejected a series of ballot measures that would, among other things, have extended the taxes. Without the extension, the added levies will begin phasing out at the end of this year, worsening the chronic gap between income and outgo.

The NCSL report, which may be purchased here, found that in the 24 states that did boost their taxes by more than 1 percent, the average was 3.7 percent of the previous year's tax collections. California's boost was more than 10 percent.

Increased personal income taxes accounted for nearly half of the additional revenues, followed by sales and corporate income taxes. Motor vehicle taxes accounted for $1.9 billion of the total "with much of the net increase coming from vehicle tax changes in California."

Support for same-sex marriage appears to be increasing in California and has hit 50 percent for the first time in polling by the Public Policy Institute of California.

The new survey indicates that gay marriage advocates who want to repeal California's Proposition 8 might have a fighting chance of prevailing, if they can qualify their measure for the November ballot.

Proposition 8, passed in 2008, places a prohibition on same-sex marriage in the state constitution and is being litigated in federal court. While one faction of gay marriage supporters is backing the repeal initiative, another group has contended that the climate for repeal must change more before trying to undo Proposition 8.

The PPIC poll found that support for gay marriage has reached 50 percent for the first time since the San Francisco-based think tank began polling on the issue in 2000. A sharp partisan division remains, with 64 percent of Democrats supporting same-sex marriage rights, while 67 percent of Republicans are opposed. However, 55 percent of independents are in favor.

The PPIC poll covered a wide range of political and social topics, and its findings largely mirrored those of a recent series of polls by the Field Research Corp. Among them:

• Businesswoman Meg Whitman has a very wide lead over Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, 61 percent to 11 percent, in their contest for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, and she's slightly ahead of the sole Democratic candidate, Attorney General Jerry Brown, 44 percent to 39 percent.

• Like the Field Poll, PPIC found that the economy, by a wide margin, is the political policy issue uppermost in the minds of voters.

• Another Republican business executive, Carly Fiorina, and former U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell are virtually tied for the U.S. Senate nomination, with Assemblyman Chuck DeVore far behind both. With the leaders in the mid-20 percent range, nearly half of Republicans say they are undecided. Either Campbell or Fiorina is virtually tied with Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer.

• By a 2-1 margin, California voters are inclined to vote for Proposition 14, which would create a new kind of primary election for political offices in which all candidates, regardless of party, would appear on the same ballot and the top two primary vote-getters would face each other in the November general election.

• Nearly 70 percent of Californians support immigration reform, including creating a pathway to citizenship for those in the country illegally.

• While 77 percent believe that the state budget crisis is a big problem, they divide evenly on whether the deficit should be mostly by spending cuts (39 percent) or a combination of cuts and new taxes (38 percent), but just 6 percent say it should be taxes alone.

• Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's approval rating among voters has plummeted to 25 percent, virtually identical to the Field Poll number, while the Legislature's performance wins approval of just 9 percent, the first time that figure has dropped into the single digits. Field had it at 13 percent.

• President Barack Obama's standing in California also has slipped, with approval now at 52 percent among voters, down 13 percentage points from a year ago. Congressional approval has also declined to 14 percent, half of what it was in January. But, oddly, 44 percent of voters like the job their own congressional members are doing.

Complete poll results on these and other issues may be found here.

The newest national academic test results once again find California's fourth- and eighth-graders stuck near the bottom in reading ability, outperforming only Washington, D.C., according to the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP).

While the reading achievement was the most dramatic outcome, California's kids also performed poorly in other measures of learning, drawing a scathing reaction from The Education Trust-West, an Oakland-based organization that analyzes public school data in California.

"Our state leaders insist that we have some of the highest standards in the nation," said Arun Ramanathan, the group's executive director. "What good are high standards if we fail to ensure that our students can master them?"

Los Angeles has the nation's most energy-efficient buildings among large cities for the second straight year and consequently the most floor space earning the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's "Energy Star" award, it was announced today.

San Francisco placed third on the 25-city EPA list while Sacramento was 16th and San Diego 17th. In addition to releasing the city-by-city rankings, available here, the EPA also announced a compilation of specific buildings meeting its Energy Star criteria, which can be found here.

The state's own Environmental Protection Agency building in Sacramento is one of those cited.

The once-soaring California housing market, whose collapse triggered the state's severe recession, appears to be undergoing another change.

The California Association of Realtors revealed today that home sales dropped 11.7 percent in February from a year earlier, but the median price jumped 14.1 percent. Meanwhile, the inventory of unsold homes on the market has also declined sharply, especially those of lower-price houses.

These trends may indicate that the burst of low-priced homes that were in foreclosure or otherwise distressed may be running its course and the market is returning to a more normal pattern.

Cutbacks in state school finance have generated a sharp uptick in the number of California school districts in financial distress, state schools Superintendent Jack O'Connell said today.

"Massive state budget cuts are crippling our public school system's ability to operate," O'Connell said as he released a list of 126 school districts that the state is watching closely, up 17 percent from a year earlier. "Public education in California received $17 billion less in state funding than anticipated over the last two budget years."

The California Taxpayers' Association contends in a new report that state government has wasted nearly $19 billion since 2000, contributing to its chronic budget crisis.

The report is based on official audits and investigations and media reports, citing 127 "quantifiable" instances of waste "from Caltrans' $3.2 billion Bay Bridge fiasco, to a $1 billion fine for failing to track child support payments, to welfare fraud estimated at $1.5 billion per year..."

Cal-Tax, an 84-year-old, Sacramento-based and business-backed organization, says that eliminating waste would not unto itself have balanced the budget, but "each case represents one example of California's inability to control spending during budget booms and busts.

"Had state officials engaged in more responsible spending oversight, the state budget would be billions closer to balance, and the people of California would benefit from more efficient, quality services."

The report, which adds more fuel to the partisan wrangles in the Capitol over how the deficits should be closed, can be found here.

California has the nation's fifth worst lawsuit climate, making it a less attractive venue for job-creating investment, an annual appraisal by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has found.

California was ranked 46th, ahead of only Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and No. 50 West Virginia, the chamber-sponsored Institute for Legal Reform declares, based on its survey of corporate lawyers.

"California needs more jobs, not more lawsuits," the institute's president, Lisa Rickard, said. "With one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, California's legal climate is discouraging new businesses and new jobs at a time when the state needs them most."

The report echoes positions by California business and legal reform groups in their perennial battles with Consumer Attorneys of California over the rules governing class action and personal injury suits, which are largely set in the Legislature but occasionally spill into ballot measure battles.

Not surprisingly, the California planitiffs' attorneys denounced the rankng. "We think, given the chamber's interest in limiting citizens' access to the justice system and the fact that the survey is conducted exclusively among attorneys who represent big business, this report is just another call for less oversight and accountability for the companies that fund this group," Consumer Attorneys of California said in a statement. "The American people have seen what happens when the Chamber's largest clients - like AIG, insurance and drug companies - are not held accountable."


California's low ranking included such factors as judicial rules that the organization said tend to favor plaintiffs in class-action suits and other disputes.

The full report is available here.

More than a third of California's adults and a nearly a sixth of its children suffer from chronic health conditions such as asthma, diabetes, high blood pressure, congestive heart failure or psychological distress, according to a new report from the California Healthcare Foundation.

The lengthy report, prepared by researchers at UCLA's Center for Health Policy Research, follows on another recent study indicating that California's ranks of the medically uninsured have grown sharply to more than 8 million persons. And both were issued as Congress considers President Barack Obama's historic overhaul of health coverage.

The percentage of female candidates elected to federal, state and local offices in California continues to fall significantly short of mirroring the gender split of the general population, according to a report released yesterday by the nonprofit California Women Lead.

California Women Lead, which supports female candidates running for and serving in office, found that though women make up 51 percent of the state population, they fill slightly more than a third of California's congressional seats and 27 percent of state legislative seats.

California's severe economic recession has sharply expanded the ranks of its medically uninsured residents, a new statistical study by UCLA's Center for Health Policy Research has found.

The study, based on enrollee data from private and public medical care programs, found that the uninsured under age 65 increased from 6.4 million in 2007 to 8.2 million last year, largely because of higher unemployment and cutbacks in employer-underwritten coverage. That's nearly a quarter of the under-65 population of the state.

"These estimates help us understand the scale of the damage inflicted on California over the last two years," Shana Alex Lavarreda, a co-author of the study, said in a statement. California has one of the nation's highest uninsured rates - a factor attributed to its seasonal and diverse economy - and because of its size has more uninsured residents than any other state

The study was released as Congress wrests with President Barack Obama's effort to expand coverage for the uninsured. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger attempted several years ago to win legislative approval of a similar expansion of health coverage, but his measure died in the state Senate after approval by the Assembly. It was opposed by conservatives who disliked more government expansion and liberals who wanted a single-payer, government-operated program.

The full study may be found here.

Exports through California ports continued their recent rebound in January, according to an analysis of new federal data by University of California trade analyst Jock O'Connell.

The value of exports through the state, $10.3 billion, was an 18.5 percent increase over the previous January and the third month of year-over-year increases. It was nearly identical to the nationwide increase in exports.

."Even so, we are now just getting back to the level of exporting we were at in early 2007, before the global financial and economic crisis sent international trade spiraling down," O'Connell said..

O'Connell said he anticipated continued export increases "if only because the economies of most of our major trading partners continue to expand," but added, "The most worrisome prospect involves the risk of fall-out from the financial turmoil now gripping the European Union and especially those countries in the euro zone."

Imports through California also showed a sharp increase, up 14.6 over the previous January to $23 billion.

The California Teachers Association has spent more than $200 million on campaign contributions and lobbying efforts in the last decade, leading what the Fair Political Practices Commission calls a "billion-dollar club" of moneyed political interests.

The FPPC's report, entitled "Big Money Talks," delves into the 25 biggest - at least in financial terms - political players in the state, which have collectively spent $1.3 billion on political action in the last 10 years.

"This tsunami of special interest spending drowns out the voices of average voters," FPPC chairman Ross Johnson said in a statement, "and intimidates political opponents and elected officials alike."

The $211.9 million spent by the CTA is nearly twice as much as the $107.5 million committed by the second-highest spender, the California State Council of Service Employees, but after those two union groups, the remaining 13 on the Top 15 list are all either business groups, such as No. 3 Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America ($104.9 million), individual corporations or casino-owning Indian tribes, which have three of the 15 top spots.

Collectively, the top 15 spent just over $1 billion during the decade, while the next 10 spent $271 million. They are also a mixture of unions, businesses and Indian tribes.

The report provides details on each big spender's campaign contributions and lobbying expenses, and identifies their spending on ballot measures, which generally consumed far more of the total than contributions to politicians or lobbying expenses. The CTA, for example, directed $144.1 million into ballot measures, including more than $50 million to defeat a series of 2005 measures sponsored by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The full report can be found at the FPPC's website here.

California has the nation's worst state tax administration practices, the Council on State Taxation, a corporate-backed and Washington-based tax study organization, says in a new report.

California scored a D-minus, the lowest score of any state, on an eight-criterion assessment, a notch lower than seven other "D" states. Alaska, at A-minus, scored the highest.

"It is a common truth that taxpayers will more fully and willingly comply with a tax system they perceive to be balanced, fair, and effective," the organization said. "Taxpayers operating in a system they perceive as oppressive, unfair, or otherwise biased are less likely to voluntarily comply. The clear message to state legislatures is that they must be sensitive to the compliance implications and competitiveness concerns created by poor tax administrative rules and ineffective tax appeal systems."

California was rated especially poorly on the independence of its tax dispute resolution process. A three-member board composed of politicians or their surrogates, the Franchise Tax Board, oversees personal and corporate tax collection. A five-member board of elected officials, the Board of Equalization, handles appeals from the Franchise Tax Board, directly collects sales taxes and oversees property tax administration.

The full COST report may be found here.

California's public colleges and universities will face enrollment demand of nearly 400,000 more students by the end of this decade and will need another $1.5 billion in operating revenue to handle the growth, a new report from the California Postsecondary Education Commission estimates.

"If this additional funding is not forthcoming, and if the systems implement enrollment cuts as they propose, as many as 278,000 students might lose the opportunity to attend college between 2009 and 2011 alone," says the report's cover letter.

The state's community colleges and state universities and the University of California now handle some 2.36 million undergraduate students and demand is expected to increase to 2.75 million by 2019, the report said.

It was presented to a commission meeting today in the midst of political angst in the Capitol over a deficit-riddled state budget and student protests against sharp increases in student fees. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed a constitutional amendment aimed at reversing the current proportion of state spending devoted to colleges and prisons. The ratio is now about 7 percent for colleges and 10 percent for prisons.

The commission's forecast did not include costs of building classrooms and other physical facilities, which would add more billions to the cost of handling the projected student load. The full report, entitled "Ready or Not, Here They Come," is available here.

California's non-agricultural payrolls increased by 32,500 workers in January, but the state's unemployment rate also increased, according to the monthly employment report from the state Employment Development Department.

The overall unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, increased from 12.3 percent in December to 12.5 percent in January despite the uptick of employment, largely due to a commensurate increase in the labor force.

The January rate was nearly three percentage points higher than in January, 2009, while the number of jobless workers, 2.3 million, was a half-million higher than a year earlier, and employment, 15.9 million, was 700,000 lower than a year earlier.

The full report is available here.

Thumbnail image for Thumbnail image for HA_Whitman.jpgFormer eBay boss Meg Whitman holds a commanding lead over Steve Poizner, her rival for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, and runs ahead of Democrat Jerry Brown, a new poll of "high-propensity" voters by Datamar, an El Cajon survey firm, has found.

Datamar took an unusual polling approach by tossing all three candidates for governor into the same polling pot. Whitman came out on top at 29.1 percent, followed by Brown, a former governor who is now attorney general, at 25.1 percent and Poizner, the state insurance commissioner, at 20.5 percent. The found 25.4 percent of voters undecided.

Datamar's partisan breakout found that Whitman enjoys support from 62.5 percent of Republicans and Poizner just 8.5 percent. Interestingly, Brown - who likely to formally announce his candidacy next week - drew backing from just 37.2 percent of Democrats while Poizner was favored by 31 percent of Democrats.

Datamar suggested that Poizner's strong Democratic support stemmed from Brown's not being a formal candidate and an anybody-but-Whitman sentiment among Democrats. She got just 8.2 percent of the Democratic support responses.

And what about independents, who are roughly 20 percent of the electorate and whose votes are critical in any close election?

Datamar found that independents are all over the map, with 25.7 percent favoring Whitman, 20.7 percent opting for Brown and 15 percent preferring Poizner.

California's Democrat-dominated congressional delegation is markedly more inclined to support immigration reform than Congress as a whole, a scorecard developed by the pro-reform Immigrants' List political action committee indicates.

Immigrants' List, based in Washington, was formed four years ago by a group of immigration attorneys and describes itself as "a bipartisan political action committee dedicated to promoting the fair and just immigration laws Americans desire." It uses campaign funds to support pro-reform congressional members and candidates, seeking to establish a congressional majority.

According to its scorecard, based on lawmakers' positions on a variety of immigration-related bills, nearly 35 percent of House members (150) support immigration reform, while more than 25 percent (112) are opposed and the remainder are classified as "may or may not support immigration reform."

The scorecard says that 29 of California's 53 congressional members, all Democrats, are supportive while 10, all Republicans, are opposed and the remaining 14, nine Republicans and five Democrats, are somewhere in the middle.

The full scorecard, including ratings in other states, is available here.

Two-thirds of California home sales last year resulted from homeowners' difficulty in making their mortgage payments or other financial problems, such as job losses, according to a new survey released by the California Association of Realtors.

"Tighter underwriting standards and a decline in equity continued to impact the market in 2009," CAR president Steve Goddard said in a statement accompanying the survey. "Many homeowners chose to sell last year because their adjustable-rate mortgage reset at the same time home prices were experiencing an unprecedented decline, leaving them with little equity and difficulty in qualifying for a refinance."

The CAR survey of homeowners found that, on average, homes sold for $20,958 less than the original asking price in 2009 and 44 percent of all sellers were first-time homeowners, a one-third jump from the previous year.

Difficulty in finding financing also hurt home sales, with 63 percent of houses with initial sales deals falling out of escrow prior to closing, with 70 percent of sellers in those circumstances citing "buyer could not get an acceptable mortgage" as the reason for sales falling through.

The full survey may be purchased here.

Three Central Valley cities rank high on Forbes magazine's new list of "America's most miserable cities," joining a host of Midwestern industrial cities hard hit by the recession.

Stockton, which topped Forbes' list of miserable cities in 2009, dropped to No. 2 behind Cleveland this year, while Modesto was No. 11 and Sacramento No. 17.

The survey covered the nation's 200 most populous metropolitan areas and covered a number of specific topics.

California voters are angry, worried about the economy, and distrust their state politicians so much that they strongly believe that all incumbents should be voted out of office as soon as possible, a new poll indicates.

Conducted by El Cajon-based Datamar early this month, the new survey is right in line of others that take the civic pulse of California and confirm anew that this year's elections could be a giant comeuppance for the political establishment.

"Still mired in the deepest recession in 70 years, a collapsed housing bubble, a higher than the national average unemployment rate, and seemingly endless budget battles and impasses in Sacramento, voters
are disenchanted with the state's political process and are searching for answers," Datamar said.

Those responding to the Datamar poll rate the economy as the state's most important issue, and show massive support, just under 90 percent, for governmental reform, especially overhauling the initiative system and removing impediments to action by the Legislature, whose approval rating barely makes it into double digits.

Click here to read the full poll.

Silicon Valley, like the rest of California, is still reeling from the housing meltdown and the subsequent recession, but a "well-being index" developed by the Gallup polling and research organization says it's the best large metropolitan area in which to live.

That said, the San Jose area's index rating, 69.2, still is far from a 100 perfect score in an evaluation that includes six subcategories - emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviors, and access to basic necessities.

Las Vegas ranked last in the survey of major metro areas. The San Francisco-Oakland area was 7th best and San Diego was 13th.

Among medium-sized areas, Boulder, CO, came in first and California's best showing was the Santa Rosa-Petaluma region at 5th with the Santa Barbara-Santa Maria area 6th. At the other end of the scale, Modesto had the nation's 5th worst ranking (Ft. Smith, AR, was dead-last) while Bakersfield was the 14th worst.

The full report is available here.

After months of decline and stagnation, trade through California ports ticked upward in December, according to an analysis of Department of Commerce data by the University of California's trade adviser.

Adviser Jock O'Connell said that exports increased by 12 percent over December 2008, reaching $11.6 billion. It was also a 6.1 percent increase from November.

"As encouraging as these new numbers may appear, they only mark the start of a recovery from two years of sharp decline," said O'Connell."We are now essentially where we were with exports at the end of 2006.

Calfiornia ranks third only to Nevada and Michigan in a new Associated Press calculation of economic stress and seven California counties are on the Top 10 list of the nation's most economically stressed counties.

The average American county had an economic stress level of 10.8 on a 0-100 scale in December, based on such factors as unemployment, home foreclosure and bankruptcy rates, but the most nation's stressed county was Imperial in California's southeastern corner.

Imperial, much of which sits below sea level, is dominated by large-scale agriculture and has the state's highest Latino population. Its economic stress level by the AP's calculation was 31.57, followed my Merced County at 26.44. Lyon Conty, NV, placed third, followed by five California coutnies: San Benito, Sutter, Yuba, Stanislaus and San Joaquin. Lake County was No. 14 and Riverside County No. 18.

California's economic stress level of 16.5 was third only to Nevada at 21.08 and Michigan at 17.43.

At the other end of the scale, North Dakota was the nation's least stressed state at 4.99, with neighboring South Dakota second least at 5.47 and Nebraska at 5.63. The nation's least stressed county is Nebraska's Lancaster at just 5.2. Every other county on the 20 least stressed list were in the Midwest, Virginia, or Wyoming.

When it comes to charitable giving via the Internet, Berkeley appears to be California's most generous larger city and has the nation's seventh highest per capita donation level, according to Convio, a Texas firm that organizes Internet-based charity drives.

Fittingly, perhaps, Convio maintains its West Coast headquarters in Berkeley, whose residents contributed $10.64 per person via the Internet in 2009.

Convio assembled data for all 273 of the nation's cities above 100,000 in population, many of which are in California. Alexandria, Va., ranked first at $20.24 per capita. Berkeley was the only California city in the top 10, but San Francisco was 12th at $9.24, Pasadena was 26th, Santa Clara 31st and San Diego 40th.

Remaining California cities varied widely in their Internet giving with El Monte at 269th, just four places from the bottom, at 24 cents per capita. Among the largest California cities, Sacramento was 63rd, San Jose 76th, Long Beach 154th, Los Angeles 184th ($1.72), Fresno 232nd, Santa Ana 239th and San Bernardino 268th, just ahead of El Monte.

The full list and a detail-filled spreadsheet are available here.

The New York Times posted a chart today listing the credit ratings of several dozen countries as well as all 50 states, as determined by Standard & Poor's.

At A-, California still has the worst credit rating of all 50 states. Illinois comes closest to California with an A+ rating.

Countries in the Times' chart with the same A- rating as California include Estonia, Libya and Poland. That's better than Thailand and Greece (BBB+) but not as strong as Botswana, the Czech Republic and Israel (A).

California officials are often quick to point out that the state has never defaulted on repaying its bond debt. An A rating is assigned to entities with a "strong capacity to meet debts but somewhat more susceptible to adverse changes in economic conditions."

The James Madison Institute is a libertarian think tank in Florida, and the cover of its latest Journal is a mock Central Intelligence Agency report on "the world's top 10 failed states."

journalimage.jpg

It lists Somalia as the No. 1 failed state and adds eight other Third World nations before it gets to No. 10 - the Golden State of California - and asks "Will Florida join the list of failed states?"

It's the latest in a recent string of out-of-state publications riffing on California's social, political economic and budgetary woes and warning that its civic disease could spread.

J. Robert McClure, the institute's president, writes that "the jury is still out as to whether Florida - at the end of the decade ahead - will be prospering like Texas or foundering like California, Wisconsin, New York, and other states where government evidently exists primarily for the benefit of the governing, and onerous taxes and regulations consistently drive away the most productive citizens, harming the economy and eroding the quality of life."

New car sales plummeted in California during 2009, dropping 28.3 percent from 2008, and barely topping 1 million, a level not seen in more than three decades.

Although new car sales declined nationally last year, California's drop was markedly larger than the national trend, according to a year-end report from the California New Car Dealers Association.

Hundreds of auto dealerships have closed in California in the last few years as sales dropped to less than half the levels of mid-decade, and the impact on both state and local coffers has been heavy. A $25,000 car generates about $2,000 in state and local sales taxes, so a million-unit drop in sales means a $2 billion loss in sales tax revenues.

Sales of "Big 3" domestic brands declined even faster last year, down 36.4 percent, and both General Motors and Chrysler lost market share while Ford's increased slightly.

Despite the bad sales news, the association sees a brighter future. It notes that while new car sales slid 39.6 percent in the first half of the year, the decline was just 13.7 percent in the second half and it projects a slight uptick in total sales this year, from 1,040,000 vehicles in 2009 to 1,145,000 in 2010, as the economy improves.

The full report, include a model-by-model breakdown of sales, is available here.

Republicans Tom Campbell and Meg Whitman fare well in a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Campbell, a former Silicon Valley congressman who shifted his political ambition this month from governor to U.S. senator, already enjoys a strong lead over GOP rivals Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore, the poll found, and is locked in a near-tie with Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer.

Whitman, former CEO of eBay, has increased her lead over Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner among Republicans with Campbell out of the contest, PPIC's survey found, and trails the sole Democratic candidate, Attorney General Jerry Brown, by only a few points.

PPIC's results generally reflect those of another new statewide poll by the Field Research Corp., but came up with closer results in the theoretical gubernatorial and senatorial matchups.

