Here are some facts and points that stood out for their contention that it's going to be slow around here (Sacramento) for another three or four years to work off the excesses of overspending, overbuilding and racking up too much debt during the boom.
Sacramento-area jobs lost during recession: 90,000
Jobs lost statewide: 1
million
Number of state jobs lost so
far in
Percentage of empty office
space in the region: 15.8
Percentage of area retail
space sitting empty: 12
Percentage of industrial
space sitting vacant: 11.6
Region's home sales in 2009:
2,814
Percentage of area new-home
sales under $400,000: 83
Number of area new-home
projects: 125
Number of new-home projects
in 2005: 375
Region's unemployment rate:
12.4 percent, possibly rising to peak of 13.5 percent. State budget crisis
impact on capital economy is a wild card.
Expectations for
Two to three years of no new
commercial construction.
Four to five years of very
little small business formation.
Remaining uncertainty about
scale of residential foreclosures
No "tsunami" of commercial
foreclosures; will come in waves for next five years.
Slight rise in new home
construction after 2009 bottom.
No double-dip recession
likely
Interest rates rise in 2010
Sources: Colliers International,
The Gregory Group, Beacon Economics, California Employment Development
Department.
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