This probably isn't a good omen for Schwarzenegger.
Posted by dweintraub at 12:34 PM
An emailer reading my post yesterday on the likelihood of a tax increase next year reminds me that earlier this year I encourged Republicans to consider raising taxes on the upper income crowd to beat Rob Reiner to the punch. With Reiner now fully engaged in qualifying his state-controlled, subsidized preschool for all measure for the June ballot, won't the same logic apply in the spring? Good point. There may come a time, shortly before the June election, if the polls show the Reiner measure ahead with no chance of losing, that Republicans might have to consider jumping in line ahead of him. His measure is written to say that if the Legislature raises the same taxes he is trying to raise, and does it first, his pre-school program won't be implemented until 2010. So the governor and the Legislature could decide to take that money and use it to pay for services the state is already providing without the money to pay for them. It would not be a temporary tax increase, but it would be a temporary float for the general fund before the preschool program goes into effect. Given that most Republicans will oppose the Reiner measure on principle -- against raising taxes and against state control of preschool -- it will be interesting to see if they are willing to set aside one of those principles for the greater good in the face of the inevitable.
Posted by dweintraub at 8:59 AM
New poll results this morning from the LA Times and SurveyUSA. The Times has all four of the governor's measures losing. SurveyUSA, which had all four winning handily a month ago, now has 74 and 75 too close to call, 77 losing and 76 all over the map, depending on how the question is asked.
Here's a round-up of results from the five polls that have polled in California at least back to the 2003 recall. Three are traditional, live phone polls -- LA Times, Field and PPIC. Two use new techniques. SurveyUSA uses recorded voices asking the questions, and the Stanford/Knowledge Networks poll uses an online questionaire given to a pre-screened sample of voters.
76: see below
On 76, SurveyUSA asked the question three different ways. The first was bare bones on a spending limit. The second mentioned that it would give the governor new powers to cut spending. The third added that it would give the governor the power to cut schools. With each added detail, the measure did worse.
Version A: 49-49
Version B: 42-56
Version C: 36-61
Posted by dweintraub at 6:36 AM