"PawPac," which describes itself as "California's political action committee for animals," wanted to enact seven bills during the 2009 legislative session, including a highly controversial measure that would require spaying and neutering of pets.

PawPac had just one success, a bill to curb "tail docking"of cows. The other six were either stalled or, if passed, vetoed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. But the seven generated voting records from which PawPac created a scorecard to rate politicians on their support levels.

Schwarzenegger, who vetoed four PawPac bills, not surprisingly was given an "F" grade, and Sen. Dean Florez, D-Shafter, who carried both the "tail docking" bill and the neutering measure, got a "A-plus."

Forty-eight other legislators, all Democrats, also received "A" or "A-plus" grades, while 26, all Republicans, were given "Fs." The other 45 had mixed records on the seven bills.

The full PawPac scorecard may be found here.

California's local streets and roads are deteriorating due to lack of maintenance and rehabilitation and need an additional $71 billion in work over the next 10 years, a survey commissioned by local government groups concludes.

"California's local streets and roads are on the edge of a cliff," the survey, commissioned by the League of California Cities, the California State Association of Counties and the County Engineers Association of California says.

On a scale of zero (failed) to 100 (excellent), California's local roadways stand at 68, placing them in the "at risk" category, and the report projects that the rating will fall to 58 in 10 years and 48 by 2033 if transportation funding remains at current levels.

"This investment is critical for the safety and mobility of the traveling public, farm to market needs, multimodal needs, and commerce," Chris McKenzie executive director of the League of California Cities," said. "Cities and counties own and operate 81 percent of California roads. It's where every trip begins and ends."

The Federal Highway Administration has said that California's roadway conditions are the second worst in the nation, trailing only those in New Jersey.

The report was issued as local governments and their allies crank up a signature-gathering campaign for a ballot measure that would shield local treasuries from raids by the state. The full report is available here.

The Advocate, a widely read gay publication, lists the nation's "15 gayest burgs" in its new issue and, perhaps surprisingly, just one California community made the list.

It's not San Francisco, widely believed to be the nation's gayest large city, nor even West Hollywood or Laguna Beach, two smaller communities with large gay populations.

It's San Diego, which was ranked No. 14 by what The Advocate describes as "intrepid amateur sociologist Mike Albo."

"Why San Diego when L.A. is so close?," The Advocate blurb on San Diego asks rhetorically. "The question almost answers itself. San Diego has always been more bi-friendly, mellower, less snooty, and a place to which L.A. gays frequently escape. Black's Beach is a famous nude sunning spot, and there's even an annual gay rodeo."

The Advocate's rankings were based on such factors as a community's ratio of same-sex couples, the state's receptiveness to gay marriage, the number of gay elected officials, the ratio of gay bars, and even the local preferences for gay films in Netflix orders.

Atlanta scored The Advocate's No. 1 ranking. The full list is available here.

California's severe recession and its chronic budget crisis are having a double-barreled impact on the state's K-12 schools, a new report by UCLA's Institute for Democracy, Education and Access (IDEA) concludes.

While the recession increases the stress on families, especially low-income families, the budget crisis is reducing state and local spending on education, making it more difficult for schools to cope, the study - the latest in an annual series entitled the California Educational Opportunity Report.

Chalk up another first for California.

ProPublica, a public-interest journalism service, surveys state unemployment insurance fund deficits and finds that California, by far, has dug itself into the nation's deepest hole.

With unemployment running over 12 percent, the state has already borrowed more than $6 billion from the federal government to keep unemployment insurance checks flowing. That's nearly three times as much as New York, the second biggest borrower of UI funds.

ProPublica notes that California began getting itself into UI trouble when, under former Gov. Gray Davis, it sharply increased UI benefits without raising payroll taxes on employers. Some states have already boosted such taxes, but Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature, preoccupied with state budget deficits, have largely ignored the mounting UI debt.

An interactive map that gives state-by-state details on UI solvency is available here.

After months of decline, exports through California's ports increased slightly in November from the same month of 2008, according to an analysis of new Department of Commerce data.

The analysis by University of California trade advisor Jock O'Connell pointed out that the fractional gain in exports traffic through California, from $10.75 billion in November, 2008, to $10.95 billion last November, is much less than thje robust overall increased in U.S. export trade as the nation emerges from recession. And November's number was also lower than October's.

"Even after adjusting for inflation, this November's export total represents a slight gain over November of 2008," O'Connell said. "Still, when overall U.S. exports increased by 11.1 percent during the same year-over-year period, California's accomplishment is scarcely worth toasting."

Later today, O'Connell corrected his data. "Unfortunately," he said, "I transposed some numbers in my earlier calculations and, as a result, inflated the increase in overall U.S. exports. In actuality, U.S. exports in November were off by 2.9 percent from the preceding November."

The state's exports of manufactured goods were down 2.1 percent from last November. By contrast, exports of agricultural goods and other non-manufactured products jumped by 29.8 percent over the same period, while re-exports of goods previously imported into the state showed no real gain.

"We've peeking around an important corner here, not fully turning it," O'Connell said.

There's also a marked difference in activity between Southern California ports and those in the northern part of the state. While the number of loaded containers leaving ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach increased by 11.4 percent from the previous year, the Port of Oakland's export trade jumped by 39.7 percent.

A similar discrepancy was noted in export shipments from Los Angeles International Airport, up 4.6 percent, and those from San Francisco International, up 11.7 percent.

Los Angeles, home to millions of illegal immigrants who labor in its concentration of low-wage industries, is a hotbed of labor law violation, according to a new study by UCLA's Institute for Research on Labor and Employment.

Researchers surveyed workers not only in Los Angeles but in New York and Chicago and found levels of what they call "wage theft" to be substantially higher in the former.

"The survey found that low-wage workers in Los Angeles regularly experience violations of basic laws that mandate a minimum wage and overtime pay and are frequently forced to work off the clock or during their breaks," the report's executive summary says. "Other violations documented in the survey include lack of required payroll documentation, being paid late, tip stealing, and employer retaliation. In nearly every case, the violation rates are higher in Los Angeles than in New York and Chicago."

Ignoring wage and hour laws and worker's compensation statutes is costly to workers, the study found. "Assuming a full-year work schedule, these workers lost an average of $2,070 annually due to workplace violations, out of total annual earnings of $16,536," the report said.

The full study can be found here.

The well documented and oft cited decline of California's white population and concurrent increases in the state's Latino and Asian residents appear to have another aspect: men are outgaining women.

California's women slightly outnumbered its men in the 2000 census but the Census Bureau's latest population estimates indicate that men have edged ahead in the gender race.

California's worst recession since the Great Depression appears to have bottomed out but its effects, including high unemployment, will continue to be felt for many months, says the University of the Pacific's Business Forecasting Center.

"Although the recession is technically over, it will feel like a recession in California for another year," said Jeff Michael, director of the center. "The state's unemployment rate will stay above 12 percent for most of 2010."

Michael also noted that even though the recession may be technically over for the state as a whole, it will continue in many communities, especially those hardest hit by the housing industry meltdown, such as Sacramento. The center predicts that San Francisco, San Jose and Fresno will see faster recovery because their housing markets were not hit as hard.

Michael expects the state's unemployment rate to increase somewhat in 2010 to nearly 13 percent before declining in 2011. The recession has already boosted joblessness by more than 1 million and he expects employment to decline further in 2010 before making fractional gains in 2011.

California's oft-documented social and economic ills have a new symptom: A declining level of literacy, at least as measured by an annual study by Central Connecticut State University.

Every major California city fell in the 2009 rankings, which are based on such factors as newspaper circulation, the number of bookstores, library resources, periodical publications, educational attainment and Internet availability.

From Dan Walters

Federal and state demographers have conducted a polite argument over California's population for nearly a decade and now are more than 1.5 million persons apart - a dispute that may be settled by the 2010 census.

Last week, the state Department of Finance estimated that California had gained 353,000 residents during the 12-month period that ended on June 30 and that its population stood at 38.5 million. On Wednesday, the Census Bureau said the state gained 381,000 residents during that same period but had just under 37 million residents.

The dispute centers on how many people moved from California to other states during the decade. The Census Bureau says it detected a large out-migration while the state's demographers believe that the outflow was much smaller. Both agencies use indirect indicators, such as driver's licenses, income tax filings, to make their estimates.

Next year's census may settle the debate, and the political and financial stakes for California are huge. The difference between the two numbers would be the equivalent of two seats in Congress, for example, and many federal payments to the state are based on population data. Pre-census estimates by outside experts believe that the state's largest-in-the-nation congressional delegation, now 53 seats, could wind up losing one, gaining one or remaining the same, depending on how the census turns out.

The Census Bureau said that only Texas outgained California numerically during the 2008-09 period, adding 478,000 residents to end at 24.8 million, The full state-by-state report is available here.

Recession-wracked California saw one of the lowest population growth levels in history during the fiscal year that ended June 30, the state Department of Finance reported today.

California's population grew by less than one percent, adding an estimated 353,000 new residents, during the 12-month period, the department's demographers believe. The only years of lower growth since 1900 were during another period of deep recession, 1994 to 1996, when an estimated million-plus Californians left the state.

A sharply decreased level of foreign immigration, both legal and illegal, was apparently the major reason for the dropoff in population growth. The department says net migration - those moving into the state minus those that moved out - was just 37,000. It estimates that 179,000 foreign immigrants came to California during the year while 142,000 residents left for elsewhere. But the state's production of babies, its primary source of growth, remained high at 547,000, offset by 231,000 deaths.

Overall growth since the 2000 census is 4.6 million, the department says, and now stands at 38.5 million. The new estimates continue, however, a dispute between the state and the U.S. Census Bureau, which believes there are a million fewer Californians, primarily because the feds calculate that there's been far more outward migration than the state counts. The 2010 census apparently will resolve the issue, which affects the state's subventions from the federal government and how many congressional seats it will have.

The full Department of Finance report is available here.

California, which has the nation's worst traffic congestion and its second worst pavement conditions, is falling nearly $11 billion a year short of adequate spending on streets, highways, bridges and public transportation, a Washington-based transportation advocacy group says.

The report was issued by The Road Information Program (TRIP), which lobbies for more federal, state and local spending on transportation infrastructure, and is called "Future Mobility in California."

It notes that the state Department of Transportation (Caltrans) has declared a need for spending $5.5 billion a year for the next decade on highways, but only $1.5 billion a year is projected to be available. Meanwhile, the report estimates that public transportation systems need another $8.6 billion a year, but only $1.7 billion will be available annually. The cumulative shortfall, therefore, is $10.9 billion a year.

In addition to the statewide shortfall in transportation funding, TRIP's report contains detailed data on the state's six largest urban areas - Los Angeles-Orange counties, Riverside-San Bernardino counties, San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco-Oakland and Sacramento.

"Even with the efforts of the governor and the Legislature over the past several years, we still have a huge gap -- which this report clearly shows -- and it's hitting the public where it hurts," Mark Watts, executive director of Transportation California, an affiliated advocacy group, said in a statement.

"We are short nearly $11 billion annually to meet our transportation needs," Watts said. "This report shows that our failure to close this transportation investment deficit is costing us nearly four times that much."

Former eBay honcho Meg Whitman continues to lead the two other Republican candidates for governor next year and trails presumptive Democratic nominee Jerry Brown by only a few points, a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California has found.

Whitman's 32 percent support level among Republican voters is a big lead over either former Rep. Tom Campbell at 12 percent and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner at 8 percent, but the highest proportion, 44 percent, are the undecided Republicans.

While Brown, a former two-term governor who is now state attorney general, leads all three Republicans among all voters in the survey, his support remains well below 50 percent. In a theoretical matchup with Whitman, Brown leads 43 percent to 37 percent. His margins against Campbell and Poizner are considerably wider.

While all that is interesting to political junkies, however, most Californians still haven't focused on who they may want to succeed Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger next year.

"Voters have more immediate concerns than who is going to be the next governor," PPIC's president, Mark Baldassare, said in a statement analyzing the poll results. "Despite all the advertising in this early stage of the campaign, Republican primary voters are more likely to say they are undecided than to favor one of the three GOP candidates. At the same time, the Democrats' likely candidate falls short of majority support when matched up against the Republican contenders."

Whitman has spent heavily from her personal fortune on consulting advice and advertising, but has refused to debate the other two Republicans and almost never talks to California political reporters. Poizner, also a wealthy former Silicon Valley executive, has just committed $15 million more to his campaign while Campbell has scant personal or political resources.

The PPIC poll covered a wide variety of issues, finding that Californians remain very concerned about the state's recession-wracked economy (61 percent say it's the top issue facing the state), that President Barack Obama still enjoys high approval ratings (61 percent), that barely half (52 percent) support Obama's health care plans and that Schwarzenegger and the Legislature continue to have record-low approval ratings.

The full poll, including early takes on 2010 ballot measures, is accessible here.

California faces at least another year of recession, and the state budget is so far upside down that it's now "more likely to default than not," on some of its debt, a new economic forecast from California Lutheran University's economists declares.

The director of Cal Lutheran's new Center for Economic Research and Forecasting, Bill Watkins, cites the state's budget problems, its high regulatory and operating costs and its deficit infrastructure as impediments to rapid recovery.

"We expect California's economy to continue to contract, slowly, through the first three quarters of 2010," the forecast says. "However, the contraction will be a bit less each quarter. By the fourth quarter, the state's gross product growth could be mildly positive. Output is then likely to slowly improve, but at an improving rate, through 2011.

"Job growth will lag economic activity. We don't expect to see California gain jobs until the second half of 2011. Consequently, unemployment will probably remain in double digits through 2011. Wages, by contrast, will likely show some gains almost immediately, but we don't expect to see California's average wage reach its pre-recession levels within the forecast horizon."

Despite the state's chronic fiscal woes and concerns about its mounting debt load, its top economic officials have consistently told investors and the public that the state is in no danger of defaulting on its bond payments, which by law have a high priority claim on the state's revenue streams.

Watkins and other members of the Cal Lutheran economic team migrated this year from the University of California, Santa Barbara's Economic Forecast Project. Data from the Cal Lutheran center can be purchased here.

When Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislators fashioned the latest version of the state budget in July, they inserted a $3 billion fudge factor on revenues, cutting income expectations by that amount on the assumption that the economy was continuing to decline.

The latest monthly bulletin from the state Department of Finance, however, says that through the first five months of the 2009-10 fiscal year, revenues are running more than a billion dollars under even that lowered expectation.

Personal income, corporate income, sales and vehicle taxes all fellow below forecasts in November, the department said, but the bulletin found "encouraging" news on the employment front, with the first month-to-month increase in jobholders in 17 months. Even so, the unemployment rate increased due to growth in the labor force.

The revenue drop forms one component in the current forecast by the Legislature's budget analyst that the state faces a $6-plus billion deficit in the current budget and a $14-plus billion gap in the 2010-11 budget.

The Department of Finance report is available here.

The cost of health insurance provided by California employers has risen five times as fast as overall inflation since 2002, according to a new survey by the California HealthCare Foundation.

Health insurance premiums increased by 117.5 percent during the period, says the California Employer Health Benefits Survey, while the state's overall cost of living rate was 23.1 percent, including a 7.5 percent gain in the last year.

The survey also found that employers are shifting some of the added costs to their workers and/or shifting to less extensive coverage. This year, for instance, more than 20 percent of covered workers in small firms had deductibles of $1,000 or more, three times as many as in 2002.

Finally, the survey revealed that six percent of employers say they are "very likely" to drop coverage completely, up from 1 percent in 2008, 27 percent say they are likely to increase employees' co-insurance and co-pay burdens, and 44 percent of large employers and 20 percent of small ones say they are "very likely" to increase employees' share of insurance costs.

The full survey can be found here.

California just missed being labeled a "judicial hellhole" by the American Tort Reform Foundation, a business-backed group that lobbies for changes in the laws and procedures governing lawsuits that allege injuries.

Instead, the state was placed on the organization's "watch list" for what the Washington-based organization termed "poorly reasoned California court decisions (that) have placed the state's citizens and business owners in jeopardy."

It did not specify what those decisions were, but added, "California businesses are concerned that they will be unfairly hit with consumer and disabled-access lawsuits by those who have chosen litigation as a lifestyle. Plaintiffs' lawyers have gamed the system to take advantage of procedural rules, and brand-name product manufacturers find themselves on the hook for injuries from competing generic products."

The six worst jurisdictions for defendants in lawsuits, ATRF said, are New York City and New Mexico's appellate courts, both of which are new to the list, and "perennials" South Florida, West Virginia, Illinois' Cook County and Atlantic County, NJ.

Although California made the watch list, the organization added, "Our report also applauds courts in several states that held the line on damages for 'emotional harm,' and we otherwise appreciatively cite recent positive court rulings in California, Maryland, New Jersey, Vermont and Wisconsin."

The full report may be found here.

Workers' compensation insurance costs continued to decline in California this year but could be pushed upward by two landmark decisions by the Workers' Compensation Appeals Board, a new report indicates.

California's current year state budget deficit, $6.3 billion, is by far the largest of any state, according to a new report by the National Conference of State Legislatures, but in relative terms many other state budgets are in worse condition.

California's 2009-10 deficit, as projected by the Legislature's budget analyst, is 7.1 percent of spending, but other states range as high as 18.5 percent in Oklahoma and 18 percent in Arizona, the NCSL survey of states found.

The Legislative Analyst's Office has predicted California faces a $20.7 billion deficit over the next 18 months.

The Washington, D.C.-based Brookings Institution released a report today detailing how Americans -- including Californians -- are opting to stay in the state they live in at the highest rate since World War II.

"Migration away from areas stretching from San Francisco to San Diego, where high housing prices fueled 'middle-class flight' to the interior West, has now retrenched as home foreclosures rise and job opportunities diminish in states like Nevada and Arizona," according to the report, called The Great American Migration Slowdown: Regional and Metropolitan Dimensions.

"During the middle part of the decade," the report said, "younger couples and singles with moderate education levels dominated the groups leaving California for lower-cost housing and job opportunities in surrounding states. Now, the state seems to be retaining many of these same groups, particularly younger whites and Hispanics who are married couples or singles, as housing cost pressures ease."

"College graduates flipped from considerable net out-migration to modest
net in-migration, as the housing market and job opportunities dried up in other parts of the country," the report also found.

The study crunched data from various sources, including the Current Population Survey, the American Community Survey and other Census estimates as well as migration flows estimated by the Internal Revenue Service.

Click here for the full report, with a California-specific section on page 9.

The Los Angeles suburb of Acadia is the best city in California for raising children, BusinessWeek magazine says, "because of its low crime and excellent schools."

It was the second straight year that Arcadia won top marks among California cities of 50,000 or more in the BusinessWeek rankings. "The population of Arcadia includes a number of peacocks that hang out in the neighborhood near the Los Angeles County Arboretum & Botanical Garden," the magazine said. Two other LA suburbs, Monterey Park and Diamond Bar, were California runners-up.

Chalk up another first for California. EBossWatch, a website devoted to publicizing bad workplace managers in public and private employment, has placed three Californians on its list of the 25 worst bosses in the U.S. and Canada, more than any other state.

As rated by a panel of experts, based on news accounts and other data, Tom Cable, head coach of the Oakland Raiders, was designated as the seventh worst boss in North America due to his much-publicized altercation with an assistant coach that left the latter with a broken jaw.

No. 11 on the list is Maria Olvera, human resources director of the Tracy city government. Two city workers have filed a complaint alleging that they were fired after complaining of Olvera's "obscenities and loud and abusive language."

No. 13 is Andy Lee, a supervisor at California Pizza Kitchen in Palo Alto, who was sued by a former underling for harassment. The former employee was fired when she complained about abusive behavior, the website says.

The full list of bad bosses is available here.

Exports through California's sea and airports during October increased from the previous month but remain well under those of October 2008, a University of California analysis of monthly trade data concludes.

"While still in serious condition, the patient's health is gradually improving," Jock O'Connell, a trade advisor to UC's Sacramento Center, said. "During the spring and early summer of this year, California's export trade had been off as much as twenty-five percent from the preceding year."

The state's merchandise exports in October totaled just over $11.08 billion, up 7 percent from September but still 10.9 percent below the $12.44 billion in goods the state shipped abroad in October 2010.

October was the 12th consecutive month in which California posted lower year-to-year export totals. It was also the lowest October total since 2005.

California's state university system will face a surge of enrollment demand in the next half-decade, according to a new statistical study by the California Postsecondary Education Commission.

Enrollment demand will jump from 362,000 students in 2008 to 420,000 by 2015, then level off as the college-age population hits a plateau, CPEC says in the study, which is to be presented to a commission meeting next week. But that assumes that college fees will be reasonable and the state provides enough support to fully fund all of the classes being sought.

Budget cuts have reduced 2009 enrollment by about 4,000 students and are projected to cut enrollment by another 20,000 next year. The state university system board recently raised fees sharply as well.

The report was prepared in conjunction with the Legislature's review of the 50-year-old Master Plan for Higher Education. "The state is not delivering the promise of the master plan any more," CPEC chair John Perez said in a statement as the report was released. "CSU is limiting access and raising fees in order to keep afloat. We no longer have the open, affordable, state university system that we once had in California."

The full report, the latest in a series called "Ready or Not, Here They Come," is available here.

California was once a national leader among in programs to discourage children from smoking but has dropped to 25th place in its commitment to anti-smoking education, a consortium of health groups said today.

The Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids includes such groups as the American Cancer Society, the American Lung Association and the American Heart Association. It says that while California will collect $1.75 billion this year from the 1998 national lawsuit settlement with tobacco companies, it's spending just 4.5 percent of that on programs to prevent tobacco use. And, the organization says, tobacco companies will spend more than $800 million to market products in California this year.

African-American women are three times more likely to miscarry if they live near freeways or other heavily traveled roadways, a new state study has found.

Counterintuitively, non-smoking pregnant women are also substantially more likely to miscarry if they live near heavy traffic than are smokers who also live near freeways, the study determined.

The study, co-authored by researchers from the state Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA), the state Department of Public Health and the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, was based on interviews of nearly 5,000 women in the East Bay Area, Santa Clara and San Bernardino counties as they sought pregnancy care at Kaiser Permanente hospitals. It has been published in Environmental Health Perspectives, a scientific journal.

"This study adds weight to the growing body of evidence that constant, heavy exposure to traffic exhaust significantly increases the risk of reproductive harm," Dr. Joan Denton, OEHHA director, said in a statement. The OEHHA research is the first published study of the effect of residential traffic exposure on the risk of miscarriage, according to Dr. Shelley Green, who led the study.

The survey of residential, medical and pregnancy history was limited to volunteers who were no more than 12 weeks pregnant, about 9 percent of whom had miscarried, which is within the normal statistical range. Researchers related the miscarriages in relation to residential proximity to roads whose average traffic was at least 15,200 vehicles per day.

Pregnant women who lived within 55 yards of busy roads showed a higher rate of miscarriage compared with women who lived further away from roads with heavy traffic. While the association with high traffic raised miscarriage rates by 50 percent for nonsmokers, their smoking neighbors had a 10 percent higher risk of miscarriage as well.

The full study report can be found here.

Thirty percent of California's households lack the income to cover "bare bones" living expenses, according to a new statistical study released by United Ways of California, a charitable fundraising consortium.

The study, which relies on Census Bureau data, was conducted by the Center for Women's Welfare at the University of Washington and is entitled "Overlooked and Undercounted 2009." It goes beyond the decades-old federal method of calculating poverty and includes not only the traditional data on housing, food and shelter costs, but costs of transportation, child care and taxes. It does not, however, count money for restaurant food, retirement savings, emergencies or loan payments.

