Home Front

A blog about the economy and the Sacramento-area real estate market.

November 20, 2009
Friday catch-up: A look at U.S. and California loan delinquencies

In the crush of yesterday's deadlines I wasn't able to get these news releases online detailing the wobbly state of the nation's - and California's - home loan delinquencies and foreclosures from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

So we go: first  a look at California. (This isn't pretty, but all I can say is be glad you don't live in Florida, where it's so much worse).

Secondly, here's a national view. (Much of the carnage remains in four states: Nevada, Florida, Arizona and California).

I sat in on the national conference call with reporters, a list that seems to be diminishing a little as the worst of the housing problem has shrunk to the Sunbelt.

Here's the podcast of that call.

Brinkman Podcast photo.jpg The main point by VP, and Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann is this: prime loans, including the safe 30-year fixed-rate benchmarks, have replaced subprime loans as the leading edge of delinquencies now as joblessness has moved up the ladder to reach the better-off borrowers.

"Clearly the results have been driven by the changes in employment" he said. "We've had about a 5.5 million increase in the number of unemployed the last year. That compares with an increase of about 2 million loans that are past due."

And it's harder to get out of trouble now when it finds you, Brinkmann said.

"We went into the recession with a weakened housing market. So the impact was when people lost their jobs they were less likely to recover by selling the house. There was less equity in it and that translated to more foreclosures. Unemployment went up and now both the jobless rate the foreclosure rate are both going up together."

For prime borrowers it's become an endurance contest, he said.

"Prime borrowers usually have reserves. They can hold out. But the longer the problem takes place the more will fall," he said. What he means is: for a lot of borrowers this is a race between their savings and when they can find another job. 

As for Florida?


- 12.7 percent of the state's mortgages are in the foreclosure pipeline between a notice of default and handing back the keys - and 25 percent more are at least 30 days late with payments.

 "It's going to take Florida well into the end of 2011 to clear out what's currently on the books," said Brinkmann about repo inventory. "And then the new ones are coming in. We may not see anything change there until well into 2012 and even into 2013."

Photo: Mortgage Bankers Association


About Comments

Reader comments on Sacbee.com are the opinions of the writer, not The Sacramento Bee. If you see an objectionable comment, click the "report abuse" button below it. We will delete comments containing inappropriate links, obscenities, hate speech, and personal attacks. Flagrant or repeat violators will be banned. See more about comments here.

What You Should Know About Comments on Sacbee.com

Sacbee.com is happy to provide a forum for reader interaction, discussion, feedback and reaction to our stories. However, we reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments or ban users who can't play nice. (See our full terms of service here.)

Here are some rules of the road:

• Keep your comments civil. Don't insult one another or the subjects of our articles. If you think a comment violates our guidelines click the "report abuse" button to notify the moderators. Responding to the comment will only encourage bad behavior.

• Don't use profanities, vulgarities or hate speech. This is a general interest news site. Sometimes, there are children present. Don't say anything in a way you wouldn't want your own child to hear.

• Do not attack other users; focus your comments on issues, not individuals.

• Stay on topic. Only post comments relevant to the article at hand. If you want to discuss an issue with a specific user, click on his profile name and send him a direct message.

• Do not copy and paste outside material into the comment box.

• Don't repeat the same comment over and over. We heard you the first time.

• Do not use the commenting system for advertising. That's spam and it isn't allowed.

• Don't use all capital letters. That's akin to yelling and not appreciated by the audience.

You should also know that The Sacramento Bee does not screen comments before they are posted. You are more likely to see inappropriate comments before our staff does, so we ask that you click the "report abuse" button to submit those comments for moderator review. You also may notify us via email at feedback@sacbee.com. Note the headline on which the comment is made and tell us the profile name of the user who made the comment. Remember, comment moderation is subjective. You may find some material objectionable that we won't and vice versa.

If you submit a comment, the user name of your account will appear along with it. Users cannot remove their own comments once they have submitted them, but you may ask our staff to retract one of your comments by sending an email to feedback@sacbee.com. Again, make sure you note the headline on which the comment is made and tell us your profile name.

hide comments

On October 14, The Sacramento Bee will temporarily remove commenting from sacbee.com. While we design the upgrade, we encourage you to tell us what you like and don't like about commenting on sacbee.com and other websites. We've heard from hundreds of you already and we're listening. Please continue to add your thoughts and questions here. We also encourage you to write Letters to the Editor on this and other topics.

Jim Wasserman on Twitter

Follow "jimwasserman" on Twitter

October 2013

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
    1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31