Home Front

A blog about the economy and the Sacramento-area real estate market.

February 9, 2009
Whither bottom?

How many times have we asked this question - where is bottom of this housing market - and seen it pushed farther into the future?

 One more time today, comes Moody's Economy.com, pushing it out until the fourth quarter of this year for El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties. And the second quarter of 2010 for Yuba and Sutter counties.

It's all here in this sobering report just in from Moody's.

"The Bubble is now deflating with a veangeance," it says. 

By the end of this year, the report said, home prices will have fallen 54.2 percent in the four-county capital region from a fourth quarter 2005 peak.

Prices will have fallen 49.6 percent from a first quarter 2006 peak in Yuba and Sutter counties, it said.

Probably it's because this region took such drastic hits last year in home values, but Sacramento appears to be closer to bottom than most big housing boom players.

 Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, Phoenix and Las Vegas aren't expected to reach bottom until 2010, the report said. Much of Florida won't see bottom until 2011, it added.

Others reaching bottom alongside Sacramento in the fourth quarter of 2009 include Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Bakersfield, Moody's predicted. Modesto will follow in the second quarter of 2010, it said.

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