"While the federal poverty level identifies only 10 percent of California residents as poor, this report reveals the extent to which many more Californians are struggling to meet basic needs than most people realize," said Peter Manzo, United Ways of California president. "Because the majority of government and social service programs rely on variations of the federal poverty level, a large and diverse group of California residents are routinely overlooked and undercounted.

"Many of these hidden poor earn too much income to qualify for most social service programs, but they still struggle to meet their most basic needs, especially as the costs of living continue to rise."

California, Minnesota and the District of Columbia are the only school systems to receive "A" grades on their receptivity to charter schools from the Washington-based Center for Education Reform, a pro-charter school organization.

The state-by-state evaluation was released in response to Race to the Top, President Barack Obama's education reform initiative that includes more emphasis on charter schools, which are public schools that operate independently of school district administration. Its release also coincides with the state Assembly's debate this week on how to qualify California for Race to the Top grants, in which expansion of charter schools plays a central role.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, among others, favors lifting a state cap on charter schools but teacher unions are generally reluctant. But without loosening or lifting the cap, California may be ineligible for the new federal grants.

"Every state's education law has certain legal components that play key roles in deciding whether that state does what its law's title suggests--to provide all children with access to the highest-quality schooling opportunities possible," said Jeanne Allen, president of the Center for Education Reform. "Some states have been pioneers in this effort, and others are far behind. California's law is excellent and serves as a model for the nation."

The full state-by-state report, including details on California, is available here.

California could cover its annual budget deficits by plucking "low-hanging fruit" of tax changes that would increase state revenues by $21.1 billion a year, the California Tax Reform Association declared today.

The liberal organization's reference is a play on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's recent comment that the state has exhausted the "low-hanging fruit" of spending cuts and bookkeeping gimmicks while still facing stubborn budget deficits.

The Legislature's budget analyst, Mac Taylor, has declared that the state faces annual deficits of about $20 billion even if it closes a $20-plus shortfall in the remainder of this fiscal year and all of the next. The tax reform group says the state's finances could be fixed by eliminating some tax loopholes and raising selective taxes, avoiding general tax increases.

It said that "loopholes, untaxed windfalls, tax breaks with no benefits, taxes on the very rich and sin taxes, the taxes with little or no impact on economic recovery," have not been tapped and lists 10 tax changes that would raise, it says, $21.1 billion a year.

The largest, scored at $4 billion, would be to reinstate an 11 percent tax on incomes of the top 1 percent of income taxpayers. Others include imposing an oil severance tax, increasing liquor and cigarette taxes and closing new corporate tax loopholes.

The full Tax Reform Association paper is available here.

California is a case study in mismanagement of state government finances, a new report from the Pew Center on the States says, but nine other states could be following the same path to virtual insolvency.

The report, released today and entitled "Beyond California: States in Fiscal Peril," cites Arizona, Rhode Island, Michigan, Oregon, Nevada, Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and Wisconsin as states with budget problems similar to California. Pew's Web site on the report invites readers to compare their own states to California.

"They share important characteristics with California, but they may not be destined to follow in the Golden State's footsteps," Pew says. "Some states in this report already have responded aggressively to their budget crisis, although it is too soon to tell whether their actions will put them on solid fiscal footing."

Much of the report focuses on how California came to face multi-billion-dollar deficits for much of this decade. " Adding annually to the budget problems," it says, "California lawmakers since the late 1990s have increased spending by more than the rise in state population or inflation. In the meantime, policymakers rarely set aside in the rainy day fund the 5 percent of general funds permitted by law, giving the state less of a cushion during lean times."

Despite enacting billions of dollars in temporary taxes, cutting spending on schools and other programs and enacting a series of bookkeeping gimmicks, the state faces a nearly $21 billion deficit in the remainder of the current fiscal year and all of the next and ongoing annual shortfalls in the $20 billion range after that, according to a recent report by the Legislature's budget analyst, Mac Taylor.

The full Pew report is available here.

California may have the lowest credit rating of any state, thanks to its chronic budget deficits, but the state's cities fare well vis-à-vis those of other states in financial health, a new report by Standard & Poor's indicates.

The venerable credit rating agency's latest listing of 169 "AAA" cities includes 25 in California, the most of any state (Massachusetts is second with 21), and 12 of the 25 are new to the list this year. California's "AAA" cities tend to be predominately white, affluent communities such as Mill Valley in Marin County and Beverly Hills. Only one large California city, San Jose, made the list.

That was not especially true in other states, where several larger cities, such as Minneapolis, Denver, San Antonio, Phoenix and Charlotte, made the list. Cities were graded on such criteria as debt ratios, personal income and property values.

The full report is available here.

California's poverty rate is almost exactly that of the nation as a whole, the Census Bureau says in its latest massive data release, while its median household income of $57,988 is higher than all but a dozen states.

The poverty rate, calculated for 2008 based on Census Bureau surveys, is 13.2 percent, while California's is 13.3 percent. Within the state, however, there are very wide variances, ranging from a high of 23.6 percent in Del Norte County, in the state's northwestern corner, to a low of 6.7 percent in Placer County east of Sacramento.

The poverty rates were calculated by the Census Bureau's traditional method, and California's is roughly in the middle of the states, but the National Academy of Sciences has proposed a more detailed method that would, among other things, take into account differences in the cost of living.

A Washington-based advocacy group called the Center for Law and Social Policy has applied the proposed NAS formula to the states and then added another factor: differential housing costs. The result is that California's poverty rate, 34th highest under the current formula, drops to 32nd under the NAS methodology but soars to 50th when housing costs are included in the calculation.

The new Census Bureau data sets are available here while the county-by-county poverty comparisons can be found here.

The alternate report on poverty from the Center for Law and Social Policy is accessible here.

California is in the middle of the pack in state-by-state comparisons of health, but moved up one notch from 24th to 23rd in the last year, in part because its cigarette smoking rate is the second lowest in the nation.

The annual report, which covers a variety of health-related issues -- including high school graduation rates -- is called America's Health Rankings and is produced by a coalition of health advocacy groups. The state's fabled air pollution and its high proportion of medically uninsured residents were two factors that prevented California from ranking higher. Over the years, California's ranking has ranged from 18th to 28th but has been stuck in the mid-20s for several years.

Vermont was rated as the nation's healthiest state and Mississippi as the least healthy.

The full report is available here. The detail on California can be found here.

California, for the second straight year, has received a "C" grade by the March of Dimes for its premature birthrate - but that's not as bad as it sounds.

No state received an "A" grade on programs to prevent premature births. Only one, Vermont, got a "B," while the nation as a whole earned only a "D" grade.

California's premature birthrate, 10.9 percent of live births, is up slightly from 10.7 in 2008, and is still markedly lower than the national rate of 12.7 percent. The March of Dimes goal is 7.6 percent.

"While we are working diligently to fight growing rates of premature birth, our state's grade indicates that more needs to be done to give these babies a chance at a healthy start in life," said Dani Montague, director of the March of Dimes California chapter. "Nearly 58,000 babies are born too soon in California every year, and many of these births result in ongoing health problems and months of hospitalization for these tiny newborns."

Seven states improved their scores by one letter grade and two states declined. The March of Dimes recommends that states attack premature births, the leading cause of infant deaths, through such programs as reducing smoking among women of childbearing age and improving access to prenatal medical care.

An interactive map of the United States is available here while the detailed report on California can be found here.

The Milken Institute is based in Southern California, but its annual survey of business conditions in the nation's cities has almost nothing good to say about California.

It heaps praise on Texas - the Austin area was ranked No. 1 on Milken's list of "best-performing cities," released today, while three other Texas cities were listed in the top five, with only No. 3 Salt Lake City cracking that elite list.

Cities in recession-wracked California, meanwhile, saw their rankings decline - especially those hit hard by the collapse of the housing market.

Turmoil in the California housing market has dramatically dropped home sale prices, and that means that buying a house in the state is becoming easier for those with steady incomes and good credit ratings.

The California Association of Realtors reported today that the proportion of households that could afford to buy an entry-level home was 64 percent in the third quarter of this year, up sharply from the 55 percent level a year earlier.

Californians are worried about deterioration of the state's higher education system and rising costs to students and their parents, but lack confidence in the ability of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislators to deal with their concerns, a new Public Policy Institute of California poll indicates.

Californians notoriously eschew walking for driving, which may explain why the state doesn't have a particularly high pedestrian fatality rate, a new report by Transportation for America, a transportation advocacy group based in Washington, indicates.

The four most dangerous major metropolitan areas are found in Florida, led by Orlando, with a "pedestrian danger index" of 221.5. The least dangerous metropolitan area (over one million residents) for pedestrians is Minneapolis-St. Paul, which also topped a recent survey of overall hazardous circumstances by another organization.

The most dangerous large California region is Riverside-San Bernardino, ranked 18th on the national list, with Sacramento at No. 22, San Jose at No. 26, Los Angeles-Long Beach at No. 27, San Diego at No. 33, and San Francisco-Oakland at 40.

When smaller communities' scores are tallied, however, Bakersfield, with a pedestrian danger index of 128 (equal to seventh place on the national list), ranks as the state's most perilous. It's followed by Stockton, Redding and Fresno and then by Riverside-San Bernardino. The safest of the 26 California communities for walkers is San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles with an index of just 15.4.

The full report is available here while the California breakdown can be found here.

California expanded health insurance for children earlier in this decade, reducing the uninsured ranks by 12 percent, but additional progress has been stalled by the state's chronic budget deficit, according to a new statistical report by the California Healthcare Foundation, and coverage declined in 2008.

Reductions in Healthy Families and other programs aimed at working poor families lacking health insurance has been a major issue as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislators deal with its ongoing fiscal crisis.

Just last month, Schwarzenegger signed an emergency bill under which hospitals agreed to pay
$2 billion in fees to the state to qualify California for $2.3 billion in new matching money to hospitals and boost funding for children's insurance by $320 million and public hospital financing by another $310 million.

The Healthcare Foundation report says that expanding children's coverage dropped the state's uninsured rate to just above the national average of 11 percent, even though 80 percent of California's children are eligible for public programs.

It also notes that California's proportion of uninsured school children, 32 percent, is also slightly above the national average, and that as private employers cut back on employees' insurance, more children are being shifted to public programs.

The full report is available here.

Were California's 500-mile-long Central Valley a separate state, it would be the nation's most productive agricultural state, but its per capita personal income would be the nation's third lowest, according to the latest assessment of the region by the Modesto-based Great Valley Center.

The center, which is affiliated with the University of California, Merced, annually generates a statistical and observational portrait of the region and the newest version is similar to those of the past in describing it as one of great potential but equally great economic, social and environmental challenges.

"In 2007, the per capita income of the Central Valley was $29,790, 29 percent below the state average of $41,805," says the report. "To put this in perspective, if the Central Valley was to be taken as an individual state, it would rank 48th in the nation in per capita income."

The full report is available here.

All but a few Republican legislators had perfect voting records this year as far as the state Chamber of Commerce is concerned, whereas only a few Democrats voted with the chamber even half the time.

The business organization published its completely predictable voting records on 13 key business measures, including the chamber-opposed "job killer" bills, in today's edition of its weekly bulletin.

Twenty-five GOP members of the Assembly were given perfect 13-0 voting records while first-term Assemblywoman Alyson Huber of El Dorado Hills had the highest score by a Democrat, 10-3. At the other end of the scale, six Democratic Assembly members had 2-10 ratings.

Senators' voting record showed a similar split. Eleven of the Senate's 15 Republicans had 13-0 marks while the highest Democrat was Lou Correa of Santa Ana at 10-2 and Sen. Ellen Corbett, D-San Leandro, was the lowest at 1-11.

A complete bill-by-bill and legislator-by-legislator scorecard is available here.

California's largest cities and counties spent more than a half-billion dollars to deal with lawsuits during a two-year period, according to a survey by California Citizens Against Lawsuit Abuse (CALA).

CALA describes itself as a "nonpartisan grassroots movement of concerned citizens and businesses who are fighting against lawsuit abuse in California," but it's part of the business-insurance coalition that wages perpetual political war with plaintiffs' attorneys, environmental and consumer groups over the rules governing litigation. The latter maintain that broad access to the courts is a guardian against abuse by private and public entities.

CALA looked at monies spent on verdicts, settlements and outside counsel in fiscal years 2007 and 2008 for the counties of: Alameda, Fresno, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Sacramento, San Diego, San Francisco, and Santa Clara and the cities of: Anaheim, Bakersfield, Fresno, Los Angeles, Oakland, Sacramento, San Diego, and San Jose. It said those cities and counties spent $504.1 million during those two years.

"California has 58 counties and 480 cities, so this is just the tip of the iceberg," said Tom Scott, CALA executive director. "With devastating budget cuts hitting cities and counties up and down the state, there are countless other ways this money could have been spent."

The full report is available here.

California got an environmental black eye when the American Lung Association ranked the air quality of American cities and placed six of the state's urban areas on the list of those with the highest levels of ozone pollution.

Now Forbes magazine has expanded the environmental rankings to include such factors as the number of Superfund toxic waste cleanup sites and the number of industrial facilities releasing toxic chemicals into the air to generate an "overall toxic cities ranking" of the nation's 40 largest urban areas. And California does pretty well.

Although Los Angeles ranks near the top in toxicity, 34th on the list, the other five California communities do well. The Sacramento area, in fact, is rated the second least toxic community, just behind Las Vegas, while the Riverside-San Bernardino area is third, San Diego is sixth and San Jose is eighth. San Francisco is near the middle of the pack at No. 15.

Los Angeles' famous smog - which caused it to top the Lung Association list of cities with bad air - is cited as the main reason for its high toxicity rating by Forbes.

"Los Angeles is in a geographic basin surrounded by mountains," Brian Turnbaugh, policy analyst for the Environmental Right to Know project at OMB Watch, a government watchdog organization, is quoted by Forbes. "The pollution doesn't go away; it kind of just sits there, creating these horrible smog days."

The Forbes article is available here and the city-by-city chart can be found here.

California's local government and school district tax and bond measures fared relatively well in Tuesday's election, especially those requiring less than two-thirds vote margins.

Michael Coleman, a fiscal advisor to the League of California Cities, compiled the preliminary report on dozens of local ballot measures, finding that about two-thirds of local tax and bond measures were approved.

The full report is available here.

California has long had one of the nation's higher poverty rates, as calculated by the federal government for decades on a formula tied to food prices. But it may actually be the highest in the nation under one proposed new way of calculating it.

The National Academy of Sciences has recommended a new methodology for calculating poverty in the 1990s, using costs of housing and other factors in addition to food. It has gained impetus because President Barack Obama, as a White House candidate, advocated a change in formula.

A Washington-based advocacy group called the Center for Law and Social Policy has applied the proposed NAS formula to the states and then added another factor: differential housing costs.

The result is that California's poverty rate, 34th highest under the current formula, drops to 32nd under the NAS methodology but soars to 50th when housing costs are included in the calculation.

"This report provides a hint of how poverty rates might change if a more comprehensive poverty measure was implemented," The author of the CLASP report, Dorothy Smith said in a statement as results were released today. "While a new poverty measure itself won't change the circumstances of Americans, it will better help policymakers and advocates understand the full dimensions of poverty at the national, state and local levels, and it can help inform policy decisions on how to tackle poverty."

The results for California - relatively little change under the NAS proposal but much change with housing costs - were mirrored in many other states with high housing costs. New Jersey, for instance, had the second lowest poverty rates by the first two measures but jumped to 31st with the housing cost adjustment. New York wound up with a poverty rate second only to California's.

At the other end of the scale, New Hampshire has the nation's lowest rate of poverty by any measure. The different methods are explained here while the state-by-state comparisons can be found here.

The bad news is that six California cities appear on the American Lung Association's list of the nation's 10 most ozone-polluted cities, including the four most polluted.

The good news is that the association says ozone pollution appears to be lessening in Los Angeles and the other California cities on the list, while it's growing in non-California cities such as Phoenix.

Los Angeles leads the list of ozone-heavy cities, followed by Bakersfield, Visalia and Fresno, with Sacramento at No. 6 and El Centro at No. 10. Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Charlotte and Phoenix round out the top 10.

At the other end of the scale, Fargo, ND, and nearby Wahpeton, MN, appear to have the nation's cleanest air, measured not only by ozone levels but those of short-term and year-round particle pollution, while California cities appear prominently on the lists of those with high levels of particle pollution.

Fresno, Bakersfield and Los Angeles hold the second, third and fourth places on the list of cities with the worst short-term particle pollution, with Pittsburgh topping the list. Sacramento is No. 7. Bakersfield, meanwhile, is said to have the nation's worst year-round particle pollution, with Los Angeles at No. 3, Visalia at No. 4, Hanford at No. 6, and Fresno No. 7.

The pollution rankings are contained in the Lung Association's annual "State of the Air" report, available here.

Five California metropolitan areas appear in a Forbes magazine list that purports to rate the personal safety risk of the nation's 40 largest metropolitan areas, based on their rates of violent crime, workplace deaths, fatal auto crashes and their exposure to natural disasters.

However, the list is already drawing criticism for its somewhat arbitrary assignment of scores for various factors. While the hard data come from government reports, such as the FBI's crime indices, the "natural disaster risk" is extrapolated from a website, sustainlane.com, that's devoted to environmental issues.

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, for instance, is considered to be the safest California area with an overall score of 54, seventh lowest on the list, but 38 of those negative points come from its disaster risk, the third worst among the 40 regions. It was near the epicenter of the 1989 Loma Prieta quake.

San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont is rated even worse on disaster risk at 39 (and 25th overall) but 40th place is held by the Miami region, apparently due to the danger of hurricanes.

Miami also is considered the least safe of the 40 regions, Forbes said, with a score of 144 of out of 160 potential risk points, having received very high scores in all four categories of risk. At the other end of the scale, the Minneapolis region is considered the safest of the 40 with a score of just 24, followed by Milwaukee - which indicates that the risk of boredom was not considered.

Other California metropolitan areas surveyed were:

--San Diego, 13th place at 66, due largely to its high traffic fatality rate;

--Los Angeles-Long Beach, 19th at 71, with a high natural disaster risk, apparently from wildfire; and

--Sacramento, 24th at 88, also due to a high natural disaster risk, apparently from flooding.

The full list and the breakdown of various factors is available here.

Charter schools - a major component of President Barack Obama's education reform crusade - appear to be thriving in California.

The California Charter Schools Association says that 88 new charter schools opened their doors this year, pushing the total to 809 schools and approximately 341,000 students or about 5 percent of California's public school enrollment.

"California charter schools are experiencing explosive growth, roughly 20 percent growth for two years in a row," said Jed Wallace, president of the California Charter Schools Association. "This consistent growth is phenomenal given this tough economic climate and it speaks to the choices that both parents and teachers are making and their demand for high-quality educational options. The solid growth in charter school enrollment demonstrates that parents - and teachers - realize charters are mainstream options."

School unions, especially the California Teachers Association, have been cool to the charter school movement, but it has champions in Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and, most recently, President Obama, who has called on states to reduce barriers to charter school formation.

Los Angeles Unified, the state's largest school district, also has the state's largest number of new charter schools, 19, bringing its total to 163, the largest number of any district in the nation.

There are 10 new charter schools in San Diego County and five each in Fresno and Sonoma counties.

Everybody knows that California is the land of ethnic diversity, congested roadways and high home prices, but how does it really compare with other states on those and other facts of life?

The answers are to be found in the latest data dump from the Census Bureau entitled American Community Survey, covering what the bureau calls "a wide range of socioeconomic, housing and demographic characteristics."

The data are broken down not only by state, but by communities as small as 20,000 population and - because it's a federal agency - by congressional district.

San Jose figures prominently in the Census Bureau summary of the data. It is, for example, one of only three metropolitan areas with a foreign-born population of over 30 percent (Miami-Fort Lauderdale is the highest at 36.9 percent and the third is Los Angeles). At the other end of the scale, Altoona, PA, has a foreign-born population of less than 1 percent.

San Jose tops the nation in median home value at $739,700, the only metropolitan region over $700,000, but all seven metro areas over $600,000 are in California, others being Santa Cruz, San Francisco, Salinas, Napa, Santa Barbara and Oxnard. The lowest median value is found in Odessa, TX, $68,200.

Anyone can crunch the numbers by tapping the Census Bureau's American Community Survey website here.

California's economic rebound could be retarded unless the state does a better job of training "middle-skill" workers, those with post-high school training but not college degrees, according to a new report by a labor-management coalition.

The "Skills2Compete" organization includes both major employer and union groups and its report, entitled "California's Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs," says that nearly half of California's jobs now fall into that category, and with economic growth and Baby Boomer retirements, the state will need some 2.7 million additional workers in middle-skill fields by 2016, with carpenters the largest single category.

The report is ammunition for a long-running debate in California over whether it places too much emphasis on college preparation in its high schools and denigrates vocational education, leading to worker shortages and high dropout rates.

The full report is available here.

The sharp spike in California's unemployment rate - it's now over 12 percent of the labor force - means an equally sharp spike in the number of Californians who have lost their health insurance, a new report by Families USA, a Washington-based advocate for universal health care, concludes.

Families USA's report, issued today, estimates that California's medically uninsured population, one of the nation's highest, jumped by 661,600 persons this year to more than 6 million - by far the largest numerical increase of any state and one of the highest proportionate increases.

The state-by-state report is available here.

There are immense differences among California's 58 counties in ethnic makeup, birthrates and personal income - factors that give the state more the characteristics of a large nation rather than a typical American state, a new Census Bureau data dump indicates.

The new report, called "USA Counties," covers a variety of economic and demographic conditions and allows both state-by-state and county-by-county comparisons.

California, for instance, has the nation's proportionately largest Latino population, 36.6 percent, just slightly ahead of Texas, but the proportion within the state ranges widely, from 76.8 percent in Imperial County to 4.9 percent in equally rural Trinity County.

Another big gap is found in birthrates. California's, 15.6 babies per 1,000 population, is the nation's sixth highest but within the state, birthrates range from Tulare County's 20.1, almost as high as Utah's first-in-nation 20.7, to just 5 in remote, mountainous Sierra County.

Another wide gap is found in income levels. California's median annual household income of $59,928 (2007) is the nation's eighth highest, nearly $10,000 above the national median. But within the state, median incomes range from $84,625 in Santa Clara County, home of Silicon Valley, with other Bay Area counties just slightly behind, to a low of $33,576 in Imperial, with its large population of poor farmworkers.

The new data set is available here.

By signing 478 of the 707 bills sent to his desk in the final days of the 2009 legislative session, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger went into the record books as the stingiest governor in recent history, having approved just 632 legislative measures this year.

According to veteran legislative staffer Peter Detwiler, who has tracked the flow of legislation over the last several decades, Schwarzenegger broke his own record of 729 approved bills, set just last year. In fact Schwarzenegger's total has declined annually for the last four years.

However, by vetoing 229 of those late session bills, Schwarzenegger failed to set a new record for rejections, which is held by George Deukmejian, a Republican governor of the 1980s, who in 1990 vetoed 436 measures. Schwarzenegger is in second place with 414 vetoes in 2008.

One reason for the low numbers is that the Legislature has not been passing many bills of late. The number has been dropping steadily from a high of 1,725 in 1967, Ronald Reagan's first year as governor (he vetoed just 83 of them) to this year's 872, the lowest number in more than 40 years.

With this year's numbers, Detwiler calculates, Schwarzenegger solidifies his standing as the governor who vetoed the hghest percentage of bills reaching his desk, 35.17 percent so far. He's also dead last among governors in total bills signed, although he's still got another year to go in his seven-year gubernatorial reign.


While exports from California ports are continuing to fall below last year's levels, trade analyst Jock O'Connell says the latest data indicate that Northern California is faring better than Southern California.

Exports were just over $10 billion in August, according to monthly data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, 22.3 percent below those of August 2008, the 10th straight month of yearly declines and the lowest export total for August since 2005. The decline was equally felt in manufactured and agricultural goods.

