Here are some facts and points that stood out for their contention that it's going to be slow around here (Sacramento) for another three or four years to work off the excesses of overspending, overbuilding and racking up too much debt during the boom.
Sacramento-area jobs lost during recession: 90,000
Jobs lost statewide: 1 million
Number of state jobs lost so
Percentage of empty office space in the region: 15.8
Percentage of area retail space sitting empty: 12
Percentage of industrial space sitting vacant: 11.6
Region's home sales in 2009: 2,814
Percentage of area new-home sales under $400,000: 83
Number of area new-home projects: 125
Number of new-home projects in 2005: 375
Region's unemployment rate: 12.4 percent, possibly rising to peak of 13.5 percent. State budget crisis impact on capital economy is a wild card.
Two to three years of no new commercial construction.
Four to five years of very little small business formation.
Remaining uncertainty about scale of residential foreclosures
No "tsunami" of commercial foreclosures; will come in waves for next five years.
Slight rise in new home construction after 2009 bottom.
No double-dip recession likely
Interest rates rise in 2010
Sources: Colliers International, The Gregory Group, Beacon Economics, California Employment Development Department.