Home Front

A blog about the economy and the Sacramento-area real estate market.

September 5, 2008
Should he buy or should he wait?
istock_house_2255618hirgb_4.jpg

 Dear readers, we have work for you today. Mike has written from Fresno asking the question on so many minds in the Central Valley: Should I buy or should I wait?

 As you'll see, he is waiting for the market to go lower. But he seems to want to buy and is expressing the confusion I have heard a lot about who is right in the battle for public opinion about this downturn. I asked him if it's OK to run his letter and seek advice and he welcomed it. So enough from me. Here is Mike from Fresno.

"I am just a little guy, a father of three who listened to the gurus at the WSJ who said, "Ignore all Realtors and their propaganda," during the real estate bubble. 

How happy I am for it is beyond words.
 
 Of course, I still want a home, and have been salivating as prices have crashed in the Clovis/Fresno area.  However, there still remains a large gap between what the prices should be vs. where they are now based on median income levels (score another victory for the WSJ crew who preached this way of looking at the market when creative loans were all the rave, wisdom aside).

 I also see that following the small reset of subprime loans, there is a virtual mountain  of 5 year resets on the horizon with California of all places leading the way.

Where I am going with this:  I know the tidal wave is coming, a wave of foreclosures, REOs, and auctions that will likely dwarf the subprime reset.  So, I am completely shocked at the number of realty-related talking heads who are staring blank eyed at the masses with giant car-salesmen smiles on their faces saying, "We are almost at the end, the end is in sight, the housing market is stabilizing, etc.."

And here is the punch line we all heard 5 years ago, "This is the best time to buy!"  

Am I missing something?  One group says, "Don't worry," and another says, "Run for the hills." 

My money is on being patient and waiting for the next (and bigger) batch of loans to default, even with the inevitable rise in interest rates over the next year.  My questions to you is this: do you see the conflicting lines of thinking and which do you feel is right?  More importantly, do you think I am doing the smart thing for me and my family by waiting until the first & second quarters of next year to buy a house?

 Thanks for listening, and hopefully responding."

 Mike Car

Fresno, CA

What should he do, Sacramento?

Image: kerincantell.files.wordpress.com


About Comments

Reader comments on Sacbee.com are the opinions of the writer, not The Sacramento Bee. If you see an objectionable comment, click the "report abuse" button below it. We will delete comments containing inappropriate links, obscenities, hate speech, and personal attacks. Flagrant or repeat violators will be banned. See more about comments here.

What You Should Know About Comments on Sacbee.com

Sacbee.com is happy to provide a forum for reader interaction, discussion, feedback and reaction to our stories. However, we reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments or ban users who can't play nice. (See our full terms of service here.)

Here are some rules of the road:

• Keep your comments civil. Don't insult one another or the subjects of our articles. If you think a comment violates our guidelines click the "report abuse" button to notify the moderators. Responding to the comment will only encourage bad behavior.

• Don't use profanities, vulgarities or hate speech. This is a general interest news site. Sometimes, there are children present. Don't say anything in a way you wouldn't want your own child to hear.

• Do not attack other users; focus your comments on issues, not individuals.

• Stay on topic. Only post comments relevant to the article at hand. If you want to discuss an issue with a specific user, click on his profile name and send him a direct message.

• Do not copy and paste outside material into the comment box.

• Don't repeat the same comment over and over. We heard you the first time.

• Do not use the commenting system for advertising. That's spam and it isn't allowed.

• Don't use all capital letters. That's akin to yelling and not appreciated by the audience.

You should also know that The Sacramento Bee does not screen comments before they are posted. You are more likely to see inappropriate comments before our staff does, so we ask that you click the "report abuse" button to submit those comments for moderator review. You also may notify us via email at feedback@sacbee.com. Note the headline on which the comment is made and tell us the profile name of the user who made the comment. Remember, comment moderation is subjective. You may find some material objectionable that we won't and vice versa.

If you submit a comment, the user name of your account will appear along with it. Users cannot remove their own comments once they have submitted them, but you may ask our staff to retract one of your comments by sending an email to feedback@sacbee.com. Again, make sure you note the headline on which the comment is made and tell us your profile name.

hide comments

On October 14, The Sacramento Bee will temporarily remove commenting from sacbee.com. While we design the upgrade, we encourage you to tell us what you like and don't like about commenting on sacbee.com and other websites. We've heard from hundreds of you already and we're listening. Please continue to add your thoughts and questions here. We also encourage you to write Letters to the Editor on this and other topics.



Jim Wasserman on Twitter

Follow "jimwasserman" on Twitter

October 2013

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31