"Although the statewide numbers remain dismal, the Los Angeles area seems to be the real laggard," said O'Connell, and adviser to the University of California.

The number of loaded shipping containers leaving the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in August was down by 14.5 percent from last year. By contrast, loaded containers sailing from the Port of Oakland were up by 12.8 percent over the same period.

The story was similar at the state's two principal international airports. Export tonnage in August was down 3.4 percent at Los Angeles International, but up by 5.2 percent at San Francisco International.

"To be sure, California's seaports, airports and border crossings serve exporters throughout the country," O'Connell said. "But since California businesses perhaps account for as much as two-thirds of the value of all exports leaving the U.S. through a California gateway, these numbers do suggest that economic recovery may be further underway in northern California and in San Diego than in the Los Angeles basin."

So far in 2009, California exports have totaled $76.1, down 23.1 percent compared to the first eight months of 2008, when the state's exports amounted to $98.9 billion.

The Census Bureau has some backhanded good news for California in a new report on state finances.

While California's tax receipts during the second quarter of 2009, $33.5 billion, were 14.1 percent lower than the second quarter of 2008, the Census Bureau data show, that decrease was markedly less than the overall revenue drop of 16.6 percent in all 50 states.

California's $33.5 billion represented, by the way, 16.7 percent of all state government revenues, even though the state's population, estimated at 38 million, is just 12.5 percent of the nation's 304 million, thus contributing another factoid to the never-ending debate over whether Californians are under- or over-taxed.

For those wanting to crunch the numbers themselves, the Census Bureau's state-by-state data are available here.

California appeared to have a huge housing construction boom earlier in the decade, and its collapse is widely seen as the primary cause of the current recession, but a new Census Bureau compilation shows that the state actually lagged the nation in housing production between 2000 and 2008.

The state began the decade with 12.2 million housing units and by 2008 another 1.2 million had been added, but the 9.7 percent growth, the Census Bureau data indicate, was well under the national average of 11.4 percent and ranked 26th in the nation. Even in sheer numbers, housing construction in California was just third behind Florida's 1.5 million units and the 1.4 million in Texas.

Nevada had the highest percentage gain during the eight-year period, 36.2 percentage. But its housing meltdown has even more severe than California's, as that of Arizona, which had the nation's second highest rate of housing expansion, 24.4 percent.

The complete state-by-state compilation is available here.

California's unemployment rate rose to 12.2 percent in August, up from an 11.9 percent jobless rate reported in July, according to data released today by the California Employment Development Department.

That rate means California reported the fourth-highest jobless rate in the country, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Oregon also reported an unemployment rate of 12.2 percent.

The state was one of 14 states and the District of Columbia to report unemployment rates of at least 10 percent in August.

But the number of payroll jobs lost dropped significantly. The number of payroll jobs fell by 12,300 in August, down from a net job loss of 38,900 reported in July.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger issued a statement saying the figures reinforce the need to address the state's tax and water issues.

"Immediately addressing our challenges, which include reforming the state's antiquated tax structure and updating our water delivery system will move the state forward and build a stronger, more diverse economy," he said. "While I am pleased to see fewer jobs lost, my administration will not rest until job growth resumes and employment returns to normal."

For more on what the figures were for Sacramento, check out the Bee's Home Front blog here.

As California plunged into recession, its poverty rate jumped significantly, the California Budget Project said today in an analysis of new Census Bureau data.

The Census Bureau numbers indicated that more than 5.3 million Californians, nearly 15 percent of its population and somewhat higher than the national rate, had incomes below the official poverty level in 2008. The number rose 700,000 -- almost 1.9 percentage points -- from 2007.

The data also showed that the share of Californians under 65 with job-related health insurance coverage dropped to 56.2 percent last year, continuing a downward trend.

"We're only looking at the tip of the iceberg," said Jean Ross, CBP executive director. "We know that the economy deteriorated further in 2009, so the data released today show just the beginning of what could become a substantial decline in living standards for low- and middle-income families."

The full CBP analysis is available here.

Freight traffic through California's seaports and airports is continuing to dip, further indication that foreign trade, once one of the state's strongest economic sectors, is continuing to erode.

Jock O'Connell, a trade consultant to the University of California's Sacramento center, said new federal data show the state's $9.77 billion in merchandise exports in July were down 2.1 percent from June and 23.5 percent below the $12.77 billion in goods the state shipped abroad in July of 2008.

Manufactured exports in July fell by 25.2 percent from last July's level, while agricultural goods and other non-manufactured exports fell 29 percent. Re-exports of goods previously imported into the state were off by 13.2 percent.

"Adjusting for inflation, this was the lowest export total for the month of July California has recorded since 2003," O'Connell said. July was also the ninth consecutive month of year-to-year export declines.

So far in 2009, California has exported $66.12 billion in goods, down 23.1 percent compared to the first seven months of 2008.

Import data were equally bleak. The $29.1 billion in foreign goods moving through California in July was 29 percent below July, 2008. in the same month last year.

If there is good news in the data, O'Connell said, it may be that the decline is flattening and an uptick may be offing. "With apologies to T. S. Eliot, April does seem to have been the cruelest month for California exports," O'Connell said. "Although we still have a long way to go, our export trade has been moving in a healthier direction since then."

Enrollment in California;s 110 community colleges hit 2.9 million during the 2008-09 school year, state Chancellor Jack Scott announced today, a 4.9 percent increase from th previous year.

The enrollment pressure comes as the community colleges absorb their share of state budget cuts, and Scott said it means students now registering will see reduced course offerings.Enrollment is up nearly 16 percent over the last four years, or approximately 400,000 students.

The enrollment increase was 2-1/2 times the increase assumed in the 2008-09 state budget. Scott said community colleges have seen an $840 million cut in their appropriations over the last two budgets. Community colleges are financed by a combination of property taxes and state appropriations.

The recent increase in enrollments for 2008/09 was well beyond the two percent growth funding the colleges received from the state budget. Additionally, the California Community Colleges sustained $840 million in state funding cuts for the 2008/09 and 2009/10 academic years combined.

While demand for college is slowing due to demographic changes, California community colleges will continue to see a rising pressure for classes and need "to prepare for 222,000 additional students above current enrollments" by 2019, according to a new projection for the California Postsecondary Education Commission.

"These are conservative projections - the problem could actually be worse," said John Perez, chair of CPEC. "This could impact many Californians. It's a problem, not just for workers who need community colleges for job training, but also for high school graduates who can't afford to start their education at a four-year university."

The full report, entitled, "Ready or Not, Here They Come," is available here.

California has one of the nation's highest proportion of residents without medical insurance, about 20 percent, but many of those with insurance have found themselves with debts from medical care, according to a new study by UCLA's Center for Health Policy Research.

More than 2.2 million adults Californians report medical debt, with two-thirds of them incurring debt while insured, according to "The State of Health Insurance in California." Overall, 13 percent of Californians have some kind of medical debt and about a third of those have more than $2,000 in medical debt.

Not surprisingly, residents of relatively low-income rural areas have the greatest levels of medical debt, as high as 39 percent in Humboldt County, while those in affluent urban areas have few such problems, just 7.1 percent in San Mateo County.

"That even insured people are forced to take on medical debt to pay for their health care is another glaring inadequacy in our current system of health insurance," said E. Richard Brown, director of the UCLA center. "Current policies either do not offer enough coverage or offer full-coverage at a cost that is too expensive for many people to bear. The result is that too many people have health insurance plans that leave them financially vulnerable and force them to delay the care they need."

The full report on Californians' health insurance, or lack thereof, is available here.

If you sense that California's highways and streets are in worse repair and more congested than those of other states, you're probably correct, a new nationwide compilation of transportation data indicates.

Transportation for America, a Washington-based coalition of business, labor, environmental and governmental groups that lobbies for "a national transportation program that will take America into the 21st century by modernizing our infrastructure and building healthy communities where all people can live, work and play," has constructed an interactive website that provides state-by-state data, with comparisons to national averages.

It reveals, for instance, that 17.2 percent of California's roadways are considered to be in "poor condition," compared to the national average of just 5.8 percent, and traffic delays are considerably worse than those in other states. Only 2.9 percent of Texas roads are considered to be in poor condition, and the percentages in Nevada and Arizona are slightly lower at 2.8 percent. New York's number is 13 percent.

California is, however, slightly below the national average in metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation per capita, perhaps reflecting its tough smog rules, but also slightly above the average in the proportion of its population (37 percent) without access to a car. The state's record of pedestrian fatalities, 1.97 per 100,000 people, is 56 percent above the national average.

The interactive website can be found here.

California's Legislature, as befits the state's complex cultural makeup, also has one of the nation's more diverse memberships, according to a new survey by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

California home sales increased 12 percent in July over July 2008, while the median home price was 19.6 percent lower - reflecting the continued domination of the market by buyers acquiring distressed properties and the effects of a federal tax credit for first-time buyers.

The data were released today by the California Association of Realtors, whose president, James Liptak, credited the tax credit as playing "a critical role in the purchase decision of many buyers. Nearly 40 percent of first-time buyers said they would not have purchased a home if the tax credit was not offered. Because the tax credit has helped so many first-time buyers become homeowners, it is critical that Congress extends the credit beyond the Dec. 1 deadline, and includes all buyers, not just first-timers."

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 553,910 in July at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by CAR from more than 90 local real estate associations. That was 12 percent higher than the revised 494,390 sales pace recorded in July 2008. Sales in July 2009 increased 8.1 percent compared with the previous month.

A region-by-region survey of July median sales prices, contrasting them with the peak market of a few years ago, is available here.

The "high desert" area of Southern California had the steepest decline, 67 percent, while Santa Clara County had the smallest drop, 32.4 percent.

The latest results from California's standardized student tests continue to show incremental improvement in academic achievement, but the state still faces a monumental crisis, Oakland-based Education Trust-West says in its annual report on the status of public education.

The report was issued as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger renews his demands for education reform, calling a special legislative session to align the state with President Barack Obama's new reform program.

While the state is making incremental improvements, "the gaps in achievement separating Latino, African-American, and low-income students from their more advantaged peers are not closing but in some cases, are actually widening," EdTrust-West said as it released its report.

"By nearly every measure, our public schools continue to struggle to serve our most vulnerable children well," it continued. "Unfortunately, the schools profiled in this report remain the exception, rather than the rule. State leaders must seize the opportunity provided by the federal government's unprecedented investment in education and the governor's call for special legislative session to enact the type of change that will forever close gaps in access and achievement. We simply cannot afford to tinker at the edges of reform while another generation of young people-particularly our low-income students and students of color-go underestimated and underserved by our education system."

The full report, highlighting the organization's assessment of what's working and not working in the classroom, is accessible here.

The Senate Local Government Committee, taking what it calls the "Dragnet approach," has updated its fact sheets on California's cities, counties, special districts and redevelopment agencies.

The two-page "just the facts" sheets summarize the latest demographic and financial data about local governments and are included in the committee's on-line reference library, available here.

The state's continuing and perhaps deepening recession - marked by a spike in July's unemployment to 11.9 percent - is hitting retail sales hard, a new Board of Equalization announcement indicates.

The board announced today that it is reducing quarterly allocations of sales taxes to 337 cities and counties, based on estimates that taxable sales dropped 18.74 percent during the second quarter (April-June) of the year. And it said 15 smaller cities would receive no monthly sales tax advance this month because its previous allocations were too high.

The reductions and freezes hit nearly half of the 768 local governments that receive a share of the state-local sales tax. Second quarter payments were reduced by 14.4 percent. This month's reductions are similar to those that the board made in May for the first quarter.

While the 18.74 percent decline hits cities hard, the state's share of the sales tax is being buoyed by a temporary tax rate boost, one cent per $1 of sales, that the governor and Legislature enacted in February.

A spreadsheet showing all of the allocations, including the list of 15 cities whose allocations were reduced to zero is available here.

Declining home prices in California have a bright side - an increase in the state's traditionally low affordability.

The California Association of Realtors says that 67 percent of California families could afford at least an entry-level home in the second quarter of 2009, up from 49 percent a year earlier.

"The minimum household income needed to purchase an entry-level home at $224,180 in California in the second quarter of 2009 was $39,930, based on an adjustable interest rate of 4.92 percent and assuming a 10 percent down payment.," CAR said. "First-time buyers typically purchase a home equal to 85 percent of the prevailing median price. The monthly payment including taxes and insurance was $1,330 for the second quarter of 2009."

At 86 percent, the High Desert region was the most affordable area in the state. The San Luis Obispo County region was the least affordable in the state at 50 percent, followed by the Orange County region at 53 percent. Merced County was the most affordable county at 84 percent.

California isn't alone in feeling the fiscal pinch and it's also not alone in seeking to trim its prison and parole costs, a new nationwide survey finds.

"The Fiscal Crisis in Corrections," issued by the New York-based VERA Institute of Justice, a criminal justice reform foundation, says that 37 states (not including California) responded to its survey and that at least 26 of them have reduced penal spending in response to budget problems.

California, with a $10-plus billion prison expense, is seeking a $1.2 billion reduction in its latest state budget, but there's a political stalemate on how to achieve it. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed a plan to shrink the state's prison population, now nearly 170,000, by 27,000 through a variety of strategies, including early release of some low-risk inmates.

Schwarzenegger's fellow Republicans have balked, but in the meantime a panel of federal judges has ordered the state to drop its inmate population by more than 40,000. The issue will be rejoined Monday when the Legislature returns from its summer recess.

The VERA report indicated that other states are implementing what California is still considering. It said a few states cut prison spending in anticipation that the hole would be filled by federal economic stimulus funds but at least 31 states are reducing prison staffs, imposing hiring freezes, reducing salaries and benefits and/or eliminating pay increases. At least 22 states are closing penal facilities, otherwise reducing their prison beds and/or delaying construction of new prisons.

"High rates of failure among people on probation and parole are a significant driver of prison populations and costs in most states," the report said. "To cut down on new offenses and the incarceration of rule violators, several states are strengthening their community corrections systems. Many states began these efforts in the past few years as part of the national emphasis on helping people successfully return to the community following their release from prison. States are now bolstering both their reentry programs and community supervision programs and working to improve outcomes for people on supervision.

"The biggest budget savings come from policy changes that impact how many people
come into prison and how long they stay. Staffing typically accounts for 75 to 80 percent of corrections budgets, so substantial cost reductions can be achieved only when the prison population shrinks enough to shutter a facility - whether a single cellblock or an entire prison. In FY2010, states looking for large cuts have turned to release policies and found that they can identify some groups of people who can be safely released after serving shorter terms behind bars."

The report includes a rundown on prison budgets of the states that responded. Texas, second only to California in the size of its prison system with about 150,000 inmates, spends $2.8 billion a year, less than a third of California's costs.

The full VERA report is available here.

The decline in California exports continued into its eighth straight month as the global recession dampened demand for the state's goods and services, new data compiled by the University of California's Sacramento center show.

Although June exports from California, $9.98 billion, were $479 million above those of May, they were nearly 25 percent those of June 2008, UC trade adviser Jock O'Connell said after reviewing data from the U.S. Commerce Department.

"The fact that June's export numbers were higher than May's does not signal an imminent recovery in our foreign trade," said O'Connell. "Historically, June's exports have typically been higher than May's, and these were the lowest California export figures for the month of June since 2005."

California's exports of manufactured products were off by 28.8 percent from the previous June, while shipments of agricultural and other non-manufactured items dropped by 23.6 percent.

California exports are down by 23 percent so far this year, compared to the same period last year, when the state's export trade amounted to $73.22 billion. "Grim as the picture may be, we can perhaps derive some solace from the fact that California has been doing somewhat better than the rest of the nation," O'Connell said. "While our exports are down 23 percent since January, U.S. exports are off by 24.7 percent."

Import traffic fared even worse than exports, with foreign goods entering the U.S. through California down by 33.4 percent. Overall, the the volume of containerized cargos passing through the Ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland - California's three largest maritime gateways - has been off by 19.6 percent so far this year.

Although California home prices have dropped dramatically in the last couple of years as the state experienced a wave of foreclosures and distressed properties flooded the market, coastal regions of the state still have relatively high prices that will discourage renters from buying, a new national housing survey indicates.

However, inland regions, where home prices have dropped more dramatically, have edged into the area of relative affordability.

The report was released by the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research and the National Low Income Housing Coalition. It delves into the interrelationship of rents to purchase costs. It concentrates on what it calls "bubble markets" in which the costs of owning a home far outweigh those of renting, several of which are in California.

The study is based on an assumed "equilibrium level" of 15-to-1 - the ratio being a home's cost and the rental income it could generate. Thus, a $150,000 that could rent for $10,000 a year is said to be in equilibrium. Any ratio above 15-to-1 is deemed inflated. In cities with those higher ratios, the report contends, renters are less likely to take the plunge into ownership.

San Jose is the least attractive market for renters at 29.4-to-1, even though declining home prices have dropped it from 35-to-1 in the past year. The study also lists the San Francisco-Oakland area (23.7-to-1) and Los Angeles-Long Beach (21.5-to-1) among the metropolitan areas with particularly high ratios, as well as San Diego (19.3-to-1), and Ventura (20-to-1).

However, the study also found that several inland regions of California, where home prices have plummeted, have dropped into the theoretically affordable range, including Riverside-San Bernardino (13.7-to-1), Bakersfield (14.7-to-1), Modesto (15-to-1) and Stockton (14.2-to-1). Fresno almost made the cut at 15.8-to-1.

The narrowing of the gap in Stockton, from 24.7-to-1 in 2008, is especially dramatic, reflecting its status as ground zero for the housing market collapse in California. The Sacramento region also dropped dramatically, from 24-to-1 to 18.1, but is still considered to be inflated. The report makes this comment about the capital area:

"In Sacramento, CA, under both sets of assumptions the homebuyer who purchases a home remains in negative territory four years out.... While the situation is bad under the status quo assumptions (a deficit of $22,919) under the alternative assumptions the accumulated liability is $57,446. The day when the homeowner is above water, owning a home that is worth more than the loan balance, is much further off."

Coincidentally, the Census Bureau released a new report on housing, indicating that while California added 1.1 million homes, apartments and other units of housing between 2000 and 2007, the growth of 9 percent was more than a full percentage point lower than the national average of housing expansion, 10.4 percent.

No California county was to be found in the list of the nation's 100 hottest housing growth markets, which were concentrated in Sunbelt states.

The full housing affordability report is available here while the Census Bureau report can be found here.

California, with one of the nation's lowest levels of medical insurance, has a particularly large stake in the outcome of the national health insurance debate underway in Washington, a new Census Bureau data release indicates.

The new data, based on a 2006 survey, indicate that California has the nation's fourth lowest level of medical insurance, with 21.3 percent of its residents under 65 years old lacking coverage - and recent reductions in Healthy Families and other state-sponsored medical care programs will, authorities say, push that number higher.

Two years ago, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger made a heavy push to expand health insurance in California to almost everyone, but the effort ran into opposition from those who wanted a single-payer, state-operated system and those who opposed the plan's new taxes and faltered in the Senate after passing the Assembly.

Only Florida, Louisiana and Texas have lower levels of health insurance, with Texas last at 27.6 percent uninsured. The Census Bureau data, which confirm earlier estimates by state officials and health care advocates, found that 6.8 million Californians lacked health insurance in 2006 out of 32 million Californians under 65. (Those over 65 are not counted because it's presumed they have Medicare coverage.)

At the other end of the scale, just 9.4 percent of under-65 residents of Minnesota, 9.6 percent of those in Massachusetts, 9.8 percent of Hawaiians and 9.9 percent of Wisconsinites lack insurance.

Within California, wealthy Santa Barbara County had the lowest level of health insurance, with 26.6 percent of those under 65 uninsured - doubtless reflecting the county's large number of agricultural workers, coupled with a higher-than-average percentage of over-65 residents concentrated in the resort/retirement enclaves of Santa Barbara, Montecito and the Santa Ynez Valley. The state's highest rate of medical insurance was found in Placer County, a high-income suburb of Sacramento, where just 13.7 of residents lacked coverage.

The state-by-state comparisons are available here while the county-by-county breakdown for California may be found here.

As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature were completing their latest budget deal last week, their standing with Californians was sinking to record-low levels, a new Public Policy Institute of California poll found.

The PPIC polling, which began before the budget agreement was announced on July 20 and concluded shortly afterwards, found that Schwarzenegger's performance won approval of just 28 percent of all adults and 29 percent of likely voters, the lowest any governor had been ranked since August 2003, when then-Gov. Gray Davis, facing a recall election, sank to 26 percent.

Schwarzenegger was elected at that recall election and once enjoyed approval ratings approaching 70 percent. His popularity sank two years later when he tried, and failed, to win voter approval for a series of "year of reform" ballot measures, then rose in 2006 as he won a landslide re-election. Since then, however, it's been drifting downward as the state's economy descended into recession and its budget problems steadily worsened.

With a record-low 14 percent of Californians saying the state is headed in the right direction, the attitude toward the Legislature also has soured, with lawmakers also at a record-low 17 percent approval in the PPIC poll.

The low ratings of both Schwarzenegger and the Legislature cross party lines with 70 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans disapproving of the governor, along with 58 percent of independents. The full poll, which includes Californians' ratings of President Barack Obama and a series of questions about environmental issues, may be found here.

California Congressman Henry Waxman, a principal architect of President Barack Obama's health care expansion plan, has produced a chart that purports to show the effects of the House version on every congressional district in the country, including the 53 in California.

The district-by-district compilation, released by Waxman's House Energy and Commerce Committee, indicates how many medically uninsured residents in each would receive coverage, how many small businesses would be affected and how many high-income taxpayers would be hit by the surtax that the House proposes to finance the plan.

A quick scan indicates that Democrat Waxman's silk stocking district, centered in Beverly Hills, would be among those with the fewest uninsured residents and the highest number of affected taxpayers. Conversely, impoverished rural and inner city districts would see the opposite effect, including several represented by moderate "blue dog" Democrats leery of the Waxman plan.

The full chart is available here.

California's recession, considered to be the worst since the Great Depression, is hitting Latinos harder than African Americans, according to a new analysis by the liberal Economic Policy Institute.

The Washington-based think tank projects that unemployment, 11.6 percent in California last month and one of the highest rates in the nation, will continue to rise at least through the first part of 2010, and sees an unusual disparity between black and Latino workers.

"Nationally, black unemployment is expected to reach 16 percent, the Hispanic rate 13.3 percent and the white rate 8.6 percent - up from 14.7 percent 12.2 percent, and 7.8 percent respectively, in the quarter that ended on June 30," EPI said.

"Hispanic unemployment in California and Nevada is expected to approach 18 percent by this time next year. Among the major racial and ethnic groups, African Americans consistently have historically had and continue to have the highest unemployment rate. In California, however, Hispanic unemployment surpassed black unemployment in the second quarter of this year and is projected to remain higher into 2010."

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles-based Economic Roundtable has calculated that the recession has created an "underemployment rate" of 16.2 percent in California.

The term is defined as being the official unemployment rate plus workers who have involuntarily shifted into lower-paying and/or parttime work, those who have dropped out of the labor force because they can't find jobs and "conditionally interested workers who would look for a job if they were able, for example if child care or transportation were available."

The full EPI report is available here while the Economic Rondtable data can be found here.

The glut of low-priced foreclosed homes and other distressed properties is continuing to fuel sharp increases in real estate sales, with a 20.1 percent increase in June over June 2008, according to the California Association of Realtors.

However, brisk sales of distressed properties also depress median home prices. Median prices were 26.4 percent lower in June than the previous June - but also marked the fourth straight month in which the median had increased.

