With the NBA Finals beginning tomorrow night, I'm predicting the Miami Heat prevail in six games - for these reasons:
* The NBA hasn't seen speed, athleticism and defensive intensity of this caliber since Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. The combination of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and, now, Udonis Haslem, is simply suffocating. When they move the ball, push the pace and play with this degree of syncronicity, Erik Spoelstra's club is virtually unbeatable.
* A healthy Haslem and Mike Miller (outside shooting and rebounding) are providing the depth the Heat lacked throughout most of the season.
* Dirk Nowitzki is a future Hall of Famer, but who else scores for the Mavs?
* Based on sheer talent, the Heat-Lakers would have been a more compelling championship series ... if the Lakers hadn't lost their way and Phil Jackson hadn't gone off the reservation.
* The intangibles proabably - probably - favor the Mavs, mainly because of experience and Dirk Nowitzki's lengthy quest for a title. But, please, stop with the comparisons to Larry Bird. Bird was a far superior rebounder, passer, playmaker. We're talking one of the game's all-time greats here. That said, Nowitzki is a 7-foot phenom, and after the Mavs' previous failure in the Finals, he's driven to make the most of his opportunity.
* Rick Carlisle and Erik Spoelstra have distinguished themselves as young, willful personalities who emphasize defense and can overcome the challenges that usually occur during 82-game seasons. Carlisle has learned from a few bruises incurred during his previous tenure in Indiana and Detroit, while Spoelstra is benefitting from his pedigree (his father Jon Spoelstra was a longtime NBA exec) and Pat Riley's omnipresence. As Paul Westphal said a few months ago, Riley basically "pantsed" the league with his aggressive and successful pursuit of James and Bosh. And long before teams became infatuated with "analytics" in player evaluations, Riley quietly was crunching the numbers and outworking his opponents. He might even be a better personnel guru than coach. Who knew?
So back to Spoelstra. What other 40-year-old coach has handled so many challenges with so much aplomb?
News, observations and reader questions about the Sacramento Kings and the NBA.
May 30, 2011
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