"Many first-time buyers, especially those who were previously priced out of certain areas, are realizing that tax credits from both the state and federal governments, increased affordability, and low interest rates are creating a prime time to purchase a home," said CAR president James Liptak. "June marked the 10th consecutive month of positive sales gains, and the fourth month of rising median home prices.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 514,110 in June at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by CAR from more than 90 local associations.

A full city-by-city report on home sales is accessible here.

Californians once purchased more than two million new cars a year but the severe recession has driven new car sales sharply downward to less than half that annual level, according to the latest quarterly report from the California New Car Dealers Association.

Registrations of new cars and light trucks declined by 42.9 percent during the first three months of this year, the second quarter in a row that sales had dropped below a quarter-million units. And it means, the association said, that new vehicle sales will fall below a million for the year for the first time since 1975.

Dozens of new car dealerships have closed in California, reflecting both declines in sales and the financial travails of major automakers, especially General Motors and Chrysler. State and local governments also take a hit since each new car sold generates close to $2,000 in sales taxes. A million-unit drop in annual sales, therefore, means about a $2 billion loss to governments. It also depresses ongoing revenues from vehicle license fees, which are now 1.15 percent per year of a car's value.

"Tight credit, continued strains in the housing market, high unemployment and concerns over personal discretionary spending, all helped to pull the market down in the second quarter," said Gary Shipman, CNCDA chairman and a Santa Cruz dealer. "The good news is that I think we have hit bottom, but it could be a slow climb out."

The full report is available here.

California's share of foreign immigration to the United States, legal and illegal, has declined from a third to a quarter in the last two decades as immigrants increasingly locate in other states, according to a new study by the Public Policy Institute of California that adds fuel to the perennial debate about the effects of immigration, particular the illegal variety.

"We find that the decline in California's share of the nation's immigrant population is driven partly by out-migration of established immigrants to other states, but mostly by the settlement of new immigrant arrivals into different states," the study concludes. "California has experienced a net out-migration of both established immigrants and native-born persons to other states, but the flow of established immigrants is relatively small. In contrast, California's share of new immigrant arrivals to the United States has fallen sharply, from 35 percent of new arrivals in the late 1980s to only 19 percent in 2004-2007."

California still has the nation's largest immigrant population and it's continuing to expand, but the rate of that growth has slowed. The state's working age immigrant population expanded by nearly 10 percent per year in the 1980s, but growth fell to 4.4 percent in the 1990s and just 2 percent per year in this decade, PPIC concluded from an analysis of census data, which didn't differentiate between legal and illegal immigrants.

This trend is reflected by in-state migration trends as well with immigrants increasingly likely to settle outside traditional immigrant enclaves such as Los Angeles County. Although it remains home to far more immigrants than any other county, its immigrant population grew by just 1.9 percent per year between 1990 and 2007, compared to 12.6 percent growth per year in Riverside County and 10.5 percent in Kern County.
"Many immigrants - particularly Latinos - are moving to new destinations that have less established social networks but growing economic opportunities," says Sarah Bohn, and author of the study. "Immigrants are increasingly likely to base their decisions about where to live on wages and jobs."

The full PPIC report can be found here.

California isn't alone in facing very severe state budget deficits, but a new report from the National Conference of State Legislatures cites the "sheer size" of California's problem as dwarfing those of other states, even in relative terms.

The NCSL report says that collectively, states faced $142.6 billion in deficits for the 2009-10 fiscal year and many already are seeing signs that the total could grow.

"If you think legislators are breathing a sigh of relief because their budgets are passed, think again," said William Pound, NCSL executive director. "If history repeats itself, states are bound to see budget gaps reappear within the first quarter of FY 2010."

The report focused on California, noting that the original estimate of a $24.8 billion gap for 2009-10, plus a leftover deficit of $14.8 billion for 2008-09 "was resolved in a February 2009 budget agreement--except that it wasn't. The resolution included five ballot measures, representing about $5.8 billion of the fix, that failed to get voter support in a May special election.

"Adding the $5.8 billion unresolved figure to the amount of the gap that was closed ($18.9 billion), plus the newest gap ($14.2 billion) that officials expect because of declining revenues, California's cumulative FY 2010 gap explodes to a whopping $38.9 billion or 35 percent of the general fund budget."

The full NCSL report is available here.

California is one of 24 states that allow direct legislating via initiative petition and it's been given an "F" grade for the integrity of its initiative process by the Washington-based Ballot Initiative Strategy Center.

The state isn't alone in receiving a failing grade from the BISC, which says its mission is "to support a broad range of issues that engage the progressive base and swing voters." Most states received "D" or "F" grades for - by the organization's standards - failing to hold initiative sponsors sufficiently responsible for gathering signatures and/or having insufficient safeguards against fraud and duplicity.

"In fact, at every step of the way throughout the ballot initiative process," BISC says in its report, released today, "citizens are being subjected to abuse, fraud and deception--misleading and deceptive ballot language is often submitted, there are widespread cases of citizens being lied to during the signature gathering phase, and voters are being asked to make decisions about amending their state laws by people who may have themselves broken the law to propose the initiative."

"Most initiative states are ripe for initiative fraud," the report continues, adding, "Unless significant changes are made, the petition circulators, companies, and sponsors that are inclined to cheat the system will continue to do so. In order for citizens to once again be confident in their state's ballot measure processes, state legislatures need to take action before the 2010 signature gathering efforts begin in earnest."

Although highly controversial, former President George W. Bush's "No Child Left Behind" program of school testing and accountability is having the effect in California of punishing school boards and principals whose schools are not meeting performance standards, according to a new study by the Public Policy Institute of California.

School board members in districts meeting standards of academic improvement are more likely to be re-elected than those in districts that fall behind, S. Eric Larsen, author of the study reported, while principals in failing schools are more likely to be demoted. However, he added, "I find no evidence of relationships between student achievement and principal salaries, student achievement and superintendent salaries, or student achievement and superintendent retention rates..."

NCLB requires that every student be proficient in math and English-language arts by 2013-14. In California, Larsen said, student proficiency rates have climbed steadily for several years, but the state's schools will soon miss the mark, because the timetable for proficiency growth is now climbing rapidly toward the 100 percent goal. "Although average student test scores in California are at all-time highs in many subjects,nearly every school and school district in California will be labeled a failure within the next five years," Larsen said.

"NCLB gives voters and parents a clear measure of how students are doing and a way to judge schools and districts. The threat of sanctions may also be a factor in increasing accountability," Larsen concluded. The full PPIC report is available here.

California could see a nearly $1.4 billion per year increase in state revenues were it to legalize marijuana, the state Board of Equalization says in an analysis of pending legislation to to do that.

The bill (Assembly Bill 390) by Assemblyman Tom Ammiano, D-San Francisco, is still awaiting its first committee hearing and is likely not to be considered until next year. It would impose not only sales taxes but a $50 per ounce fee on marijuana sales, which would be licensed by the state much as alcoholic beverages are regulated.

Today, although considered illegal by federal authorities, California allows limited sales of marijuana for medicinal purposes, subject to local control, in accordance with a ballot measure approved by voters in 1996. And the state imposes sales taxes on those pot transactions. But wider sales would, under the Ammiano bill, be dependent on federal permission.

California is considered by federal authorities to be the nation's top marijuana producing state with 8.6 million pounds a year, valued at $13.8 billion, making it one of the state's largest agricultural crops, much of which is exported to other locales.The Board of Equalization analysis concludes that assuming 16 million ounces of marijuana consumption in California a year, legalization under AB 390 would generate $990 million from the $50 per ounce special levy and $392 million in sales taxes.

"We can no longer afford to keep our heads in the sand when it comes to marijuana," Ammiano said in a statement. "The move towards regulating and taxing marijuana is long overdue and simply common sense. The benefits of regulation are clear - controlling marijuana would generate up to $1.3 billion in much needed revenue for the state, restrict access to only those over 21, end the environmental damage to our public lands from illicit crops, and improve public safety by redirecting law enforcement efforts to more serious crimes.

"It defies reason to propose closing parks and eliminating vital services for the poor while this potential revenue is available. California has an historic opportunity to be the first state in the nation to enact a smart, responsible public policy for the control and regulation of marijuana."

As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders wrangle over whether to cut state spending on schools as part of a deficit-closing package, federal education authorities released a new compilation of academic test score data today, indicating that California's gap between achievement by black and white youngsters is wider than the national average.

The National Center for Educational Statistics report revealed that both black and white eighth-graders in California score below national averages in reading, and the gap between the two groups, 29 points, is three points above the national gap. On a 0-500 scale, California's white eighth-graders are at 266, four points below the national average for whites, and the state's black eighth-graders are at 237, seven points below the national average for blacks.

The eighth-grade gap is even wider when it comes to mathematics. Again, both groups score below the national averages for their grade and race, and the gap between them in California is 35 points.

The picture is only a bit brighter among fourth graders in California. White students are scoring somewhat above the national average in reading but blacks are well below average, although the gap between the two groups has narrowed somewhat since 1992, from 36 points to 27 points currently (2007 data). The gap has also narrowed markedly over the years in mathematics achievement, from 39 points in 1992 to 29 points in 2007.

"While the report released by the NCES today does not provide new data about California student achievement, it does provide a stark reminder of the prevalence of the achievement gap here and across the countr," state schools Supt. Jack O'Connelll said. "The achievement gap is a real threat to the economic well-being of millions of students as well as to our state and national economies. We have put ourselves in a permanent national recession by failing to close these gaps."

"I realize that these are extraordinarily difficult economic times for schools," O'Connell continued, "but we cannot let budget cuts distract us from our goal of closing the gap and helping all students meet their full potential. We owe it to our students -- and to our state -- to stay the course."

California ranks below the national average in per-pupil spending, although how far below is a subject of intense political debate, and educational advocates contend that slicing billions of dollars from state school appropriations will put the state further behind in academic achievement, while their critics say much of the money is being squandered on administrative overhead and too-generous salaries and fringe benefits for teachers and administrators.

The full NCES report is available here.

The American Cancer Society and other anti-smoking groups are ramping up their campaign to nearly triple California's tax on cigarettes and other tobacco products, citing boosts in other states that leave California with one of the nation's lowest taxes on smoking.

A $1.50 boost in California's 87-cent-per-pack has been part of the Democratic legislative leaders' plan to balance the state budget, saying it would raise $1.2 billion a year to help pay for health care, but Republicans have shunned it and other tax boosts.

The new drive for a tobacco tax boost includes new data indicating that 10 other states, half of them with Republican governors, have boosted their taxes this year, leaving California's tax at the 32nd highest in the nation.

CIgarette taxes range up to $3.46 per pack in Rhode Island after the latest round of tax increases, according to the compilation by the pro-tax coalition.

"Ten states have implemented cigarette and tobacco tax increases in 2009 alone, including Arkansas, Delaware, Hawaii, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wisconsin," said Jim Knox, chief legislative advocate for the American Cancer Society. " California hasn't raised the tax in over ten years and it's about time that we do. A $1.50 increase can help reduce teen smoking rates and save over $8 Billion in health care costs associated with smoking. Our coalition encourages the members of the legislature and Governor Schwarzenegger to support the $1.50 increase."

California's 40 state and local public employee pension systems vary widely in their assumptions of future earnings and other factors, including inflation, and San Diego-based actuarial consultant Rick Roeder has generated a system to rank them by degree of optimism.

By Roeder's calculations the immense California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) is one of the most optimistic, while CalPERS-managed systems for legislators and judges are among the most conservative and the state's other big system, the California State Teachers' Retirement System (CalSTRS) is in the middle.

Roeder's explanation of how these assumptions affect the health of the retirement systems, as well as the detailed rankings, are available here.

California's once-booming export sector is continuing a deep slide, according to an analysis of federal data by the University of California's Sacramento Center.

The weak international economy is dampening demand for California's agricultural products and other goods, Jock O'Connell, a consultant to the UC center said.

California exports totaled $9.5 billion in May, 25.2 percent below the $12.7 billion in goods the state shipped abroad in May of last year. "The May export numbers offer no encouragement that economic recovery will be a near-term thing," O'Connell said. "These were the lowest California export totals for the month of May since 2004."

California's manufactured exports fell by 28.0 percent in May, while agricultural goods and other non-manufactured exports shrunk by 23.3 percent. Re-exports of goods previously imported into the state were off by 15.4 percent.

On a year-to-date basis, California exports are down by 22.6 percent compared to last year when the state's exports totaled $59.9 billion. So far this year, the state's exports have amounted to just $46.4 billion.

Imports through California ports have been hit even harder. The UC analysis of Commerce Department data showed that the value of foreign goods entering the United States through California dropped by 31.7 percent in May.

O'Connell pointed to an International Monetary Fund report issued earlier this week indicating that international demand for goods will continue to be weak. That report forecasts that, of California's leading trading partners, only China is expected to enjoy an expanding economy this year.

The IMF predicts that Mexico, California's top export market in 2008, will see its economy contract by 7.3 percent this year. Canada, the state's second largest export destination, is expecting a 2.3 percent decline..

Despite California's high taxes, the poor are more likely than the rich to leave the state for other locales, the Public Policy Institute of California concludes in an analysis of Census Bureau data - a report that may affect a current political debate over the effects of taxation.

Among poor families, those with incomes of $22,000 or less, 1.73 persons leave California for every one that comes here, PPIC said in a report entitled "Are the Rich Leaving California?" The ratio drops as incomes rise, with those in the top quintile, with incomes of $110,000 up, the least likely to leave. At the very top, families with income of $300,000 or more, the ratio drops to 1.09.

That said, the states without personal income taxes, such as Texas, Nevada and Florida, are the most likely destinations for high-income families and individuals leaving California. However, those states are also among the most frequent destinations of low-income families as well.

The data don't include the latest increase in state taxes, which Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the Legislature passed in February. And they use Census Bureau numbers that disagree with the state's own demographers, who believe the outflow from California is much lower than federal analysts detect.

California is highly dependent on personal income taxes from the highest-income residents. The top 1 percent of taxpayers pay half of state income taxes and about a quarter of all state revenues. Opponents of tax increases argue that raising rates will drive them out of the state, citing golfer Tiger Woods as an example of a high-income Californian who moved to Florida. But the PPIC study bolsters the countervailing view that raising marginal tax rates would have little effect on interstate migration.

The fuller PPIC report is available here.

California's share of the nation's publicly traded corporations, as determined by their market value, peaked a decade ago and has been sliding sharply in recent years, according to a new study by the Pacific Research Institute.

PRI, a conservative think tank based in San Francisco, created a California Enterprise Value Index, using data from Standard & Poor's, and found that even when the economy was hoping in 2006-07, California's business growth lagged that of the nation as a whole and since then, business value has dropped faster.

"The index is a barometer of the relative underperformance or overperformance of California's economy as a result of public policies and other factors," said Lawrence J. McQuillan, director of business and economic studies at PRI, adding that it reflects relative capital-debt inflows to the state, and the willingness of companies to have headquarters in California rather than other states.

"We created the index to help business leaders and lawmakers better understand California's current economic climate -- in particular, we hope that it would serve as a wake-up call to lawmakers," McQuillan added. "California has been steadily falling behind in economic performance relative to other states and sound policies are needed to bring a vibrant business climate back to the state."

The study found that in 1963, the typical California public company enterprise value (EV) was nearly 34 percent greater than the typical EV in America, but today, the typical California EV is nearly 30 percent less than America's typical EV. California's median EV has fallen $43.5 million in just the past two years.

The full PRI report is available here.

California's recession may be hurting other businesses, but it's modestly increasing activity at the state's program of providing low-cost auto insurance.

Smart's California Insurance Report, an industry newsletter, reports that through May, the California Low Cost Auto Insurance Program had written 3,135 new policies, up 11.6 percent from the 2,808 policies during the first five months of 2008.

The program, available to good drivers who fall below income limits, was launched in 2002 as a way of cutting down on uninsured drivers, but became available statewide only in 2007. It's been estimated that as many as 25 percent of California drivers lack liability insurance.

The California Department of Insurance has been staging a promotional campaign to encourage its use. Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a Republican candidate for governor in 2010, has made a number of personal appearances to boost the program.

Applications for coverage, which meet the state's minimum financial responsibilty requirements, are assigned to insurance carriers through a random process.

California is receiving more federal "stimulus" money for transportation projects than any other state, as befits its population, but is only in the middling range when it comes to spending it, according to a compilation of federal data by ProPublica, an independent investigative journalism organization based in New York.

Through June 26, ProPublica said, California had obligated 61 percent of its $1.6 billion allocation of transportation funds meant to create jobs in construction and related fields. Maine topped the list with a 100 percent obligation while Nevada was last at 35 percent.

Nevada notwithstanding, smaller states with smaller allocations generally have moved the fastest to use the money, while larger states such as California, Texas and New York have lagged. Texas, with a second-highest allocation of $1.2 billion, had plowed through just 52 percent, ProPublica said. The organization's state-by-state list is available here.

Workers' compensation insurers collected nearly $11 billion in premiums from California employers last year and incurred slightly more than that in payments to injured workers, medical care for job-related maladies and other expenses, the Workers' Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau reported today.

The annual report provides more fodder for several interlocking political issues, including insurers' demands for premium increases in the face of rising costs, controversy over the 2004 overhaul of the system that reduced employers' costs by tightening eligibility for benefits and even Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's proposal to sell part of the state-owned State Compensation Insurance Fund, the largest provider of work comp insurance, to cover state budget deficits.

The data released today cover only employers with such insurance and not the large employers who are self-insured. The report said that 58 percent of the insurers' direct expenses, $4.1 billion, went to medical care, with "slip and fall" being the most common injury at 28 percent, followed by back injuries at 21 percent.

The remaining 42 percent ($3 billion) was for direct payments to injured workers and other costs, including $276 million to lawyers who represent workers in seeking compensation. The full report can be found here.

Sales of existing homes are continuing to surge in California, according to the California Association of Realtors, but since many of them are distressed properties, median prices are continuing to sag.

Home sales in May were 35.2 percent above those of May 2008, CAR reported today, but the median price was 30.4 percent lower. Nevertheless, the median price of $267,570 was 4.2 percent higher than April's median, and the inventory of unsold homes dropped to 4.2 months in May, less than half the rate a year earlier.

"With affordability for first-time buyers at a record high, sales of existing, single-family homes continued to remain above the 500,000 level for the ninth consecutive month," said CAR president James Liptak. "Buyers are beginning to realize that the combination of favorable home prices, historically low mortgage rates, and first-time home buyer tax credits, may not align again for many years.

Closed escrows of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 556,590 in May at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by CAR. Statewide home resale activity increased 35.2 percent from the revised 411,770 sales pace recorded in May 2008. Sales in May 2009 increased 2.9 percent compared with the previous month.

A full, city-by-city rundown on home sales is available here.

California's highest-income residents are amassing ever-greater shares of personal income while those at the bottom are falling behind when adjustments for inflation are taken into account, according to a new study of state income tax data by the California Budget Project.

The CBP is a think tank in Sacramento that presses for policies that benefit poor and working class Californians and its new study buttresses its contention that current policies favor the rich. It covers trends through 2007, the latest for which data are available, and therefore does not deal with income effects of the current recession.

"One-quarter (25.2 percent) of total AGI went to the wealthiest 1 percent of taxpayers in 2007, nearly twice their share (13.8 percent) in 1993, the earliest year for which data are available. In contrast, taxpayers with incomes in the middle of the distribution had just 10.0 percent of total AGI in 2007, down from 13.0 percent in 1993," the new CPB study concludes.

"This means that the top 1 percent of taxpayers received 25 times their proportionate share of AGI in 2007, while middle-income taxpayers received half of their proportionate share of income. If the share of income going to the wealthiest 1 percent of taxpayers had remained the same since 1993, the bottom 99 percent of taxpayers would have had an additional $123 billion in income in 2007 - equal to $8,388 each."

The distribution of personal income is an important economic index because the deficit-ridden state budget is dependent on personal income taxes for more than half of its support, and the top 1 percent of taxpayers account for half of income tax revenues. Those revenues have dropped sharply in the last two years, largely because of declines in capital gains income by the wealthy.

A commission appointed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and state legislators will soon deliver a plan for overhauling the state's taxation system, aimed at making it less volatile, and one of its recommendations is likely to be some kind of flat income tax that would reduce reliance on taxes from the wealthy and increase the burden on middle- and lower-income taxpayers.

The full CBP report is available here.

Although the economy is mired in recession, Californians are continuing to upgrade their access to the Internet, a new study by the Public Policy Institute of California has found.

The PPIC survey found that broadband Internet access increased by 7 percentage points to 62 percent of Californians during the past year and at-home Internet access is up 4 points to 67 percent while overall Internet use rose 6 points and computer ownership by 3 points to 75 percent.

"Californians increasingly see their computers and the Internet as necessities, not luxuries," says Mark Baldassare, PPIC president. "At a time when most economic indicators are going down, these technology indicators are going up."

There are, however, significant differences in Internet access and use along ethnic lines with just over half of Latinos (52 percent) having home computers, in contrast to 89 percent of Asian Americans, 87 percent of whites and 75 percent of African-Americans. And only 39 percent of Latinos have broadband Internet service, far lower than the percentages for other ethnic groups.

The full PPIC survey of computer use is available here.

Enrollment in California's "independent study" high schools has surged by 44 percent in the last eight years, a new study by WestEdt, a San Francisco-based educational research organization, has found.

The state's 231 independent study schools - those in which 75 percent or more of students pursue educations more or less on their own - now handle about 4 percent of California's nearly two million high school students, the Wested researchers found.

"About half of the independent study high schools targeted a specific student population, mainly students at risk of school failure and home study students," EdWest's summary of the study said. "These schools were less likely than other schools to be located in urban areas or to have opened before 2001/02, while more likely to be charter schools or offer instruction below ninth grade."

There are marked differences in ethnic, socioeconomic and gender makeup between students in the independent study schools and those in traditional high schools. Independent study students are 44.4 percent white, for instance, while those at traditional schools are less than a third white. Independent students are also 54.6 percent male and roughly two-thirds less likely to be "socioeconomically disadvantaged" than traditional students, with only a few of them classified as English-learners.

"This report begins to fill a void about what is known of these schools, which have shown a sharp increase in enrollment," Vanessa X. Barrat, the report's lead author and a senior research associate at WestEd. "The study should be useful for educators and policymakers given the interest in public education alternatives to traditional schools to meet wide-ranging student needs, continuing parent demand for choice in their children's education, and NCLB accountability requirements."

The report can be found here.

California, whose growth has been tied to migration from other states and nations for decades, has evolved into a state that must look inward for future workers and leaders, a new study by the University of Southern California's Population Dynamics Research Group concludes.

Declining in-migration, high birth rates and a strong inclination of those born in the state to remain here are all part of the changing profile, the study says. Only four other states have higher rates of retaining those born in the state, and California's rate, 66.9 percent, is markedly higher than the national rate of 50 percent.

"California is undergoing profound change from a land of migrants to one with a much more settled population," says the demographic study. "A majority of young adults, and soon the middle-aged, are native Californians whose entire lives have been shaped in the state.

"These homegrown citizens are also much more deeply rooted than other residents, and they represent a tremendous resource for California's future. However, the middle-aged voters and leaders of the state may not have fully appreciated the transformation that has occurred; nor have they fully committed to the new future of the state."

"There is no foreseeable wave of migration that is coming from outside California to save us," the analysis continues. "If we fail to invest in the children of California, we will only be shortchanging ourselves."

The study found, as have other analyses, that the severe recession that buffeted California during the early 1990s sent hundreds of thousands of people -- some believe as many as a million -- out of the state seeking work. But since then, the USC researchers found, there's a much larger tendency to stay put. But the study stopped short, because data were lacking, of the effects of the most recent, even more severe recession.

The federal Census Bureau contends that there has been a strong outflow of people from California during the past decade, but the state Department of Finance's demographic unit disputes that contention, and the conflict presumably will be resolved by the 2010 census.

The full USC study is available here.

California lost 21 percent of its manufacturing jobs during the first seven years of this decade, according to a new study by the Milken Institute, which cited the state's "reputation for an unfriendly business climate, comparatively high tax rates, a restrictive regulatory climate and unsustainable government spending" for the decline.

The report did note that the decline was virtually the same as the national loss of manufacturing jobs during the seven-year period, although it was more than 50 percent higher than the seven states Milken views as being competitive with California for factory investment.

The report compares California's performance and policies to those of seven "peer" states - Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Oregon, Texas and Washington - chosen for their increasing share of U.S. manufacturing jobs and production, especially in high-tech manufacturing.

The report's preparation was sponsored, in part, by the California Manufacturers and Technology Association, which lobbies for state policies to protect and increase the manufacturing sector, ranging from more vocational education to regulatory reform.

Among the report's recommendations are streamlining regulatory procedures, more coordination among public agencies, private-public partnerships, encouraging students to pursue technical educations, and creating "incubation centers" to encourage manufacturing.
The full report is available here.

California's general fund budget is dependent on personal income taxes for about half of its support, which is why it and other states with high dependence are feeling the nation's most severe budget pinches, a new study by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Government Institute reveals.

"The April 15 deadline for personal income tax returns brought very bad news for many states," says the report, called "April Is the Cruelest Month."

Overall, state income tax collections this year are running 27 percent below what they were a year ago, the Rockefeller survey found, although a few states actually reported increases.

California's income tax revenue decline, 33.8 percent, is the fourth highest in the nation but the other states reporting higher percentages - Arizona, South Carolina and Michigan - are much less dependent on income taxes. In Arizona, for instance, just a quarter of its general fund revenues come from the income tax.

When those two numbers are combined, the decline in income tax revenues means an overall revenue drop of 16 percent in California, one of the highest numbers in the nation. New York and Massachusetts are faring worse than California, as is Oregon, which has no sales tax and is dependent on income taxes for a whopping 68.5 percent of its revenues.

The full Rockefeller report is available here.

California's charter schools, reflecting those in other states, have generated mixed academic performance results, according to a major new Stanford University study.

Stanford's Center for Research on Education Outcomes (CREDO) examined academic test scores and other data in 15 states and the District of Columbia, embracing about 70 percent of the nation's charter school students, and found what it called "a wide variance" in achievement.

The detailed supplemental report on California found "mixed results between charter school and traditional public school performance," adding, "Reading gains were significantly higher and math gains significantly lower in charter school students compared to their traditional public school peers.

"African-American students attending charter schools performed significantly better in reading, and Hispanic charter school students performed significantly worse in math. For students that are low income, charter schools had a larger and more positive effect on both reading and math compared to their traditional public school peers.

"English language learner students attending charter schools also had a larger and more positive effect on both reading and math than their counterparts in traditional public schools. Special Education charter school students reported significantly higher gains in math than their traditional public school peers."

The full report on California and other states is available here.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger today created the California Complete Count Committee to oversee the upcoming federal census in the Golden State and assigned a threatened agency to oversee the work.

Schwarzenegger said the group, to be coordinated by the Governor's Office of Planning and Research, will help ensure that every Californian is counted during the 2010 census, therefore guaranteeing the state gets its fair share of federal dollars over the ensuing decade.

OPR is one of the state agencies a two-house budget committee has recommended for elimination. The governor, at the time, seemed to agree, calling it "a total waste."

To see the list of appointees, read the jump:

California's exports of manufactured and agricultural products are continuing to decline, down by more than 25 percent from last year, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce and analyzed by the University of California's Sacramento center.

Exports during April were $9.25 billion, 25.5 percent below the $12.42 billion in goods shipped abroad in April 2008, marking the sixth consecutive month of export declines.

"Far from revealing any evidence of an impending economic recovery, California's export trade nose-dived in April," Jock O'Connell, the UC Center's international trade and economics adviser, said.

"In April, we plumbed new depths," O'Connell added. "These are the lowest California export numbers for the month of April since 2005."

The decline in exports was reflected in lower traffic through the state's air and sea ports. The number of outbound loaded containers in April was off by 18.3 percent from April 2008 at neighboring Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, while the Port of Oakland saw a more modest 4.1 percent drop.

International air freight tonnage was off 22.5 percent at Los Angeles International Airport and 34.4 percent at San Francisco International Airport.

The picture on import traffic was no brighter. The UC Center Sacramento analysis showed that the value of foreign goods entering the United States through California dropped by 28.5 percent in April.

Today's "Recessionary Silver Lining" comes from David Crane, who is Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's special adviser for advice on jobs and economic growth. Crane points out that even as deep in the toilet as California's economy has been in the past 18 months, it's still diverse enough that it actually grew (albeit by a tiny 0.4 percent) in 2008.

According to stats compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Golden State's "real Gross Domestic Product" (money spent on goods and services, plus investment and foreign trade, adjusted for inflation) withstood declines in construction, finance and insurance by enjoying slight growth in information, professional and technical services.

Moreover, Crane said in a memo to "interested parties" last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reports that through February of this year, California ranked 16th in terms of late-2008-early-2009 economic performance. (Alaska was first, Oregon last.)

Alas. Crane points out that because California government is so heavily dependent on income tax revenues from wealthy people, and wealthy people's incomes are often dependent heavily on the fortunes of Wall Street, state budget revenues remain pathetically low.

"A tax system that looks more like California's economy will be much more stable than the current system," Crane says.

Heck, we'd probably settle for one that looked like Alaska's...

In the misery-has-company department, we have a report today from the National Conference of State Legislatures, wherein it is disclosed that tax revenue-wise, things are tough all over.

According to an NCSL survey, 35 of 38 states that submitted data said they have collected less personal income tax (PIT) revenues through April of this year than April 2008. (Alabama, Colorado and North Dakota were up. Go figure.)

Those looking for a silver lining or a last-guy sense of superiority will be heartened to learn that four states (New York, Tennessee, Arizona and Michigan) suffered bigger PIT drops than California.

The Golden State was second in the biggest-drop-in-sales-tax-revenues category, to the state of Washington.

"You don't have to look any farther than the state of California to know that having a 'Gordian knot' of conflicting measures acting upon on your state budget is a recipe for disaster." - Colorado state Treasurer Cary Kennedy,
speaking after Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter signed a bill loosening restrictions on general fund spending and establishing a rainy-day reserve fund that will be fed when economic times are good.

California appears to be falling behind the curve on many indicators of socioeconomic wellbeing these days, and the Census Bureau has added another -- access to the Internet, which is no small irony in a state that has spawned so much communications technology.

Although California is slightly above the national average in its residents living in homes with Internet access at 69 percent, according to a new data report, it's well below the national average in individual access to the Internet.

The Census Bureau found that in 2007, just 60.9 percent of the state's residents accessed the Internet from any location, the 16th lowest rate among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The highest level of such access was found in Alaska, 76.1 percent, while the lowest was 51.5 percent in Mississippi.

The full report, which analyzes Internet access by various demographic and economic factors, as well as geographic ones, is available here.

A little bit of good news leaked out of state government today, offsetting the widespread angst about the state's historically serious budget problems.

The state Labor and Workforce Development Agency reported that a five-year, $90 million initiative to increase the state's supply of registered nurses appears to be bearing fruit with substantial increases in nurse training programs, enrollment, faculty and graduates.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger launched the public-private program in 2005 and the agency, an arm of his administration, said in its 2008 report, released today, that 9,580 registered nurses graduated last year, a 54 percent increase in annual nurse production over the previous four years.

More than 23,500 students are currently enrolled in nursing education, a 68.9 percent increase, in 131 nurse training programs, 23 more than existed when the initiative began.

Schwarzenegger hailed the results as "a direct illustration of the success and importance of the public-private partnerships established when I launched the California Nurse Education Initiative in 2005," adding, "Health care jobs are a critical part of a healthy economy -- and we need to continue this fantastic momentum by further helping ensure the California workforce is prepared to fill the healthcare job demands of the future."

Despite the increases in nursing education, however, there are still shortages of registered nurses now and projected into the future, as many as 116,600 nursing job openings by 2020 due to population growth, the aging of the population and the retirement of current nurses from the baby boom generation. At 647 registered nurses per 100,000 population, California is still well below the national average of 825, according to the report.

The full report is accessible here.

When the political debate over how to handle California's uninsured motorists was burning a few years back, it was widely reported that the state had one of the nation's highest rates of uninsured driving.

Mandatory insurance laws have apparently cut into the problem, but California still has one of the nation's higher rates of motorists lacking insurance, according to a chart published by Smart's California Insurance Report, an industry newsletter.

The uninsured rate ranges from 29 percent in New Mexico to 1 percent in Massachusetts (2007 data) with California clocking in at 18 percent, seventh highest.

Although gas prices have retreated from their highs of last year, Californians are continuing to reduce their fuel consumption due to less driving, more efficient cars and/or the recession.

The state Board of Equalization says that Californians burned 1.12 billion gallons of gasoline in February, down from 1.28 billion in February 2008, but the board adds in its monthly report that the actual decline may be only half that apparent amount because of a statistical anomaly.

The average California gas price at the pump in February 2009 was $2.27 per gallon, a 29.7 percent decrease from the average price in February 2008 when it was $3.23. Gasoline sold at the lower price in February 2009 generated approximately $187 million in sales tax during that month, an estimated $117.8 million less than was generated in February 2008.

Diesel fuel totaled 181.8 million gallons in February, an 18.8 percent or 42.2 million-gallon decline from February 2008. The board says that decline probably reflects the decline in freight traffic from the recession. California diesel cost $2.26 in February 2009, down 35.2 percent compared to February 2008, when the average diesel price was $3.49.

"Fuel prices appear to continue to be sensitive to economic conditions, including last year's price spikes and this year's downturn," said board chairwoman Betty Yee. "The overall trends indicate Californians are embracing fuel savings, either through less driving or by driving fuel-efficient vehicles."

The full month-by-month fuel report, dating back to 2000, is available here.

Residential and commercial property values are declining due to the state's recession, causing pain to local governments as property taxes flatten, but the valuations of privately owned utilities are continuing to rise.

Utilities are valued by the state Board of Equalization, rather than local assessors, and the board has pegged their value at $76.9 billion, up $1.2 billion from the previous year. Local governments and school districts will receive an estimated $842.5 billion in taxes from the utilities, a $13 million increase from the previous year.

Pacific Gas and Electric Co. kept its title as the state's largest and most valuable utility at $19.3 billion, followed by Southern California Edison at $12.7 billion.

The full list of utilities and their tax values is available here.

By large margins, California voters want to retain the two-thirds legislative vote requirement for budgets and the state's initiative system that allows voters to pass laws, according to a new attitudinal survey conducted by students at the University of California, Riverside.

Voters also oppose layoff of teachers to narrow the state's budget deficit, and blame the Legislature, more than Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, for the state's chronic fiscal difficulties.

Undergraduate students in the political science class, "Mass Media and Public Opinion," interviewed a 276-person sample of registered California voters between May 11 and May 24 and said the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 5.9 percent at a confidence level of 95 percent.

Despite the relatively low number of respondents, the differences reported are so great that they remain statistically significant, said David Crow, who teaches the class. The course covers all aspects of survey design, including sample selection, questionnaire development, data collection, data analysis, and statistical hypothesis testing.


"The survey is a general assessment of the political climate of California based on fiscal issues," said Crow, associate director of UCR's Survey Research Center. "It also gave our students a chance to study survey research methods through experiential learning."

The two-thirds budget vote, which has been in the state constitution in one form or another for most of the last century, has become a point of partisan contention with Democratic legislative leaders and their allies vowing to ask voters to change it, arguing that it gives the Republican minority too much power over the budget.

The full survey results are available here.

Sales of existing - rather than new - houses are continuing to increase in California, but since many of those homes are bank-owned or otherwise distressed, the median price is still much lower than it was a year ago, the California Association of Realtors reported today.

Sales of existing homes jumped 49.2 percent in April over April 2008, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 540,360. But the median price, while increasing slightly from March to $256,700, was 36.5 percent lower than in April 2008, CAR said.

"Regional sales were impacted by the state's two-tier market," CAR president James Liptak said. "Inventory levels for homes in the under $500,000 segment shrank to nearly three months in April, compared with almost 10 months a year ago, while unsold inventory in the more than $1 million segment rose to approximately 17 months, compared with roughly 10 months in April 2008."

Liptak said the second consecutive month of median price increases may indicate that the California housing market has hit bottom.

Santa Barbara had the state's highest median sales price in April, $870,000, while Laguna Hills saw the highest jump in median prices, 23.1 percent.

A full city-by-city rundown on sales and prices is available here.

The health care reform group Health Access California is out with a report today that notes a million more Californians are out of work now than were out of work 18 months ago - and that means 500,000 more people without health insurance.

The report points out that like most Americans, most Californians derive their health insurance coverage through their jobs. No job, no health care. It also says a third of Californians were uninsured in all or parts of 2007 and 2008, and that nearly one in seven Americans who have become uninsured during the recession live in California.

You can view the report here.

Maybe 200,000 California registered voters just got tired of all these elections.

For whatever reason, the number of registered voters in California has fallen from a record 17.3 million for last November's presidential election to 17.1 million heading into Tuesday's special election.

But the percentage of eligible people registered to vote -- 73.4 percent -- is higher than the 70.7 percent recorded in 2005, the last time California had a special election.

In the latest registration figures released by Secretary of State Debra Bowen, Democrats account for 44.5 percent of the electorate, Republicans for 31 percent, and decline-to-state voters for 20 percent.

California's exports of products and services to other countries are continuing to deteriorate with the global recession, says a new analysis of data by the University of California's Sacramento center.

California exports totaled totaled $9.8 billion in March, down 20.9 percent below the $12.4 billion the state exported in the same month last year, according to figures compiled by the UC center from data released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Manufactured exports declined by 24.8 percent while shipments of agricultural products and and other non-manufactured exports shrank by 13.6 percent, despite a surge in rice exports during March:

"California's export trade continues to show little evidence of imminent recovery," said Jock O'Connell, the UC Center's international trade and economics adviser, noting that March was the fifth straight month iof export decline from previous years.

State schools chief Jack O'Connell said today that the state's high school dropout rate for the 2007-08 school year had shown "a very slight improvement" over the past year to 20.1 percent.

That's one percentage point lower than the number released a year ago, which for the first time used some student-by-student tracking data but O'Connell said that it will take four full years of assigning students specific numbers to extract hard data.

"The dropout rate in California is still unacceptably high," O'Connell told reporters in a conference call prior to making a live announcement at a school in Fresno. He said that the rates are especially high among African-American and Latino students.

The Department of Education numbers are highly controversial among outside researchers, with some contending that the true rate is as high as one-third, with some urban school districts losing 50 percent or more of those who enter the ninth grade.

Californians know California has a water crisis and are willing to reduce consumption to deal with it, a new poll by a San Jose State University project has found.

The poll by the Survey and Policy Research Institute found that 78 percent of Californians know Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has declared a drought emergency and 79 percent expressed willingness to reduce water use, with environmental enhancement the major motivation.

However, the poll also found widespread misconceptions about water and its use, with just a quarter of them knowing that agriculture is the largest single user of water - about as many who believe that households are the big users.

"The survey results indicate that local agencies and media have been successful at getting the word out about the drought, and that residents are willing to conserve," Katherine Cushing, an associate professor of environmental studies who developed survey questions, said in a statement. "But at the same time, Californians lack important knowledge about water use in the state and opportunities for conservation among the different segments of water consumers."

Jobs, incomes, house prices and government revenues all may be declining, but California's community colleges are seeing a sharp bump in enrollment - three times as great as the state budget anticipates and finances.

Jack Scott, chancellor of the community college system, says a survey found enrollments up at 103 of the state's 110 two-year colleges with an overall gain of 6.4 percent, about 150,000 students, over last year.

"These enrollment reports are confirming what college leaders have been saying from the beginning of the academic year - the demand for community college education and training is surging," Scott said. "With statewide unemployment at 11.2 percent, California's displaced workers are pursuing the training they need to get back in the workforce. The colleges are also seeing more demand from students who were not able to enter the University of California or California State University due to restricted admissions."

The current state budget provided financing for a 2 percent enrollment increase, meaning colleges are taking in students for which they lack direct financing. That, college officials said, means overflowing classrooms and long waiting lists for classes.


Despite a severe recession, California's population continued to grow in 2008, largely due to its continued high birthrate.

The state Department of Finance reported today that the state's population grew by 409,000 during the year, reaching 38,293,000, based on its calculation of statistical indices.

The growth, at 1.1 percent, is a bit lower than in other recent years. Demographers believe that the economy has discouraged the state's traditionally high level of immigration, while impelling others to seek better opportunities in other states. But births, running well over 500,000 a year, pushed the population upward, nonetheless.

Fresno replaced Long Beach as the state's fifth most populous state during the year, demographers said, as its population hit 495,513, while San Jose saw its population rise to just over 1 million. Sand City, a tiny suburb of Monterey, was the state's fastest growing city, reaching a population of 312.

The complete report, which includes county-by-county and city-by-city data, is available here.

Not surprisingly, as recession began to grip California in 2007, personal income flattened out, as a new report from the Franchise Tax Board indicates.

Adjusted gross income (AGI) totaled just under $1.2 trillion on 2007 personal income tax returns and the median income on the 15.8 million returns, $35,646, was just three-quarters of one percent higher than 2006, FTB says. Median income is the point at which half of reported incomes are below that mark and half are above, but is not the same as average. The average AGI reported on 2007 returns was about $76,000.

Four Bay Area counties continued to report the highest median incomes, topped by Marin County's $53,673 ($123,463 for joint returns), followed by San Mateo, Santa Clara and San Francisco . Outside the Bay Area, El Dorado County ranked fifth at $45,523 and Placer was sixth at $44,604.

At the other end of the economic scale, Imperial County was last at $23,851, falling below Tulare at $25,960. All of the other lowest-income counties were in the agricultural Central Valley.

The full 2007 report, plus those from past years, can be found here.

California's home sales continued on a torrid pace in March, fueled by low interest rates and a glut of distressed properties - which meant that median prices remained very low, according to a new report by the California Association of Realtors.

Sales of existing, single-family homes hit 522,980 in March, up 63.8 percent over March, 2008, according to CAR, but the median price of $253,040 was 39 percent lower than a year earlier. It was, however, the first month-to-month increase in nearly two years, up from $247,590 in February.

"The March sales figure of 522,980 homes indicates that the market continues to be very active," said CAR president James Liptak. "All of the regions in the state experienced increases in month-to-month raw sales, with the smallest gain in the Sacramento region at 9.7 percent and the largest gain in the Riverside/San Bernardino region at 32.2 percent."

The CAR report was issued, however, just as a new economic study from the University of California, Santa Barbara, Economic Forecast Project was issued, projecting that California's median home prices would continue to erode and fall below $200,000 next year.

The "high desert" region of Southern California had the state's lowest median price of $114,670 last month while Santa Clara County was the highest at $448,920. The details of the CAR report, including a city-by-city breakdown of median prices, is accessible here.

The unemployment rate's unrelenting march further into double figures continued in March to 11.2 percent in California, according to the latest data from the California Employment Development Department.

The unemployment rate spiked from 10.6 percent in February -- and from 6.4 percent in March 2008. The new data is based on a federal survey of 5,500 California households.

The state lost 62,100 nonfarm jobs in the last month, according to a different, larger survey.

Nationally, the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.5 percent.

California is failing to produce the college-educated workers it will need to staff the technologically sophisticated economy of the future, a new study by the Public Policy Institute of California concludes.

The PPIC study found that there will be a million-person gap between what the state's public colleges and universities will graduate and what the state will need in 2025 due to economic expansion and retirement of baby boom generation workers.

"California faces a critical challenge," Hans Johnson, PPIC associate director and senior fellow, who co-authored the report with Ria Sengupta, said in a statement accompanying release of the report. "But the good news is the state can dramatically improve the prospects for its economic growth and the futures of its young adult residents with relatively modest investments in the pathways students take to college graduation."

The study notes that in 1960, California was eighth among the states in the share of its adult population with college degrees, but by 2006, it had fallen to 23rd place. At the current pace, PPIC says, by 2025 only 35 percent of the state's adults will have at least a bachelor's degree while 41 percent of workers are projected to need such levels of education.

The study recommends, among other steps, raising the graduation rate of state college and university system students from 50 percent within six years of starting college to at least 62 percent, increasing the transfer rate from community colleges to four-year institutions, and getting more high school graduates enrolled in college. California, it says, ranks 40th among the states in graduates seeking higher education.

The full PPIC report is available here.

California fares poorly in an evaluation of each state's economic competitiveness by the conservative, Washington-based American Legislative Exchange Council.

The state is 43rd in the rankings and is singled out for special scorn in the report, including one chapter that compares California directly with Texas.

"The decline of California is probably the best evidence that we can present as to the impact of poor state policy making on the economic pulse of a state," the report says. "California continues to increase regulations, raise taxes and spend profligately. Texas, on the other hand, has a pro-growth economic environment with a competitive tax system, sound regulations and spending discipline that will help Texas maintain its superior performance well into the future."

Conservative economist Arthur Laffer is a co-author of the study and one chapter recounts his version of how Proposition 13, the landmark 1978 property tax limit measure, was passed and implemented and how California fared thereafter.

The full report is available here.

California's once-vibrant export trade is continuing to plummet, according to new data from the Department of Commerce.

The state's exports totaled $9.1 billion in February, nearly 20 percent below February, 2008, the University of California's Sacramento Center calculated from the federal data. Manufactured exports dropped 20.3 percent while agricultural goods and other non-manufactured products were 20.6 percent lower.

"California's export trade is showing few symptoms of imminent recovery," Jock O'Connell, the UC Center's international trade and economics adviser, said, noting that February was the fourth consecutive month in which California's exports fell well below the same months in the preceding year.

The decreases were reported in both waterborne and airborne exports, including a 37 percent decline at the Port of Long Beach and a 38.3 percent drop at Oakland International Airport.

"Even though exports are a lagging economic indicator," O'Connell warned, "it is likely to be several months before we start seeing a sustained turnaround in our export trade," adding that import traffic is down even more, some 39.6 percent in February.

"All in all, it's be a terrible few months for people who make, sell and transport goods around the world," he concluded.

More than a quarter of California youngsters attending seventh grade classes in 2001-02 failed to graduate from high school in 2007, and in one major community dropouts outnumbered graduates, according to a new statistical study by the California Dropout Research Project, based at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

The state's 480,595 seventh-graders had shrunken to 356,641 high school graduates, the UCSB researchers found. The numbers are similar to those of other dropout research projects, but UCSB's team went further, ascribing economic losses and violent crimes to the dropout phenomenon.

The project asserts that California will see $24.2 billion in economic losses, both lower wages and higher government and crime costs, from that one class's dropouts and will also experience some 28,000 more violent crimes.

In addition to computing dropout rates for the state, UCSB's data miners calculated them for 17 cities, including all of the largest ones, and found wide variances. Stockton easily had the highest dropout rate, with dropouts outnumbering graduates, 2,775 to 2,695. But Los Angeles wasn't far behind, with a 48 percent dropout rate.

The state and local dropout numbers are available here.

Driven by low interest rates and a hot market in distressed properties, sales of previously owned homes in California jumped by 83 percent in February over February 2008, the California Association of Realtors reported today.

The robust market in lender-owned and distressed houses also drove down the median sales price by nearly 41 percent from $418,260 last year to $247,590, CAR reported.

"Home sales in California continue to be considerably stronger than the nationwide sales figures," said association president James Liptak. "The market will continue to register large, but diminishing year-to-year percentage gains in the coming months, as current sales are compared against the extremely low numbers that prevailed during the early months of the credit crunch."

Santa Barbara had the state's highest median sales price in February, $897,000, while the lowest median, $121,970, was recorded in the "high desert" region of Southern California, which also had the state's highest increase in sales, 203.1 percent over the previous February.

The complete, county-by-county and city-by-city home sales report is available here.

California is a baby factory that produced 566,352 infants in 2007, far more than any other state, according to a new statistical report from the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

California's bumper crop of babies reflected not only the state's highest-in-the-nation population but its markedly above-average birth and fertility rates, the compilation released this week reveals.

The state's birthrate, 15.56 per 1,000 population, is more than a full baby above the national average of 14.3 and among the higher rates among the states, which ranged from 20.6 in Utah to 10.5 in Vermont. Only Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Nevada and Texas had higher birthrates than California.

California's fertility rate, 72.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44, was also higher than the national average of 69.5 and, like its birthrate, among the highest state-by-state rankings, which Utah also topped at 94.4.

California's births work out to more than one baby a minute and are the largest single factor in the state's continued population growth, which is expected to be close to 5 million during this decade.

The state's births dipped sharply in the late 1990s, due largely to a severe recession earlier in the decade, but have returned to the 550,000-plus per year level since then. The late 1990s dip created a lull in school enrollment during this decade, even a slight dip, but the renewed high level of births since then indicate that school enrollment will begin to climb soon.

The full statistical report on births is available here.

Voter registration in California continued to increase even after last November's presidential election and now stands at 17.3 million, Secretary of State Debra Bowen reported today.

Although registration climbed by about 30,000 from last November, the percentage of potentially eligible voters that has registered declined fractionally to 74.4 percent. Both registration and penetration of the eligible pool have, however, increased dramatically in the last two years. The corresponding snapshot in 2007 had registration at 15.7 million, 68.9 percent of eligible.

Democrats have widened their lead over Republicans a bit since last November, but have seen a gain of two percentage points since 2007 to 44.52 percent while the GOP has dropped from 31.4 percent two years ago to 31.14 percent now.

The complete registration report with data by county, legislative and congressional district is available here.

Just under half of California's high school graduates continue their educations in public colleges and universities, but research by the California Postsecondary Education Commission shows wide variances in college attendance by geography, gender and ethnicity.

One of many charts created by the CPEC, for instance, breaks down post-high school education by state Senate district, showing that 66.1 percent of graduates in Sen. Tom Harmon's district - a wealthy slice of Orange County coastline - attended community college, a state university or the University of California after graduation in 2007. But the proportion dropped to a low of 26.4 percent in Sen. Dean Florez's largely agricultural and heavily Latino district in the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley.

An even wider geographic range was found in the county-by-county breakdown, from a low of 11.7 percent in Shasta County to a high of 83.4 percent in adjacent Siskiyou County.

The CPEC statistical compilation found that ethnically, Asian American high school graduates were most likely to attend public colleges, 68.8 percent, while whites, at 42.4 percent, were least likely. African American and Latino graduates both were slightly more likely than whites to seek college educations.

Statewide, community colleges handled nearly 62 percent of the college-bound graduates in 2007, with the University of California accounting for about 15 percent and the state university system the remaining 23 percent. But there are huge disparities, especially ethnic ones, in those data as well.

A quarter of the state's Asian American high school graduates attend the University of California, but just 4 percent of African American and Latino graduates go on to UC, and just 5.7 percent of whites.

There's also a big gender gap. While 8 percent of female high school graduates are admitted to UC, just 6.4 percent of males attend UC - even though overall college attendance is virtually equal in the two genders.

The complete set of college attendance data sheets is available here.

Even with recent and proposed increases in fees, attending California's community colleges and four-year universities is still a bargain, the California Postsecondary Education Commission finds in a new comparison with other states.

The state's community college fees, now $600 a year for a full 15-unit load, are, by far, the lowest in the nation - just two-thirds of what students in second-lowest New Mexico pay. The national average is $2,700, 4 1/2 times the California level.

Undergraduate fees at the California State University System are also the lowest among the state-operated four-year university systems that California uses for salary comparison purposes. CSUS fees are $3,849 this year, slightly over half of the $7,516 average among the 15 other state systems, which are topped by the $10,800 at New Jersey's Rutgers University.

University of California fees, $8,027 this year, are not quite the lowest among the four state universities used for comparison. The University at Buffalo (New York) holds that place, but UC is second lowest and nearly $2,000 under the $9,905 average. The University of Illinois, $12,106, is the highest among the comparable universities.

The complete CPEC report, which includes graduate fees and historic comparisons both in current and constant dollars, is available here.

Californians don't have the nation's lowest bills for homeowners' insurance, but they're also far below the highest, according to a report by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.

The survey, covering data through 2006, found that California families paid an average of $937 for a year's homeowners' insurance, an increase of 4.7 percent from the previous year, slightly below the 5.2 percent national average.

Average premiums ranged from a high of $1,409 in Texas to a low of $490 in Wisconsin that year. A few states, including Wisconsin, reported declines in their average rates. At the other end of the scale, Floridians were jolted by a 28 percent increase, bringing their average bills to $1,386, just behind Texas.

The survey results were reported in Smart's California Insurance Report, a newsletter.

When it comes to protecting children's interests, there are no 100 percenters in the California Legislature, the San Diego-based Children's Advocacy Institute says.

The institute chose 25 votes in the 2008 legislative session dealing with education, poverty, health care, safety, child care, child protection and other child-related issues and compiled legislators' votes.

The lowest-ranked legislator was Assemblywoman Sharon Runner, R-Lancaster, with a score of just 20 percent, while the lowest ranked senator was Democrat Ed Vincent, D-Inglewood, at 24 percent. Both Runner and Vincent, however, suffered from severe health problems during the year and their low scores reflected absences when many of the votes were taken.

No legislator voted as the institute preferred 100 percent of the time but 10 senators and 31 Assembly members, all Democrats, achieved 96 percent scores. The full scorecard is available here.

Exports, which had been one of the brightest sectors of the California economy in recent years, plunged by more than 20 percent in January, a new analysis of federal data by the University of California's Sacramento center reveals.

The U.S. Department of Commerce statistics were released today, and the UC analysis says California's merchandise export trade in January totaled $8.661 billion, 21.6 percent below the $11.048 billion recorded in January 2008. The state's manufactured exports were down 21. percent, while non-manufactured exports (chiefly agricultural goods) were off 28.6 percent.

"These distressing January numbers describe an accelerating turn for the worse in California's export trade," Jock O'Connell, the UC Center's international trade and economics adviser, said. "January's fall-off was much more severe than the declines recorded in the prior two months."

January was the third consecutive month in which state exports fell below the level reported for the same months in the preceding year. November's exports were 6.3 percent lower than November 2007, while December's exports were down 13.7 percent from the preceding December.

At the Port of Oakland, the number of loaded containers outbound in January was down 15.2 percent. Even more pronounced declines in outbound movements of loaded containers were seen at the Ports of Los Angeles ( down 29.4 percent) and Long Beach (off 27.3 percent).

At Los Angeles International Airport export tonnage was down in January by 21.3 percent, while San Francisco International Airport saw a 28.1 percent reduction.

California accounted for 11.1 percent of the nation's merchandise export trade in January, much below its all-time peak share of 17.0 percent recorded in December 2000.

"Preliminary figures for February hardly depict an improving situation," O'Connell warned.

"It could be several months before we begin seeing signs of substantial improvement in California's export trade, and that is not good news for California workers."


University of California health researchers have found a statistical connection between the proximity of fast food restaurants to obesity among California's ninth-graders and pregnant women -- but have not established a causal relationship.

Results of the detailed study by UC-Berkeley economists were released today, adding fuel to a burgeoning debate over whether the proliferation of fast-food outlets contributes to the nation's obesity problem.

"These findings add new evidence to the debate on the impact of fast-food on obesity," the research report concludes. "First, we believe we have uncovered credible evidence that the availability of fast food has an effect on the obesity rate of teens and on weight gain in pregnant women. Second, we show that the effects of proximity are quite different for students (who are constrained to stay close to schools during the school day) than for mothers, who presumably are more mobile."

The study found that ninth-graders were 5.2 percent more likely to be obese if their schools were within a tenth of a mile of a fast-food restaurant, but the statistical correlation faded at longer distances. A similar correlation was found for pregnant women living near fast-food outlets. The statistical connections, however, were markedly higher for Latinos and African Americans than for whites, and the researchers added that the study "leaves several questions unanswered."

"The overall quantitative contribution of the expansion of the fast-food industry to the increase in obesity rate remains unclear," was the report's bottom line. "Relatively few schools are located within .1 mile of a fast food restaurant, so the impact identified by our paper applies to a relatively small population. And, while large numbers of pregnant women live within half a mile of a fast food restaurant, the majority does not.

"We cannot speculate about the generalizability of our research to other samples. It is possible that adolescents and pregnant women are uniquely vulnerable to the temptations of fast food. In addition, our research cannot distinguish between a rational price-based explanation of the findings and a behavioral self-control-based explanation. Finally, since fast food is ubiquitous in America, we cannot study the impact of fast-food entry in a society where fast food is scarce."

The full report is available here.

For anyone interested in the ins and outs of local government in California, the basic guide is what's known as the "Quick List," a compilation of laws, Web sites and other information about cities and counties. An updated version has just been completed.

The Quick List is compiled by staff members of the Senate Local Government Committee under its longtime chief consultant, Peter Detwiler. It covers everything from "A" -- AB8, the law that divvies up property taxes among local governments and schools -- to "Z," everything you wanted to know about land zoning.

Not only is the Quick List comprehensive, but it's freely available here.

Two decades ago, it was estimated that as many as a third of California's motorists were driving without insurance, but a series of get-tough laws reduced the rate by more than half to 18 percent, according to a new nationwide survey by the Insurance Research Council.

Nevertheless, at 18 percent (in 2007), the IRC still tags California as having the nation's seventh highest rate of uninsured motorists at four-plus percentage points above the national average. New Mexico had the nation's highest rate of uninsured at 29 percent while Massachusetts, at 1 percent, was the lowest.

The IRC believes that the severe national recession will raise the uninsured motorist rate throughout the country from 13.8 in 2007 to 16.1 percent in 2010.

California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner has suggested even tougher laws to crack down on uninsured motorists, but none has been passed in recent years, Smart's California Insurance Report notes in its article on the IRC study.

Criminal corrections - prisons, jails, parole and probation - have been California's fastest growing public expense in recent years with the state's correctional costs doubling in the last decade to about $10 billion a year.

Even so, a new report by the Pew Center on the States, released today, indicates that California is far from being the toughest state in terms of locking up its residents. Nationwide, Pew says, 1 in 31 adults - about 7.3 million men and women altogether - are either behind bars or under parole or probation supervision for crimes. But in California it's one in 36, slightly below the national average. Even so, that amounts to about 750,000 Californians, with more than a fifth of them in state prison.

Georgia, with one of every 13 adults in the correctional system, has the highest ratio, with Idaho, at one of 18, in second place. At the other end of the scale are New Hampshire, with one of 88 adults, and adjacent Maine at one of 81. Among larger states, Texas and Florida have substantially higher ratios than California while New York is much lower at just one in 53.

In 2008, Pew says, the 34 states "for which data are available" spent about $20 billion on prisons, probation and parole, but for some reason the study omitted California which spends more than half that sum all by itself when probation and parole costs are included.

The report, whose chief purpose is to advocate more community-based corrections programs and less imprisonment, does bolster those who say California's correctional system is extraordinarily expensive. The average cost for the 34 states in the survey was $29,000 per prison inmate per year, while in California, state prison officials tab costs at about $45,000 per year for the 170,000 men and women behind bars, accounting for roughly three-fourths of correctional spending. The rest is spent on hundreds of thousands of parolees.

The full Pew study is available here.

A third of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's judicial appointees have been women - virtually the same percentage as the state's licensed attorneys - according to an annual report by the administration.

Asian-American, African American and Latino appointees by Schwarzenegger all exceed their proportion of State Bar members, according to the report - especially the latter. While Latinos are just 3.8 percent of the state's attorneys, they have been 10.1 percent of the judges appointed by Schwarzenegger in the last five years.

White males, 84.4 percent of the state's lawyers, were given two-thirds of the judicial appointments, indicating that most of the non-white appointees were women.

"I am proud of the hard work by my administration to ensure high quality judicial appointments and I remain confident that the diversity on our benches will only continue to grow as the state bar and law schools throughout California become more diverse," Schwarzenegger said in a statement accompanying the report.

The report was released under legislation Schwarzenegger signed in 2006, requiring disclosure of gender and ethnic makeup of judicial appointees.

California's unemployment rate hit double digits last month for the first time in more than a quarter-century, with a half-million fewer jobholders than the state had a year earlier.

The state jobless rate of 10.1 percent was topped slightl;y by the 10.8 percent rate in Los Angeles County, the Employment Development Department said, but data for other counties are still being compiled.

The biggest job losses were recorded in the construction industry, down 15.5 percent in the last year. Overall, 1.8 million Californians were unemployed last month, about twice as many as there were before the current recession began.


"The number of Californians without jobs and a means to provide for their families is a sobering reminder that there is nothing more important than getting California's economy back on track," Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said in a statement. "The road to full economic recovery will not be short, but the economic stimulus measures I fought tirelessly to include in the state budget combined with the federal economic recovery agenda will help California create jobs - while laying a strong foundation for better economic times ahead."

The full EDD report is available here.

Sales of existing homes in California have been soaring, thanks largely to the availability of so many distressed, relatively low-priced properties, according to a new report from the California Association of Realtors.

Existing home sales increased 100.8 percent in January over the same month a year earlier, dropping the median price 40.5 percent to $254,350 over the year.

"Statewide sales in January edged past the 600,000 threshold for the first time since October 2005," said CAR president James Liptak. "The strength in California home sales in recent months signifies that the market is gradually working its way through the large numbers of distressed sales that have followed in the wake of the troubled mortgage problem. With favorable home prices and historically low mortgage rates, affordability in the California housing market is now at its highest since the start of the decade."

The state's most robust increase in home sales, as well as the lowest prices, were reported in the "high desert" area of Southern California. The CAR sales report is available here while the county-by-county and city-by-city data on sales prices is accessible here.

As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and state legislators wrangled over how to close a huge state budget deficit earlier this month, both he and lawmakers saw their approval ratings among Californians drop sharply, a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found.

Schwarzenegger's rating dropped from 40 percent in January to 34 percent among registered voters in the poll that was concluded Feb. 17, two days before he and legislators made a final deal on the budget. The Legislature's approval, meanwhile, dropped to 18 percent among registered voters and 14 percent among likely voters.

Those low numbers stood in sharp contrast with President Barack Obama's 67 percent approval among registered voters, including a plurality of Republicans and 53 percent of those who labeled themselves as conservatives.

Most of PPIC's poll, however, was devoted to abortion, birth control and population growth. It found that while two-thirds of Californians don't want the U.S. Supreme Court to completely overturn its Roe v. Wade decision that established abortion rights, there is an increasing sentiment, now 35 percent, for putting some restrictions on abortions.

"There is no question that California is still a pro-choice state," Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and survey director, said as the poll was released. "But there are strong elements of disagreement over abortion policy, whether because of political polarization or demographic changes."

The poll also found a widespread misconception among Californians that immigration, especially illegal immigration, is the primary source of California's population growth rather than births, which are the true driver of growth.

The full poll report is available at PPIC's Web site, here.

Bottled water, increasingly popular because of its convenience and presumed purity, also consumes a lot of energy to produce and transport, according to an exhaustive new study by Oakland-based Pacific Institute.

Bottled water is up to 2,000 times more energy-intensive than tap water, the study found, and consumes the equivalent of 32 million to 54 million barrels of oil annually in the U.S., about one-third of 1 percent of the nation's energy consumption.

"As bottled water use continues to expand around the world, there is growing interest in the environmental, economic, and social implications of that use, including concerns about waste generation, proper use of groundwater, hydrologic effects on local surface and groundwater, economic costs, and more. But a key concern is how much energy is required to produce and use bottled water," said article co-author Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute. "It turns out the answer is, a lot."

Bottled water consumption in the nation has been estimated at 33 billion liters a year, roughly half that of carbonated beverages. California's share of that is roughly 12 percent or 4 billion liters, some of which is produced in the state from natural springs or municipal supplies and some imported from as far away as Europe and the Pacific Islands.

Four billion liters are roughly 3,000 acre-feet of water, which is scarcely a trickle in hydrological terms. About 200 million acre-feet of water flow through California's rivers and streams in an average year (an acre-foot is the equivalent of one acre of water one foot deep or 325,851 gallons) so the bottled water that flows through Californians' gullets each year works out to be nothing more than a figurative drop in the bucket. By way of comparison, Shasta Lake, when full, contains about 4.5 million acre-feet of water and Folsom Lake about 1 million.

For those interested in exploring the energy consumption of bottled water, the full report is available here.

Cash-strapped states have been increasing taxes on cigarettes so much that California, which once had one of the nation's higher smoking taxes, is now 31st, the American Cancer Society says in beginning a drive to raise the state's tobacco levies.

California's cigarette tax was last raised in a 1998 ballot measure that dedicated proceeds to children's programs. It now stands at 87 cents a pack with other states ranging as high as $2.75 in New York. The national average, the Cancer Society says, is now $1.20 after Arkansas boosted its smoking levy from 59 cents to $1.15.

"An increase in California's tobacco tax is long overdue," says Jim Knox, vice president of the Cancer Society's California division, adding that 44 other states have increased cigarette taxes 89 times since California last saw a boost.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger included a cigarette tax boost in his massive health care proposal two years ago, only to see it die in the state Senate. The tobacco industry had vowed to wage a multi-million-dollar campaign against the measure if it had passed.

The Cancer Society contends that a cigarette tax boost - it's proposing $1.50 a pack increase - would not only raise much-needed money for the state, as much as $1 billion a year, but also counteract a recently discovered increase in the incidence of smoking in the state. It wants a portion of the new tax to be dedicated to anti-smoking programs.

California's declining home prices are a headache to the real estate and development industries and personal pain for homeowners with upside-down mortgages, but there is a silver lining - increasing affordability for families with modest incomes.

The California Association of Realtors reported today that price declines mean 59 percent of California's families could afford to buy an entry-level home in the last quarter of 2008, a big jump from the 33 percent of a year earlier.

The minimum household income needed to buy a $248,030 home last quarter was $48,900, assuming a 10 percent down payment and an adjustable interest rate of 6.02 percent, with a monthly payment of $1,630. The entry-level price is generally considered to be 85 percent of the prevailing median home price.

At 76 percent, the "high desert" of Southern California was the state's most affordable region last quarter - rising above the national average of 72 percent. At 44 percent, San Luis Obispo County was the least affordable region, just below Los Angeles County's 46 percent.

The full region-by-region affordability report, plus historical data, are available here.

Southern California is expected to add another six million persons to its population by 2035, becoming as populous as the entire state was in 1980.

Can the region cope with that growth by providing adequate housing, water and other amenities while easing its worst-in-the-nation traffic congestion? Yes, says a new Regional Comprehensive Plan generated by the Southern California Association of Governments, the long-range planning agency for six of the region's seven counties (San Diego County does planning on its own).

But, SCAG says, the region can avoid civic decline only if it is willing to undertake big changes in its land use, water and transportation policies. "Everything is connected," says an introduction to the plan. "Our region functions as a complex interconnection of environmental, social, cultural, economic, and other systems. Ignoring problems in one area can have ripple effects in another. For example, a warming planet can have profound implications for water supply, energy, and other resource areas that depend on a stable climate. Further, problems in one city can spill over onto adjoining cities, reminding us that we are connected in visible and not-so-visible ways."

The full report, which runs 164 pages, is available here.

The state's tax revenues in January continued to run well below those of a year earlier, Controller John Chiang reported today, but were slightly higher than last year's budget forecasts.

The month-to-month flow of taxes has become a critical factor as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders negotiate on closing a $40 billion budget deficit and the state's cash reserves evaporate. Chiang has already delayed billions of dollars in state payments this month.

January's revenues were $2.18 billion below those of January 2008, with personal income taxes accounting for $1.62 billion of that decline.

"Right now the state has only $6 to pay for every $10 worth of bills, and the state's constitution and federal law are both clear on which payments have first claim to available funds," Chiang said. "In order to save the state from defaulting on those payments, I have no choice but to delay some payments. With receipts running this short, the Legislature and governor must move with all haste to craft a new budget with sound solutions."

The full monthly cash report is available here.

Let's hear it for Stockton. The San Joaquin Valley community has knocked Detroit out of first place in Forbes Magazine's ranking of the nation's 10 "most miserable cities."

Stockton surged to the top largely because it is "ground zero," the magazine says, for the housing industry meltdown - but it ranked high in other misery indices such as commute times, income tax rates, unemployment and violent crime.

"Stockton had the country's highest foreclosure rate last year at 9.5%, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed property," the magazine noted. "Things are not looking much brighter in 2009 as housing prices are expected to fall another 36% on the heels of a 39% drop in 2008. Also, unemployment is expected to jump to 13.3% from 10.4%, according to economic research firm Moody's Economy.com."

Forbes quotes Stockton Mayor Ann Johnson as saying, "We are engaging the entire community and encouraging everyone to get involved and help us find solutions that meet the needs of our community. Volunteerism is encouraged, looking out for your neighbor, and taking personal responsibility where individuals can make a difference. We are partnering with all community organizations - schools, churches, non-profits - to provide support services and help individuals and families get through these difficult times."

Stockton achieved its dubious honor in a survey of the nation's 150 most populous metropolitan areas and was followed by Memphis, Tenn., and Chicago. The full Forbes report is available here.


California not only has the nation's third highest unemployment rate but its Unemployment Insurance Fund has taken a bigger beating than any other state, a new report from the National Conference of State Legislatures indicates.

California's UIF dropped from $639.2 million to just $71.8 million during 2008 as unemployment soared to about 1.5 million workers, forcing it to join six other states in borrowing money from the federal government to keep the checks rolling out to the jobless.

The state's fund has depleted rapidly not only because of rising unemployment but because the Legislature has steadily increased weekly benefits to a maximum of $450, nearly double what it was in 2001, without raising payroll taxes on employers.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed to increase the taxable wage base, increase UI tax rates, dampen benefit growth and tighten up eligibility for benefits, but the Legislature so far has failed to act.

The full NCSL report, comparing California with other states, is available here.

The immensity of California's budget crisis is shown in a new 50-state fiscal survey by the National Conference of State Legislatures, indicating that California's income-outgo gap is nearly a third of the current state budget deficits for entire nation.

California's current shortfall has been pegged by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger at $15-plus billion while the new NCSL study says all states are reporting a $47.4 billion problem. Schwarzenegger says the state faces another $25 billion deficit 2009-10 and NCSL says that, too, approaches a third of the national state budget deficit of $84.3 billion.

While California's projected 2009-10 deficit of 22.3 percent of general fund spending is among the nation's worst in proportionate terms, there are states facing more horrendous deficits, including Nevada at 37.6 percent, Arizona at 28.2 percent and New York at 24.3 percent.

The full state-by-state report is accessible here.

Schools consume more than 40 percent of the state budget and are, therefore, a centerpiece of the convoluted politics of closing the state's whopping budget deficit, but few people - even few legislators - understand the complex manner by which California finances education.

The California Budget Project, a liberal think tank, has stepped into the ignorance void with a primer in school finance entitled "School Finance Facts" and it lives up to its title, laying out in layman's language how much money schools get and the various state, local and federal sources of those dollars.

The report is available here.

A large majority of California's high school students has at least tried alcohol or illicit drugs and use of prescription drugs is "occurring at an alarming rate," a new survey of the state's adolescents, released by the state Department of Justice, has found.

The 12th biennial California Student Survey collected alcohol and drug use data from 13,930 students from 115 public middle- and high schools during the 2007-08 school year. The survey was founded in 1985 by Professor Rodney Skager, professor emeritus at the UCLA Graduate School of Education and Information Studies.

"The most significant but disturbing overall finding of the 12th biennial survey is - because of underassessment of recreational use of prescription and over-the-counter drugs - we have previously underestimated actual levels of youth substance use," the report says. "New data show that 37 percent of 9th and 50 percent of 11th graders used either an illicit/illegal drug or a diverted prescription drug to get high at least once in their lifetime. Taking this into consideration, total lifetime use of alcohol and other drugs (AOD) use is estimated at 52 percent and 69 percent respectively. Including use of cold/cough medicines to get high, lifetime AOD 9th- grade use rises to 60 percent and 11th-grade use to 74 percent."

"By taking into account the entire range of drugs, of which alcohol is by far the most commonly used," Skager said in a statement, "it is obvious that the social climate among youth tolerates widespread drug experimentation and use, though not necessarily use that causes problems to self or others. We need to take this cultural reality into account in our approach to drug education and other approaches to prevention. In this climate simplistic abstinence messages, as well as accurate, information, are met with skepticism and may result in an oppositional or 'boomerang' effect."

The full survey is available here.

Sales of new cars and trucks in California plummeted by nearly one-fourth last year to the lowest level in 15 years, the California New Car Dealers Association reported today - adding that an additional decline is expected this year.

The 23 percent drop to 1.48 million vehicles, 443,570 fewer than in 2007, is expected to continue in 2009, albeit at a slower pace, the association said. It is forecasting that 1.23 million cars, vans and light trucks will be sold this year, down another 15.1 percent.

New car sales have been slipping in California for several years and the 2008 drop was sharper than the 18 percent recorded in the nation as a whole. The slippage has resulted in dozens of dealers closing their doors and has had a sharp impact on state and local sales tax revenues. The decline in 2008 alone meant a loss of about $700 million in sales tax revenues, although at least some of that loss would be offset by customers' opting for used cars, which are also taxed.

Last year also saw continuation of greater declines in sales of vehicles by the "Big 3 domestic automakers than those of Japanese and European firms. General Motors, for instance, lost nearly 5 percent of market share in California last year while Japanese firms gained 3 percent. The Toyota Camry was the single most popular new car last year.

Sharp increases in fuel prices, which later moderated, also drove buyers away from previously popular sports utility vehicles, vans and pickup trucks with passenger cars increasing their share of the declining market from 54.2 percent to 61 percent.

The full report is available here.

Private health insurers provide coverage to more than two-thirds of California's 38 million people, and five large insurers have three-quarters of the private market -- two of the details to be found in a new data-packed "almanac" of health care in California.

Health insurance is big business, with health insurers gathering $91.9 billion in revenues from Californians and their employers every year. That's roughly half of all health expenditures in the state, making it the largest single industry and several times larger than any other sector.

The almanac, launched by the California HealthCare Foundation, includes company-by-company numbers in what the foundation describes as "an online clearinghouse for key data on and analysis of California's health care marketplace. The almanac provides policymakers, industry decision-makers, and the media with one central access point to objective data on a range of important state health care topics, and houses many signature CHCF reports, as well as new trend pieces."

The new almanac can be accessed here.

Education Week magazine, in its annual state-by-state survey of public education, gives California an overall "C" grade, but the California Teachers Association is jumping on the state's "F" in school spending, which has dropped to 47th in the nation on a per-pupil basis.

"With the dismal budgets passed by the Legislature and signed by the governor in recent years, we are not surprised to learn that new figures released by Education Week...reveal that California's ranking has dropped another spot to 47th in the nation and lags the national average by nearly $2,400," CTA president David Sanchez said. He called it "appalling that the state with the eighth largest economy in the world would allow this to happen."

The Education Week data were released as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislators wrestle with a budget deficit estimated at $40 billion over the next 18 months with schools the largest single item in the budget and the most contentious spending issue. Although Schwarzenegger and Democratic leaders have agreed that school spending must be cut, they disagree on the extent and form of the reductions.

Although California received an "F" in school spending, its overall grade on education finance was a "C" due to its "A-minus" rating for equity of finances. The only other area in which it scored in the top ranks was in setting and enforcing academic standards, another "A-minus."

The full California summary is available here.

California, with its huge immigrant population, has the lowest adult literacy of any state, according to a new U.S. Department of Education study, and it's 50 percent worse than it was a decade earlier.

The report is extrapolated from a 2003 national survey testing adults' ability to comprehend a simple bloc of English text. The survey found that 23 percent of adult Californians could not pass that test, up from 15 percent in a 1992 survey.

New York was just one percentage point lower than California, while other states ranged downward to the 6-7 percent level.

Not surprisingly, California counties with high proportions of foreign-born or first-generation farm workers had the state's highest levels of adult illiteracy in the survey, topped by 41 percent in poverty-stricken Imperial County. Conversely, high-income and mostly white suburban counties had the lowest rates with Marin, Nevada, El Dorado and Placer the lowest at 7 percent, just about the rate of the nation's most literate states.

Sacramento County's rate came in at 13 percent.

The full report from the National Assessment of Adult Literacy is available here and California's county-by-county chart can be found here.

January 7, 2009
Recession hits medical care

California hospitals are seeing more uninsured patients and more who cannot pay their bills due to the state's severe recession, the California Hospital Association says in a new survey of its members.

The survey of hospital financial officers in November found a 73 percent increase in patients having difficulty paying their bills and a 33 percent increase in uninsured patients, plus a 30 percent drop in demand for elective medical procedures.

"As more people lose their jobs in this declining economy, they also are losing their job-based health insurance," said CHA president Duane Dauner. "The growing number of uninsured patients, coupled with inadequate Medi-Cal payments and the ripple effects of the financial market crisis, is leading to a decline in the financial health of California's hospitals at the very time when demand for health care services is growing."

CHA notes that the state has the 49th lowest number of hospital beds in relationship to population and is dead last among the states in relative financing of Medi-Cal, the state's health program for the poor. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and other state officials have asked for a multibillion-dollar boost in federal funds for the program to relieve pressure on the deficit-ridden state budget.

A copy of the full CHA survey is available here.

A new study of voting patterns on Proposition 8, the November ballot measure that would outlaw same-sex marriage, concludes that African American support, reported by exit pollsters at 70 percent, was at least 10 percentage points lower.

The high reported support levels among black and Latino voters for the measure, which won voter approval but is now being challenged in court, led to post-election controversy and conclusions that non-white voters provided the margin of victory for Proposition 8.

The new study, commissioned by the San Francisco-based Evelyn and Walter Hass Jr. Fund and released by a consortium of gay rights groups, was conducted by two New York college researchers. It concludes that party affiliation, political ideology, frequency of attending church and age "were the driving forces behind the measure's passage" rather than ethnicity.

When voting results were adjusted for those factors, the researchers concluded, "support for Proposition 8 among African Americanss and Latinos was not significantly different than other groups." They put overall black support for Proposition 8 at "no more than 59 percent" rather than the 70 percent found in exist polls of voters.


"These figures point the way to winning marriage equality for same-sex couples sooner rather than later," said Jaime Grant, Ph.D., director of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force Policy Institute. "Convincing the Republican Party that continued gay bashing will cripple its future is one; another is accelerating the already strong surge in support among young voters."

The full study is available here.

California home sales jumped by 83.2 percent in November from a year earlier, but with much of the sales activity in foreclosed houses, the median sales price dropped by 41.8 percent, the California Association of Realtors said today.

Despite the year-to-year increase in sales, CAR said that November was the first month since the first quarter of this year to see a month-to-month decline in sales and attributed it to the state's worsening economy.

"Despite the month-over-month decline, sales were above the 500,000 home level for the third consecutive month," CAR president James Liptak said. "Sales are now 102 percent above the monthly trough for this cycle, which occurred a year ago in September and October, and are 22.3 percent above sales in 2007 in year-to-date terms."

There were 514,710 closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California last month, a seasonably adjusted number. A county-by-county and city-by-city breakdown is available here.

While Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislators negotiate on health and welfare spending cuts to help close a yawning state budget deficit, the liberal California Budget Project is warning that those "safety net" services are feeling intense pressure from worsening economic conditions.

"These tough economic times underscore the vital role that government plays in people's lives. Public programs provide a lifeline that help keep California's families afloat when they struggle to make ends meet," said Jean Ross, executive director of the CBP. "As policymakers work to solve California's fiscal crisis, they should be mindful that we're in an economic downturn where it's more important than ever that California retain a strong safety net for those in need."

The report, a program-by-program snapshot of social service and health program demand, is available here.

The state's demographers calculated that six months ago, California's population passed 38 million, which provides a benchmark for placing its whopping budget deficit in perspective.

The Department of Finance, which figured out the new population numbers, also has estimated that the budget has a $40 billion deficit over the next 18 months, which works out to just over $1,000 for every man, woman and child in the state.

The plan to reduce the deficit by nearly half that Democrats ginned up this week relied primarily on a complex reconfiguration of taxes and fees that would have netted an estimated $9.3 billion in new revenues over the 18 months, which would have averaged about $245 per person or nearly $1,000 for a family of four.

The biggest single item in the budget is K-12 education, which costs the state, under the current budget, $42 billion or $7,000 for each of the state's 6 million students (not counting local property taxes or federal funds).

The fastest growing major program in recent years has been the prison system, which now costs taxpayers more than $10 billion or well over $60,000 per inmate, although prison officials say the incremental cost of keeping one inmate for one year is closer to $45,000, six times what the state spends for every elementary and high school student.

Higher education - the state's two four-year college and university systems and community colleges - are another big category. State funds and local property taxes (which partially support community colleges) amount to $14.2 billion in the current budget, two-thirds of the cost of running the systems. Student fees make up most of the remainder.

California saw an 11 percent expansion in charter schools - independently operated schools within school districts - this year and enrollment in the 750 schools has climbed to more than a quarter-million students, according to a new report from the California Charter Schools Association.

The report indicates that the charter school movement continues to expand despite opposition from some traditional education groups, including unions. "The charter school movement continues to grow because charter schools deliver results," said Peter Thorp, interim CEO of the association. "It is exciting that new charter schools are replicating best practices and expanding access to highly successful public school models for more families in California."

Charter school expansion appears to be especially strong in large urban districts, including the state's largest, Los Angeles Unified, which saw 23 new charter schools opened this year. LAUSD, with 148 charter schools, has the largest number of any district in the nation.

In some large districts, more than 10 percent of students are in charter schools. But charter schools still handle fewer than 5 percent of the state's six million K-12 public school students.

The full report is available here.

California home sales picked up in 2008 but median prices continued to decline - by 17.8 percent - as foreclosures continued to create what the California Association of Realtors terms "a turbulent year" in the state's bellwether housing market.

CAR says after two years of steep declines in sales activity, home sales are expected to rise by 12 percent and hit 395,000 by the end of the year, with another 12.5 percent increase forecast for 2009. However, CAR says in its annual report on real estate activity, more than a fifth of the sales this year were at a loss to homeowners, many of them distress sales with the threat of foreclosure.

The median home sales price dropped 17.8 percent from $535,000 in 2007 to $440,000 this year, the largest yearly decline ever recorded by CAR, surpassing the 10.2 percent drop in 1995.

The full report must be purchased and downloaded and is available here.

Despite one of the worst recessions in California, the state's population still gained more than 400,000 persons in the 2007-08 fiscal year that ended last summer, the state's demographers say, and topped 38 million for the first time.

The new estimates from the state Department of Finance, based on a series of indices, continue a dispute with the Census Bureau, which contends that California has roughly a million persons fewer, thanks to an outflow of people to other states that the state's people-counters contend hasn't occurred.

A strong birth rate, one of the nation's highest, and a continued influx of foreign immigrants fueled a 1.16 percent, 436,000-person gain during the year, the Department of Finance said in its analysis of the data. Its demographers counted 571,000 births and 242,000 deaths for a "natural increase" of 329,000, three-fourths of the state's overall growth.

The state believes that the state's population has grown by 4.3 million since the 2000 census to 38,148,000, while the Census Bureau has a lower number, with the difference being the effects of state-to-state movement. Presumably the 2010 census will settle the dispute.

Placer was the state's fastest growing county during the year, 2.6 percent, followed by Imperial and Riverside. Three counties lost population, including a 4.22 percent loss in Alpine, the state's smallest county with just 1,202 persons, down 497 since 2007.

The full report is available here.

A record 13.7 million Californians voted in last month's election, shattering the previous record by 1.1 million ballots, Secretary of State Debra Bowen says in a final report on the election.

The percentage of registered voters who cast ballots in November, 79.4 percent, was the highest since 1976, Bowen's office calculated, but still well under the all-time record of 88.4 percent in 1964. "This was an election for the record books," Bowen said in a statement as she released the final report.

Sonoma County had the state's highest voter turnout at 93.4 percent while Merced County, at 66.6 percent, had the lowest turnout. Even at 79.4 percent of registration, however, fewer than 60 percent of Californians who are eligible to vote (18 years or older and citizens) actually cast ballots.

The election also continued Californians' penchant for voting by mail, with 41.6 percent of ballots cast in that manner. The full election report is available here.

California has more men and women locked up in prison than any other state, a new federal report finds, and unlike any other state, the vast majority of those placed behind bars are parole violators.

The report bolsters contentions by critics of the much-overcrowded prison system that state parole officers, who belong to the same union as prison guards, are extraordinarily willing to slap a parole inmate back behind bars, thereby exacerbating a prison overcrowding problem.

California's prisons, the U.S. Department of Justice report says, had 174,282 inmates in 2007, and although it was one of the few states to show a decline in inmate population - 1,230 fewer than in 206 - the total surpassed every other state, beating out second-place Texas by about 4,000 felons. California's total, in fact, was almost identical to the entire prison population of the northeastern states, including New York.

On average, the nation's state and federal prisons took in almost two new offenders for every parole violator, but in California, the reverse is true. In 2007, California prisons took in 139,608 inmates and 92,628 of them were parole violators, almost a 2-1 ratio. In only one other state, Washington, did parole violators outnumber those being jailed by the courts, and that was only by 126 inmates.

The new data provide new ammunition for critics of the system, who have long complained about the propensity of parole officers to send their charges back behind bars. "California's prison crisis is a parole crisis," said Margaret Dooley-Sammuli, spokeswoman for the Drug Policy Alliance. "The state puts too many people under supervision for too long - and is too quick to return them to prison. It's hog-tying the criminal justice system and draining the state budget."

With the state budget running multi-billion-dollar deficits, the governor and the Legislature have been mulling whether to cut prison costs by releasing more low-risk inmates, but conservatives and anti-crime groups have refused to budge on the issue.

The new Department of Justice report is available here.

Although California's system of compensating workers for job-related disabilities has been overhauled to reduce employers' costs by as much as $15 billion a year, the state still ranks near the top in those costs, according to a new nationwide survey.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has often touted the 2004 workers' compensation changes as one of his best achievements, drawing kudos from business groups, while lawyers representing injured workers, labor unions and medical care providers have complained that they went too far.

The 2008 Industry Week Workers' Compensation State Ranking, however, lists California as next to last in terms of employer burden, with only Alaska having a higher burden. The survey analyzed not only work comp insurance premiums, but benefit payments per injured worker and per-capita payments.

A separate survey, conducted by the Oregon Department of Consumer and Business Services, weighed only insurance premiums and California ranked 38th, while Alaska had the highest costs. The surveys were reported in Smart's Workers' Comp Bulletin.

The economists at UCLA's quarterly Anderson Forecast have more grim projections about the national and California economy.

In a report released today, the economists forecast a "nasty recession" that will be marked by four quarters of declining gross domestic product.

The economists project that national unemployment will soar to 8.5 percent by late 2009.

Here in California, the economists project "high unemployment into 2010."

"Unemployment is going to continue to be ugly," the forecast says of California. "There is no suggestion in the data that we are near (the) bottom."

The more general downturn in economic activity and concomitant job loss will soften the California housing market even further. So foreclosures will continue and residential construction and manufacturing of home furnishings and appliances will contract through the 2nd quarter of 2009 and begin to turn around closer to the end of '09.

As large as it is, California's projected budget deficit may be only the third worst among the states according to a new survey by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Arizona, with a projected 24.2 percent deficit next year and New York at 20 percent are deeper in the hole than California at 18 percent, the NCSL survey found. In terms of actual dollars, however, California easily leads the pack. Overall, NCSL says, states face $97 billion in additional budget deficits over the next 18 to 24 months and California, at $28 billion and growing, approaches a third of the total.

"These budget gaps are approaching those seen in the last recession, which were the worst since World War II, and show every sign of growing larger," says William T. Pound, NCSL's executive director. "While the data we collected from state legislative fiscal officers are pretty sobering, our discussions with legislative leaders tell us that they expect the problem to only get worse."

More on the NCSL report is available here.

Officially, 1.5 million California workers are unemployed, half again as many as were jobless a year ago, due to the state's severe recession. But the liberal California Budget Project says the number swells to well over 2 million when disappointed jobseekers and the underemployed are counted.

When someone stops looking for work, they are no longer counted as part of the labor force and therefore are no longer officially unemployed. The CBP says there are about 200,000 Californians in that category, and another 800,000-plus who are in part-time jobs because full-time jobs are not available.

The CBP calculations are accessible here.

In the midst of a historically severe state budget crisis, the Census Bureau has released new data indicating that when it comes to spending money, California stands alone among the states.

The new Census Bureau report tags total state spending last year at $233.6 billion, roughly 15 percent of the state's economic output. The total includes not only the state's general fund spending, roughly $100 billion, but proceeds of special fund revenues, such as gasoline taxes, borrowed money and federal funds.

California's total is about half-again as big as the second-place state, New York, and well over twice that of Texas. It is, moreover, 65 times as much as that of the least-spending state, South Dakota.

Not surprisingly, California's total spending last year was $33 billion more than its total revenues, with bond proceeds accounting for most of the difference. The largest spending category was education at $72.8 billion, followed by welfare at $56.3 billion and health care, including hospitals, at $17.7 billion.

The Census Bureau says California was $114.7 billion in debt last year. The full report, including finances of other states, is available here.

If you are looking for the story breaking down the cuts and taxes in the budget voted on by lawmakers on Tuesday, find that here. Due to a mistaken link in the PM Alert, you have arrived on this page.

The nation has 8.6 million children who lack public or private health insurance and 1.3 million of them are in California, Families USA, a Washington-based advocate for expanded health access, says in a report based on new census data.

California, the nation's most populous state, is just behind Texas in the numbered of medically uninsured children, Families USA says, and at 12.5 percent has the nation's 12th highest rate. Texas is No. 1 at 20.5 percent.

Families USA, confirming previous reports, says that 88.2 percent of uninsured children come from families with at least one working adult. Families without earned income usually qualify for one of the public medical plans such as Medi-Cal. It's been estimated that more than 6 million of the state's 38 million residents lack health insurance.

Last year, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger tried and failed to gain legislative approval of a plan to cover virtually all of the state's uninsured residents. The full Families USA report is available here.


California's economic climate continues to deteriorate as the unemployment rate in the state jumped another one-half of a percentage point to 8.2 percent in October, according to the state's unemployment division.

The state lost 26,400 nonfarm payroll jobs in the month, according to the California Employment Development Department.

The state has the third highest unemployment rate in the nation. From October 2007 to October 2008, California lost a total 101,300 jobs, the report estimates.

The Schwarzenegger administration's latest survey of the California economy and state revenues doesn't look any brighter, describing the employment picture and continued declines in housing construction as "unwelcome news."

The administration has warned that the state will run out of cash by early next year unless the Legislature agrees on a package of spending cuts and tax increases to close a yawning budget deficit, thus allowing the state treasurer to float more short-term "revenue anticipation notes."

Without a revised budget, state officials fear, they will be unable to persuade lenders that the notes will be repaid by June. Overall state revenues during October did not change that forecast, with revenues running even with the much-revised estimates the administration made as it urged the Legislature to act quickly on spending cuts and new taxes.

So far, the Legislature has continued to be stalemated, with time running out on a special lameduck session. Both legislative houses have scheduled floor sessions on Sunday, the last day legislative leaders say they could act. But there are no signs of a political breakthrough, and those sessions are expected to be nothing more than what Capitol insiders call a "drill" - many speeches but no action.

The full Department of Finance monthly bulletin is available here

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's plan to close the state's budget deficit includes new taxes on beer, wine, whiskey and other distilled liquors that the administration describes as a "nickel a drink" that would raise nearly $600 million a year.

The California Taxpayers Association says it's obtained details of the proposed new taxes on alcoholic beverages, to wit:

-The tax on beer would climb from 20 cents a gallon to 73 cents;

-The tax on wine, now 20 cents a gallon on most forms, would jump by $1.28; and

-Taxes on whiskey, vodka and other distilled spirits would go from $3.30 a gallon to $7.57.

The Cal-Tax report is available here.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger earns a mediocre "C" grade in an appraisal of U.S. governors' handling of state finances by the libertarian-oriented Cato Institute.

The appraisal was issued, however, in late October, a couple of weeks before Schwarzenegger announced that the state's current budget, which he signed in late September, has already developed an $11.2 billion deficit due to declining revenues.

Governors were rated on how well they restrained spending earlier in the decade, when revenues were increasing sharply and how they handled tax policy. Florida Republican Charlie Crist, who has teamed up with Schwarzenegger on environmental issues, was rated the highest with a score of 84 on a scale of 100. Two other governors received "A" grades, South Carolina Republican Mark Sanford and West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin.

Schwarzenegger's score was 51 and he was one of eight governors receiving "C" grades, four Republicans and four Democrats. The full report is available here.

After a steady rise for much of the last year, California's unemployment rate remained unchanged from August to September at 7.7 percent.

Last month, the rate jumped three-tenths of a point -- putting the state in a tie for third-worst unemployment rate in the nation.

The latest figures come from the California Employment Development Department.

October 14, 2008
California by the Numbers


A recent Census Bureau report rated California as having the nation's 8th lowest level of medical insurance among the states, with nearly 7 million of its residents under 65 years old lacking health insurance.

A new study by the Washington-based Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank, paints with an even darker health insurance picture in California - the nation's 5th lowest level of employer-supplied health insurance at 56.3 percent of its population.

That's about 6 percentage points below the national average, which has been falling steadily, as has California's level. The institute says California's rate of employer-based health insurance has dropped by 3.4 percentage points since 2000, with nearly 221,000 fewer Californians with employer insurance in 2007.

California's 56.3 percent rate is higher only than Arkansas (55.5 percent), Mississippi (53.7 percent), Texas (53.5 percent) and New Mexico (50.7 percent.

The full report is available here.

- Dan Walters



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Capitol Alert Staff


Torey Van Oot Torey Van Oot covers the California Legislature and state politics. tvanoot@sacbee.com. Twitter: @CapitolAlert

Amy Chance Amy Chance is political editor for The Sacramento Bee. achance@sacbee.com. Twitter: @Amy_Chance

Dan Smith Dan Smith is Capitol bureau chief for The Sacramento Bee. smith@sacbee.com

Micaela Massimino Micaela Massimino writes the AM and PM Alerts. mmassimino@sacbee.com

Laurel Rosenhall Laurel Rosenhall covers the lobbying community and higher education. lrosenhall@sacbee.com. Twitter: @LaurelRosenhall

Jim Sanders Jim Sanders covers the state Legislature. jsanders@sacbee.com

David Siders David Siders covers the Brown administration. dsiders@sacbee.com. Twitter: @davidsiders

Dan Walters Dan Walters is a columnist for The Sacramento Bee. dwalters@sacbee.com. Twitter: @WaltersBee

Kevin Yamamura Kevin Yamamura covers the state budget. kyamamura@sacbee.com. Twitter: @kyamamura

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